AIR - Air NZ.

[777]

......i just buy them when they are low and sell them when they are high. I seem to make money doing this. KISS.

Exactly. Why complicate things.

[Hoop]

To clarify – I should have said that Air went below my Trailing Stop Loss.

When I first purchased I set my original stop loss at $2.33. This was set at this as I was looking at the biggest loss I could accept.
I then went back over the last years drops in AIR & found the largest was about 14.5% drop over a one week period.
I set my trailing stop loss at that 14.5% of the highest close price, so when it got to $3.23 on 26 Jan this set my Trailing stop loss at $2.76.

When the price went below $2.76 last Friday I should have cashed in and paid off my loan.
But what I did was look at if I could still afford a small loss, invest a little more & take a little more risk for a higher gain (Hopefully).
So I revised my Stop loss down to half way between the original SL $2.33 & my TSL $2.76 which is now $2.54

I’ll set my TSL at 14.61% so that it will cut in when/if the price gets to $2.98
i.e. 2.98 x (1-0.1461) = $2.54 which is the same as my present stop loss.

So I am not totally forgetting about my Stop Loss, I am just reassessing what risk I am prepared to take.

Could have saved time writing all the complex and intelligent formula words and just say.."I was naughty, I broke my discipline"..
Actually you created a bigger investor sin...not only did you ignore your stop loss, you bought more to averaged down..

You must have Irish genes..

Luck of the Irish

This isn't luck at all, but more of an attitude, a positive look at a bad situation.

The Irish didn't survive a potato famine, and being treated as 3rd class citizens upon their arrival to the U.S. (til the mid-late 1900's)by not having a positive outlook and a great sense of humor!

Mary-"I was just wearing my new shoes today when I stepped in a HUGE cow ****"

Michael-"Well then, tis a LUCKY thing you were wearing shoes!"

Mary-"Yea, Luck of the Irish"

[Raz]

To clarify – I should have said that Air went below my Trailing Stop Loss.

When I first purchased I set my original stop loss at $2.33. This was set at this as I was looking at the biggest loss I could accept.
I then went back over the last years drops in AIR & found the largest was about 14.5% drop over a one week period.
I set my trailing stop loss at that 14.5% of the highest close price, so when it got to $3.23 on 26 Jan this set my Trailing stop loss at $2.76.

When the price went below $2.76 last Friday I should have cashed in and paid off my loan.
But what I did was look at if I could still afford a small loss, invest a little more & take a little more risk for a higher gain (Hopefully).
So I revised my Stop loss down to half way between the original SL $2.33 & my TSL $2.76 which is now $2.54

I’ll set my TSL at 14.61% so that it will cut in when/if the price gets to $2.98
i.e. 2.98 x (1-0.1461) = $2.54 which is the same as my present stop loss.

So I am not totally forgetting about my Stop Loss, I am just reassessing what risk I am prepared to take.

Good to know you have a plan

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The inverted hammer yesterday and what looks likely to be a gap up on open could be a downtrend reversal. Not the most reliable pattern indicator though.

She's one unpredictable beast at the moment, so who knows!

[skid]

Quite frankly ,I was surprised at the lack of a bounce yesterday--Looks like it may be a day late(at first glance)---Still wouldnt be getting a loan for any stock though-especially in this market,but you may have just gotten lucky--If you have (gotten lucky),maybe consider banking some profits and getting out of that loan.

We have all heard the biggest saying of them all ''never use money you cant afford to lose'' IMO it trumps all the others

[vin]

2.2% from the get go, lovely.

[Beagle]

Sorry, I understand this analogy even less than the hold and pray strategy, but I don't think Roger does the hold and pray thing do you? I think you will tough it out to the divi and quit the stock rather than risk a calamity, assuming the markets keep tanking.

Some of the key investment themes I'm playing this year and next are
1. Interest rates are at 60 year lows and will soon be at 100 year lows so consumers will have plenty of extra spending power.
2. Low / No international growth has created a benign environment for commodity demand and oil will stay lower for longer
3. Because of 2, consumers will have even more money to spend on leisure, tourism, food...whatever.
4. Despite cheaper alternatives, (many with extremely dense seating arrangements and other compromises), Kiwi's are quite a parochial bunch or hardy individuals and many see flying as a trust issue as well, Kiwi's will by and large continue to support their national airline whether they're shareholders or not.
5. Cheaper airfares and a lower $Kiwi will stimulate ever higher level's of inbound and outbound travel and easily fill the circa 12% extra seat capacity into and out of N.Z.

I continue to believe in the superb quality of the management and staff at AIR. Despite ructions overseas the world keeps turning and people will continue to want to travel and a fairly high percentage of people doing so want to travel on a quality airline with a good reputation.
Happy to ride out the turbulence and I have no intention whatsoever of selling.

[Marilyn Munroe]

4...... (many with extremely dense seating arrangements and other compromises), .....i

Cullen Airlines are no strangers to the concept of thrombosis class cabin seating.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[skid]

I saw an article in the paper (cant remember the exact day that showed the increase in total seats as compared to previous years--There is certainly alot more seats available now(more choice)

Im not so sure about Kiwis paying more out of loyalty to their national airline if standards of the others are roughly the same--(guess we (or someone)would have to do a survey to find that out.

We have found out from experience that those super specials are for a VERY limited amount of seats(the wife needs to go to Montreal)
Its the same ole trick,but Im sure they all do it.--In the end I think she is looking at less than $200 cheaper than a few years back (when oil was much higher) Cest la Vie

At 64kilos,Im patienly waiting for them to change over to total weight,instead of just baggage

[Raz]

I saw an article in the paper (cant remember the exact day that showed the increase in total seats as compared to previous years--There is certainly alot more seats available now(more choice)

Im not so sure about Kiwis paying more out of loyalty to their national airline if standards of the others are roughly the same--(guess we (or someone)would have to do a survey to find that out.

We have found out from experience that those super specials are for a VERY limited amount of seats(the wife needs to go to Montreal)
Its the same ole trick,but Im sure they all do it.--In the end I think she is looking at less than $200 cheaper than a few years back (when oil was much higher) Cest la Vie

At 64kilos,Im patienly waiting for them to change over to total weight,instead of just baggage

Yes some of Rodgers assumptions are certainly debatable. Jetstar has had great success based on price with kiwis. (with inferior network & product)

Tourism is certainly capacity constrained so without the infrastructure has limited further growth.

Air Governance is ok although as a consultant don't think their customer focus and marketing is world class...

A certain sector had disposal income however pricing suggest that is not the case for the majority. It is a different matter to get it from them. AIR certainly limited its specials to maintain margins..result they have lost me as a client - my 7 overseas trips this year (given competition) means I have only had to spend 58% of my planned flight budget. All booked, done and dusted.

Still it doesn't have to be a world class company to make an investor a lot of money i.e xero being a classic example..made a lot of money off them even though they have severe limitations.