AIR - Air NZ.

[boysy]

Time to start a thread re what profit and interim divi will be ?

[h2so4]

I don't want to be a 1/2 glass kind of person so until it is announced Ill go with Roger.

[h2so4]

..... But it will be huge.

[Beagle]

Less than $400m underlying before tax and Virgin contribution I'll be gutted, more than $500m I'll be very pleased. I can't see any reason the dividend shouldn't be in line with the ~ 100% profit increase from last year's interim of $216m so 6.5 cps should become ~ 13 cps fully imputed, maybe a little more which would be very nice.

[winner69]

Time to start a thread re what profit and interim divi will be ?

No need to - answer already on this thread

[Raz]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11593816

The premium space..where the real money is made.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Airline index (XAL) continues its stellar run - up over 20% in the last two weeks or so. It is starting to reach some strong technical resistances though (along with the major indexes). Will AIR follow suit, or has it completely fallen out of favour with punters? Next few days will tell us.

[Beagle]

Airline index (XAL) continues its stellar run - up over 20% in the last two weeks or so. It is starting to reach some strong technical resistances though (along with the major indexes). Will AIR follow suit, or has it completely fallen out of favour with punters? Next few days will tell us.

Yes strong further gains overnight. AIR bottomed out in the recent correction to $2.695 so a similar recovery would see it at $3.23. AIR's SP is now basically unchanged from a year ago and yet they're about to announce a profit that is circa double last year's interim profit. I understand there's new competition coming, (this is not unique to N.Z. believe me, almost all carriers are subject to new competition) but AIR have new routes too and how many people understand that Auckland is actually in a direct line between Tokyo and Bounes Aires ? As Iceman has kindly pointed out there's a big opportunity for AIR with Bounes Aires for Asian travellers using N.Z. as a stopover. Housten too another good route if anecdotal reports are correct. QAN set to announce a strong first half today should give something of a heads-up about the tailwinds for the sector.
VAH announced a good 1H on 11 February, underlying A$81.5m, AIR have 26%. Perhaps more importantly statutory profit after tax was $A62.5m v (A$47.8m) loss in pcp so a circa $N.Z31m turnaround for AIR's share in 1H Fy16 which I would have thought is very relevant seeing as AIR's statutory profit after tax for 1H 2015 was $133m.

[Balance]

I understand from a broker that institutional investors have been switching between Air NZ and Qantas as airline plays in this part of the world.

The strategy worked very well for them in 2013/2014 when AIR took off and QAN struggled. In recent times, QAN has been the better play.

I suspect a switch back the other way is now likely if AIR confirms a positive outlook.

[Beagle]

Interesting. I'm pretty sure the current price difference between them is very close to an all time record high, just over $1.20 (plus exchange rate as well, obviously).
Their relative EPS performance this first half will be most interesting, (Fy 2015 QAN 25cps AIR 29 cps).