AIR - Air NZ.

[stoploss]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7727...er-or-miss-out

[Raz]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7727...er-or-miss-out

I think i mentioned this here about a month ago, I had to go and see a client a couple of weeks ago in Queenstown on short notice, air fares were reasonable for one week out however found it hard to find any accommodation, the lower level hotels were 650$ a night , the client booked an AIR B&B for me instead at $2400 for two nights, nothing mid range available..it was a nice place.

Growth for AIR is going to be more overseas destinations, I just can't see tourism number here continue to grow at this rate without a heck of a lot of development, the lag factor to build is way too great... very quickly the kiwis are crowded out..that covered things this season now what...Air B&B would be the best bet to increase bed nights...

I know they want to increase demand in the low season spots, the problem is the target market is reduced greatly when you focus on those truly flexible on dates..naturally everyone else is looking at the same potential market.

[Raz]

Just a bit of humor Raz ,but one would logically assume that a good result-an increase in div would have meant that the early increase in SP would have held. Thats what I thought would happen ,although I didnt think it was going to blast through the $3 mark.
I think more than a few were surprised.

But as to my earlier post-I think this stage coming is where we will find out whether they can continue to catch the same market share with the change in environment in terms of competition.

Thats not to say they are not a well run outfit ,as Roger has shown.

They have had a good run since Oct which reflects the anticipation of todays results. Now its all about the next results.

I know, its always about the next results...I thought it was our best chance at a nudge up as well..the result just did not exceed expectations so the market was not as excited as the cheerleaders here:-)

Given the companies history it is a real step up..go figure! I actually think they have forecast FY 800 million to cover for contingencies like potential loss of market share & world outlook, the latest from the IMF is very negative on the world economy and the incidents of adverse shocks. All going and the stars align more likely to be around 950 million full year...

To make a fair return on this share you have to trade it...

[Beagle]

I know, its always about the next results...I thought it was our best chance at a nudge up as well..the result just did not exceed expectations so the market was not as excited as the cheerleaders here:-)

Given the companies history it is a real step up..go figure! I actually think they have forecast FY 800 million to cover for contingencies like potential loss of market share. All going well more likely to be 950 million plus full year...To make a fair return on this share you have to trade it...

If you keep that up I'll have to buy you a set of pom poms and appoint you my deputy so I can have the occasional day off

The surprisingly weak end to the day could easily have been the result of Chinese interests selling down. Shanghai market was off a steep 6.4% today.

If we get a strong lead overnight from the European and American markets I expect a solid bounce tomorrow as any way you slice and dice it that was a very strong result considering it included all the extra costs to launch two new routes. Actually AIR are themselves calling it "A Stellar Result" Scroll down the bottom of the page folks and click on the second attachment for the interim shareholder review https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/278284

Now...surely my work for the day is done....bring on $3 tomorrow

[blockhead]

I think i mentioned this here about a month ago, I had to go and see a client a couple of weeks ago in Queenstown on short notice, air fares were reasonable for one week out however found it hard to find any accommodation, the lower level hotels were 650$ a night , the client booked an AIR B&B for me instead at $2400 for two nights, nothing mid range available..it was a nice place.

Growth for AIR is going to be more overseas destinations, I just can't see tourism number here continue to grow at this rate without a heck of a lot of development, the lag factor to build is way too great... very quickly the kiwis are crowded out..that covered things this season now what...Air B&B would be the best bet to increase bed nights...

I know they want to increase demand in the low season spots, the problem is the target market is reduced greatly when you focus on those truly flexible on dates..naturally everyone else is looking at the same potential market.

You may well be right in what you say Raz, Blocky has been talking with people in Queenstown and Arrowtown and at the moment it is nearly impossible to get a bed some nights, AIRBNB is being used a lot (this will cause strife later when demand diminishes and full commercial providers are being pinched), the same issue is going on in Tekapo, it is also chocker at the momennt.

[Jantar]

You may well be right in what you say Raz, Blocky has been talking with people in Queenstown and Arrowtown and at the moment it is nearly impossible to get a bed some nights, AIRBNB is being used a lot (this will cause strife later when demand diminishes and full commercial providers are being pinched), the same issue is going on in Tekapo, it is also chocker at the moment.

If you have a rental car then try Cromwell, Clyde, or Alexandra. Only a 1 hr commute to Alex from Queenstown airport. Wanaka is also 1 hr over the Crown Range, but it also fills up pretty quickly.

[GR8DAY]

.......just caught part of the biz talk this morning. Went into AIRs result in some depth and it sounded like the consensus was that yes the $800m forecast is very conservative. Maybe they will crack the $1b mark then..........have they done it before anyone??

[skid]

You may well be right in what you say Raz, Blocky has been talking with people in Queenstown and Arrowtown and at the moment it is nearly impossible to get a bed some nights, AIRBNB is being used a lot (this will cause strife later when demand diminishes and full commercial providers are being pinched), the same issue is going on in Tekapo, it is also chocker at the momennt.

My daughter is based there and it is horrndously hard for the young workers to find accommodation as well--I thought about buying something a few years back -probably should have

[skid]

If you keep that up I'll have to buy you a set of pom poms and appoint you my deputy so I can have the occasional day off

The surprisingly weak end to the day could easily have been the result of Chinese interests selling down. Shanghai market was off a steep 6.4% today.

If we get a strong lead overnight from the European and American markets I expect a solid bounce tomorrow as any way you slice and dice it that was a very strong result considering it included all the extra costs to launch two new routes. Actually AIR are themselves calling it "A Stellar Result" Scroll down the bottom of the page folks and click on the second attachment for the interim shareholder review https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/278284

Now...surely my work for the day is done....bring on $3 tomorrow

Yep--everyone else was in the green incl. US markets as I speak(oil is up) US earnings look sick though---but with all markets up this should put your theory to the test..(you should know better than to talk about the $3 jinx though)

[fungus pudding]

I think i mentioned this here about a month ago, I had to go and see a client a couple of weeks ago in Queenstown on short notice, air fares were reasonable for one week out however found it hard to find any accommodation, the lower level hotels were 650$ a night , the client booked an AIR B&B for me instead at $2400 for two nights, nothing mid range available..it was a nice place.

Just checking .....$2400 for 2 nights? Is that correct or have the gremlins crept in somehow? Makes 650 per night for a hotel a bargain.