AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

This was a good post up until the last sentence, at which point it immediately became very sour. Try better next time, please.

Couta, like me, is not afraid to post his losses in order to aid others' learning. Sure, we've made some big wins too, but we both believe that there is more to learn from other peoples' mistakes and are happy for others to learn from ours.

Shame that people like you interpret that as an opportunity to take a swipe.

Well put and agree

A couple of posters should reflect on some of the stuff they posted last night

[winner69]

I think Air NZ will still be flying passengers around the world in 10 years time and making money doing it

Wonder what share price will be in 10 years time?

[777]

i think air nz will still be flying passengers around the world in 10 years time and making money doing it

wonder what share price will be in 10 years time?

60rmb. +/-1

[percy]

60rmb. +/-1

Classic......lol.

[skid]

Hi Skid. Maybe they are putting a date on it with the knowledge they have some discussions going on in the background already or maybe they are just trying to avoid it being included in profit/loss for the full year results?

Calling it right will be a bit of luck as far as I can tell but even though ASB securities was down most of the day it seemed to me 4 million odd shares changed hands in that resistance level zone so I see that as a possible indicator and hopefully that results in a better week next week.

I agree, oil, kiwi dollar, VAH earnings, all negatives not to mention increased competition but on the positive, great first half results, solid operation updates since, NZ tourism growing exponentially. Last operational update showed good growth with us kiwis traveling overseas as well and with all our real estate being worth so much and borrowing against it for things like travel I cant see it suddenly coming to an end.

AIR has maximum hedge for the oil side of things and who knows if the oil prices keep rising where supply is abundant.

I had everything cashed up a month ago and bought some AIR in the lull without a stop loss in place and down she came - do a regret it, well yes in honestly I do but with it being at the price it is now I think it's worth a crack, I will have to eat my words if it doesn't rebound but none of us are right all the time, my wife reminds me of that most days

We are in a very similar mindset WD the only difference is that with the one share we took a punt in I got out,but that still allows getting back at a lower price (If I bought back in at a drop of X amount,id be even, -whether I would do that is another thing) so in a way its speculating without being in the Share--like gambling with lost opportunity.
I think in answer to your earlier question about when is it convincing the TA folks would say (to put it simply,when it reverses from lower highs and lower lows---to higher highs and higher lows.)
Aside from the day it raced up ,its been following a pretty similar pattern with Friday no exception.
The main reason I departed is that A-I deveated from basic strategy,and tried my luck and B-this share is such a firecracker that Id rather gamble with lost opportunity than capital or if I took my own advice -not gamble at all--depends on whether I turn out to be a slow learner

[winner69]

60rmb. +/-1

Worth holding then

[Beagle]

Well put and agree

A couple of posters should reflect on some of the stuff they posted last night

I think Air NZ will still be flying passengers around the world in 10 years time and making money doing it

Wonder what share price will be in 10 years time?

Agree 100%. Some need to ask themselves why they think its there place to comment on or critique the ability of other posters.

Some perspective for holders - There's always sunshine after rain. Obviously while uncertainty hangs over AIR regarding the Australian gorilla on their back its going to be tough to gain altitude. I think the market has basically written off the value of their VAH stake so any reasonable solution could see a meaningful bounce.

You made a really good post a while back Winner wherein you asked when the SP was $3.00 is this as good as it get's and risks to the downside appear greater than the upside. Let me return the favour, is this close to as bad as it gets, risks to the upside now significantly outweighing the risks to the downside ?

I see consensus forecast dividends for the foreseeable future have barely changed so for the many people who bough as a long term investment, what's really changed ? I think we all knew in our hearts FY17 was going to be a little less than FY16 as the full year's effect of new competition set in. Consensus analyst forecast for FY17 is $758m before tax down from $839m this year. Hardly falling off the edge of a cliff is it !

I absolutely agree with AIR's management in terms of their strategic direction of getting out of VAH, (might take them longer than they'd like but who's to say one way or the other whether a deal isn't imminent ?), and perhaps even more importantly growing capacity in a disciplined manner in line with the tourism growth rate. It appears regional demand within N.Z. is in better shape than Australia and the relative tourism growth rates need to be considered in the bigger picture too. Australia 8% and N.Z. 10%. Record migration to N.Z. is another strong macro economic factor as new residents travel and their friends and extended family come to visit. Their way of expanding using revenue sharing methodology and getting other partners to invest because they have skin in the game is well thought out too IMO.

[skid]

60rmb. +/-1

You forgot to apply the statistical standard deviation of .9901x-b9(2-X6)--upon working this out you would have come to the realization that air NZ does not indeed fly passengers around the world,they have to use code share partners

[777]

You forgot to apply the statistical standard deviation of .9901x-b9(2-X6)--upon working this out you would have come to the realization that air NZ does not indeed fly passengers around the world,they have to use code share partners

I thought that was covered by the +/-1 which I had to add to meet the minimum letters required to actually post. My bad.

[skid]

Because a lot of us appreciate what you have to add Couta1.

I don't see the need for negative comments like that either. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and no one will be right 100% of the time other than of course my wife who's right even when she isn't if you know what I mean.

Thanks for the time taken on the charts Baa Baa and Xerof. I have played with them on a very basic level but just found they were right as much as they were wrong other than looking backwards that is. I would like to learn more about them as I see benefit in this - if enough people use and interpret charts to indicate the same buy and sell points then the share price will move with them I guess - or is that a bit of a simplistic view?

I would be lying if I said I hadn't taken on board some of the analysis people do on here and used it as part of a consideration with making a decision but at times I find myself going against the grain based on what I perceive to be correct as is the case with AIR it would seem. I don't have the experience to confidently say I am right and neither does my crystal ball but I'm in and will try not to get emotive throughout the ride

For me its pretty simple with AIR, they move people through the air from point a to point b, looking back historically oil is cheap, the dollar is in a reasonable range even if both are not to the extreme they were 2 months ago, they have a fleet that wont have expensive future costs to run in comparison to others and tourism is at an all time high and growing which put simply is their core business.

Am I so wrong in saying fair value is more than $2.36?

No, your not so wrong,nor is it wrong to say its fair value is less--lets face it ..the jurys out-(and even if the fair value is more or less,the SP could do just the opposite --I think the main point is that we dont know at this stage---There fore we should be taking alot of things with a grain of salt.
My example of possible problems was certainly not a definite prediction in any form--it was just to add to the mix(It was really in response to the 'sheeple'' comments which imply that those that are selling are idiots.(ok,most agree some responses were a bit much,but i think it may have come from the fact that such absolute statements were coming from those who were losing atm,ok..on paper) ..point is ,we just dont know--it even appears to be a close one for the TA ers.

RE Couts--Hes had some wins and the consistant remark is, I believe not correct as (if memory serves)he had sold out of AIR when it was above $3 and bought back in at a lower price--that worked a treat for those who did that the 2-3 times before, when it then bounced--just got caught this time (as did many) --credit has to be given to Hoop who did warn against the damage if it broke the resistance this time around (3rd try?)of 2.70