AIR - Air NZ.

[James108]

Hopefully you're near a capitulation. I try and follow KW's simple advice re watching volume MACD and M/A.s; moving averages 60 day and 200days and lesser like 30DMA. The s/p chart going down through those M/A is a warning followed y a get out. and the reverse for buying;i keep it simple. There is a lot of advice on here about that and much more savvy stuff from kW, HOOP, BaaBaa etc. Trying to buy at the bottom or just guessing is not managing risk but speculating.

I would say buying based on moving averages, MACDs or whatever else is speculating. You say that trying to buy at the bottom is speculating but isn't that what you are trying to do? Albeit with some delay while you wait for your magic lines to cross.

I believe Share Price and value should be the primary considerations for an investor. Not that I believe the likes of Couta have a sufficient understanding of AIR to make an investment decision, emotion/hype seems to rule.

[Baa_Baa]

Here is a chart and a fairly simple technique that might help some people find the buys and sells of a strongly trending share. It works most of the time, but not all of the time. You can see the horizontal support line and the 4-year rising trend line converging right where the SP tested and closed slightly above today. Some use this as a looking glass into what might happen, and today it did happen almost like text book.

It is weekly chart so a lot of the daily noise is ignored. Basically, we look for the weekly price to ... 1. cross and close above or below both the 10 and 14 day EMA's (exponential moving average) - the green and red wavy lines on this chart. 2. confirm the direction in the first day of the next week by staying above or below the same EMA's. Over the past 4 years, AIR has but for one period in mid 2014 been volatile enough for this very simple trading strategy to work out just fine. At present AIR is a sell, or was a sell around $2.80.

The green arrows on the chart are buys and the red arrows are sells, there are only 10 trades (buys or sells) indicated here in the past 4 years. This might not be the right strategy for you, but it works fairly well most of the time for strongly trending shares. The TA guru's will of course suggest that you have a bunch of indicators (mathematically calculated points that help to confirm the price direction) to help confirm these decisions to buy or sell. But I'm not going into that level of detail now.

See what you think of this very simple trading strategy for strongly trending shares. (yes PT I know its an arithmetic scale). It seems some people might appreciate how some very simple TA can work to help make decisions on being in, or out of volatile shares.

Attachment 8024

Cheers
BAA

ps: not advice, never is or will be, one should always dyodd. Just sharing some thoughts, I hope it helps.

[Xerof]

JoshuaT mentioned capitulation.
Yes, capitulation is what we look for to signal a (n interim maybe) turning point. Look for a chart pattern like this one on the right:
image003.jpg

the left hand candle is the bears in control, followed the next session by a further attempt to push it lower, and/or those who give up in panic or frustration, but which is met by strong buying, closing above the open (good volume is nice to have on this candle too)

Too many people then think the next day is the buy day, but its never confirmed until the end of the day with the Right hand side bullish candle.

Buy with confidence on day 4, as the bulls have their tails up

On 28 April, I posted a 'measured' target of 2.15 from another TA structure, with interim support at 2.35 and 2.25, both being old support/older resistance levels from some time ago.

No evidence of a bottom yet IMO, but as Baa says, we held the first line of chart support today, albeit unconvincingly.

no axe to grind - take it or leave it - I don't hold AIR

the formation on the left is the opposite, for picking tops with equal confidence.

[couta1]

I would say buying based on moving averages, MACDs or whatever else is speculating. You say that trying to buy at the bottom is speculating but isn't that what you are trying to do? Albeit with some delay while you wait for your magic lines to cross.

I believe Share Price and value should be the primary considerations for an investor. Not that I believe the likes of Couta have a sufficient understanding of AIR to make an investment decision, emotion/hype seems to rule.

Sometimes I wonder why I bother with the forum when you get posts like this, emotion and hype don't control my decisions,I stand firm on what I decide and are not swayed by anyone once I've made my decision. As I've said before I've never lost money on Air and won't this time either. So the likes of Couta may actually understand more about Air than you think.

[James108]

Sometimes I wonder why I bother with the forum when you get posts like this, emotion and hype don't control my decisions,I stand firm on what I decide and are not swayed by anyone once I've made my decision. As I've said before I've never lost money on Air and won't this time either. So the likes of Couta may actually understand more about Air than you think.

The way you post gives me the impression you care a great deal about the day to day share price movements. Talk of things falling off cliffs, sheeple etc etc.

I would be interested in what you think AIRs future cash flows will be and where you think the intrinsic value of AIR sits.

[workingdad]

Sometimes I wonder why I bother with the forum when you get posts like this, emotion and hype don't control my decisions,I stand firm on what I decide and are not swayed by anyone once I've made my decision. As I've said before I've never lost money on Air and won't this time either. So the likes of Couta may actually understand more about Air than you think.

Because a lot of us appreciate what you have to add Couta1.

I don't see the need for negative comments like that either. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and no one will be right 100% of the time other than of course my wife who's right even when she isn't if you know what I mean.

Thanks for the time taken on the charts Baa Baa and Xerof. I have played with them on a very basic level but just found they were right as much as they were wrong other than looking backwards that is. I would like to learn more about them as I see benefit in this - if enough people use and interpret charts to indicate the same buy and sell points then the share price will move with them I guess - or is that a bit of a simplistic view?

I would be lying if I said I hadn't taken on board some of the analysis people do on here and used it as part of a consideration with making a decision but at times I find myself going against the grain based on what I perceive to be correct as is the case with AIR it would seem. I don't have the experience to confidently say I am right and neither does my crystal ball but I'm in and will try not to get emotive throughout the ride

For me its pretty simple with AIR, they move people through the air from point a to point b, looking back historically oil is cheap, the dollar is in a reasonable range even if both are not to the extreme they were 2 months ago, they have a fleet that wont have expensive future costs to run in comparison to others and tourism is at an all time high and growing which put simply is their core business.

Am I so wrong in saying fair value is more than $2.36?

[BIRMANBOY]

Making judgemental comments about other investors level of understanding is probably ill-advised and does you no favours. Regardless of whether one "understands" a share or not, the market can and does react counter to how it "should" so a smart investor recognises that frequently s**t happens even when we know every last detail on the annual report. Also making blanket appraisals based on what you read in a forum is sort of like picking icebergs..you only see a portion of the whole thing so have no real base to make decisions on. Lastly I happen to know that Couta has had some very big wins but he's a modest guy and wouldn't have made a big fuss about that.

I would say buying based on moving averages, MACDs or whatever else is speculating. You say that trying to buy at the bottom is speculating but isn't that what you are trying to do? Albeit with some delay while you wait for your magic lines to cross.

I believe Share Price and value should be the primary considerations for an investor. Not that I believe the likes of Couta have a sufficient understanding of AIR to make an investment decision, emotion/hype seems to rule.

[Baa_Baa]

[snip] Thanks for the time taken on the charts Baa Baa and Xerof. I have played with them on a very basic level but just found they were right as much as they were wrong other than looking backwards that is. I would like to learn more about them as I see benefit in this - if enough people use and interpret charts to indicate the same buy and sell points then the share price will move with them I guess - or is that a bit of a simplistic view?
[end snip]

Don't worry about what other people think or do, just follow your strategy. If that involves being informed by a chart, or some other technique for deciding buys and sells, don't worry about whether everyone else sees it and may or may not act on it. Just do it, just trade your strategy. Herd mentality is your friend, the charts just help you to identify and predict that, and make your own decisions.

Good luck.
BAA

[percy]

Hello, hello ,hello,
Was that Chris Luxon in "The Running Man Challenge" wearing a waistcoat?

[OldGuy]

I would say buying based on moving averages, MACDs or whatever else is speculating. You say that trying to buy at the bottom is speculating but isn't that what you are trying to do? Albeit with some delay while you wait for your magic lines to cross.

I believe Share Price and value should be the primary considerations for an investor. Not that I believe the likes of Couta have a sufficient understanding of AIR to make an investment decision, emotion/hype seems to rule.

This was a good post up until the last sentence, at which point it immediately became very sour. Try better next time, please.

Couta, like me, is not afraid to post his losses in order to aid others' learning. Sure, we've made some big wins too, but we both believe that there is more to learn from other peoples' mistakes and are happy for others to learn from ours.

Shame that people like you interpret that as an opportunity to take a swipe.