AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Ouch. Basically writing off the value of VAH, which I agree with and another 20 cents as well for earnings downgrade in FY17. This analyst downgrade won't be the only one coming... that's for sure.

[skid]

Obviously with insiders it is hard to prove or disprove any allegations that they have acted wrongly or with poor judgement. They all have information that we don't and we trust that they don't profit from that information in ways that we can't. We'll never prove it either way.

It's good to see the disclosure that David Morgan sold out at $2.50 hasn't swayed anyone from thinking that insiders are cashing in at the height of the boom.

Anyway, how does one get an invite to this Investor Day? Surely between all of the holders here on ST we must own a good chunk of their stock. Enough for someone to get on the guest list. Or is it just open to bankers and fund managers?

Hard to prove they acted wrongly (like insider knowledge)but you could make a better case for poor judgement.
They need to get these share sales over and done with so things can carry on from there--never a dull moment these days.

[skid]

Ouch. Basically writing off the value of VAH, which I agree with and another 20 cents as well for earnings downgrade in FY17. This analyst downgrade won't be the only one coming... that's for sure.

I personally wouldnt be so quick to write of VAH--Strategic importance to some particular airlines cant be ruled out,even if their balance sheet is not great

[Beagle]

I personally wouldnt be so quick to write of VAH--Strategic importance to some particular airlines cant be ruled out,even if their balance sheet is not great

I'll be happy when proven wrong but we saw a really grim Q3 result and outlook with Monday's VAH announcement and if they can't make money when oil is this low when other airlines are making record profits...

[Baa_Baa]

Ouch. Basically writing off the value of VAH, which I agree with and another 20 cents as well for earnings downgrade in FY17. This analyst downgrade won't be the only one coming... that's for sure.

If they're basically writing off the value of VAH, does that mean/imply they have low confidence of a sale? Might be stuck with VAH for some time perhaps, which if performance doesn't improve will mean shoring up the balance sheet again in due course. What a debacle.

[Baa_Baa]

Hard to prove they acted wrongly (like insider knowledge)but you could make a better case for poor judgement.
They need to get these share sales over and done with so things can carry on from there--never a dull moment these days.

More notices these past two days, one insider sells 350k, while against the trend another insider converts options to buy 94k. So at least it's not all selling.

[Beagle]

If they're basically writing off the value of VAH, does that mean/imply they have low confidence of a sale? Might be stuck with VAH for some time perhaps, which if performance doesn't improve will mean shoring up the balance sheet again in due course. What a debacle.

To be clear I am ostensibly writing it off in my assessment of AIR, not Forbar, (but I have heard rumours some brokers have a very low value for VAH in their valuations), but you are dead right, with the recent loan to VAH and about face to try and sell and then the shocker announcement of a statutory loss of nearly $60m for Q3 and grim outlook statement its turning into a real fiasco.

[skid]

To be clear I am ostensibly writing it off in my assessment of AIR, not Forbar, (but I have heard rumours some brokers have a very low value for VAH in their valuations), but you are dead right, with the recent loan to VAH and about face to try and sell and then the shocker announcement of a statutory loss of nearly $60m for Q3 and grim outlook statement its turning into a real fiasco.

I was only raising the issue of other forms of value--If China air or Singapore wanted access to OZ via VAH it would have strategic value and would possibly be worth them helping to make it profitable if they could--or just the added traffic could go a ways to do that---But Im by no means assuming this will definitely happen,only raising the possibility---Guess by now we should learn to expect anything.

[winner69]

More notices these past two days, one insider sells 350k, while against the trend another insider converts options to buy 94k. So at least it's not all selling.

Probably sell them tomorrow

[Beagle]

Probably sell them tomorrow

Yes it was only an exercise of free options. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they were sold on market today. I think Forsyth Barr are pretty much on the money, fair price target 12 months out is $2.80 assuming reasonable flying conditions between now and then.

Fair enough Skid, as you suggest anything is possible, I know one kind soul that adopts mutts from the pound that nobody wants that would otherwise be put down, (what a great bloke he is) so there's always a chance someone might want VAH for its network, planes and flight slots but operationally it sure is a pup !