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28-02-2016, 03:16 PM
#5011
Originally Posted by winner69
What do they say - share price (eventually) follows earnings
So Roger, just take advantage of "punters" folly as somebody posted yesterday
When you can see the light,while others only see darkness,you have an unfair advantage.
Use it.!
And yes W69 as former poster Steve Fleming always pointed out ;
share prices always follow eps growth.Buy eps growth.
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28-02-2016, 03:49 PM
#5012
well, I did manage to buy some more on Friday.
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28-02-2016, 07:33 PM
#5013
Axe joined the club of cool cats on ST that hold AIR. PS thanks to Roger for posting the link to the conference call. It was a worth while hour.
AIR.jpg
Last edited by axe; 28-02-2016 at 07:36 PM.
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28-02-2016, 08:07 PM
#5014
Notwithstanding all the good news and fine fundamentals, AIR was sell 3-4 weeks ago on the trusty weekly chart and the astute will be watching whether it holds the 'perfect touchdown' $2.74 close on the 200DMA Friday. Incredible how such a fine company can be a plaything for the alert traders focused on capital gains and capital retention. No offence intended to loyal shareholders, just a reminder that this has other forces in play than purely fundamental strengths.
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29-02-2016, 08:24 AM
#5015
All this talk of AIR facing headwinds reminded me of what Henry Ford once said -
“When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it”
When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself
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29-02-2016, 08:59 AM
#5016
Originally Posted by axe
Axe joined the club of cool cats on ST that hold AIR. PS thanks to Roger for posting the link to the conference call. It was a worth while hour.
AIR.jpg
You're welcome. Anyone with a genuine and serious interest in AIR should invest the time. See post #4933 for the link folks.
Last edited by Beagle; 29-02-2016 at 09:04 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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29-02-2016, 09:15 AM
#5017
Fridays action looked like one insto very keen to get out. The big Friday aftermarket transaction may have been the balance - or we will see them selling hard again today.
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29-02-2016, 11:08 AM
#5018
Originally Posted by Roger
Craigs update to $3.45 from $3.40. Consensus underlying profit before tax for 2016 now $845m. Consensus 2016 PE now 4.8 and 5.0 for 2017.
That PE is still low compared to the world-wide industry average. I had hoped that investment companies would have re-rated this a little more aggressively, but perhaps there's a psychological barrier that needs to be overcome!
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29-02-2016, 12:15 PM
#5019
Member
Originally Posted by Roger
Craigs update to $3.45 from $3.40. Consensus underlying profit before tax for 2016 now $845m. Consensus 2016 PE now 4.8 and 5.0 for 2017.
Where did you see that Roger.
They downgraded to $2.89 on feb 25
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29-02-2016, 12:22 PM
#5020
Originally Posted by Zaphod
That PE is still low compared to the world-wide industry average. I had hoped that investment companies would have re-rated this a little more aggressively, but perhaps there's a psychological barrier that needs to be overcome!
Very low and significantly lower than Qan and I note Qan didn't give guidance for FY16. It continues to baffle me why the analysts are so negative on AIR's medium term prospects.
Fact is several months ago after the 2015 annual meeting I made the bold call that analysts were FAR too pessimistic on FY17 EPS estimates, (consensus at that point was 32 cps). Sure enough over recent months we've seen this steadily rise to 54.8 cps a whopping 71% increase, which seems far more realistic.
I will leave you good folks to decide what level of credibility you want to ascribe to consensus analyst forecast for FY18 earnings for AIR of 42.3 cps...but its worth noting they're basing their consensus valuation on a big fall off in AIR's earnings for FY18 and yet Australian analysts think FY18 earnings for QAN will exceed FY16 earnings of 64.3 cps...Hmmm.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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