AIR - Air NZ.

[thestg]

I have now held my AIR shares for 7 months. Done a stop-loss sell off last November but bought back in a week later at a loss.

I also borrowed more on my mortgage to try to catch a falling knife over the last weeks.
I bought equal amounts between $2.78 & $2.47, being an average price of $2.64.

My average cost for all my AIR shares now is $2.55 per share. My portfolio is vastly over weighted at 46.25% in AIR.
The last dividend pay-out covered my interest repayments for 12 months (up till October 2016).

My capital has eroded by about 7.4% at Fridays close price, but will be back to 0% when/if the price returns to $2.55

I now know the pressure of ignoring my stop loss a couple of weeks ago, but am not going to sell now!

My object is to hang in there till 2020 as planned, but will sell down 50% when/if the price returns to over $2.80 (50% is what I bought over the last few weeks when I got greedy).

[percy]

A quote from John Maynard Keynes;
"The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent."

[winner69]

A quote from John Maynard Keynes;
"The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent."

A variant if that is - "The road to the poor house is paved with undervalued stocks that should have gone higher"

[Bobdn]

Roger, thanks for your post just above about consensus dividend forecasts, helps keep things in perspective.

[percy]

A variant if that is - "The road to the poor house is paved with undervalued stocks that should have gone higher"

What a wonderful quote.
Unfortunately I have travelled down that road far too often.!! ..lol.

[winner69]

roger -
You made a really good post a while back Winner wherein you asked when the SP was $3.00 is this as good as it get's and risks to the downside appear greater than the upside. Let me return the favour, is this close to as bad as it gets, risks to the upside now significantly outweighing the risks to the downside ?

Agree

Over last 16 months or so the AIR share price has averaged $2.75. Not far away from current censesus - spooky

It has also cycled between 240 odd and 300 odd - so will probably cycle its way back to 300 plus from here

The financial fundamentals, ie expected divdends, are strong (sone here would say compelling) at 240


So simple TA and simpe FA both say 300 in the the next month or two

Heck, thats a 25% plus gain

I'm in

(Hard to believe price down nearly 30% in few monhs - thats BEAR territory)

[Raz]

Agree

Over last 16 months or so the AIR share price has averaged $2.75. Not far away from current censesus - spooky

It has also cycled between 240 odd and 300 odd - so will probably cycle its way back to 300 plus from here

The financial fundamentals, ie expected divdends, are strong (sone here would say compelling) at 240


So simple TA and simpe FA both say 300 in the the next month or two

Heck, thats a 25% plus gain

I'm in

(Hard to believe price down nearly 30% in few monhs - thats BEAR territory)

Well said, if you are happy with a little anxiety, trade or invest, you can make this share work for you. IMHO the VAH outcome personally will decide if it can get back to $3 in the short term and when. Also have to consider it has be rerated by the market. I think there are a lot of traders in this share and you have to go into it realising that and it will have an effect on the SP movements. I have been trading it for 12 months and have done rather well. Only paid some money back on this last swing. I am just one small trader of many, the shares I have held have varied from 35,000 to 350,000 at any one time. Magnify that across the market and you can see why these price swings can occur base on average daily volumes.

[sl234]

Hi newbie here with what I think is a golden nug.
Alotta experts here are discussing AIR purely on the basis of 200 MA or TA. Obviously this is a huge downturn and below a couple standard deviations, and normally this would be a get out scenario.

But does noone here read current events?

Asian immigration is a CONTINUING trend, and is reflected in AIR's share price growing 82% in the last three years, cheaper oil prices which look to be here for a year at least.
4% increase in visitor numbers every year, and looking at the recent trend in Auckland house prices, they aren't pinching pennies when it comes to expenditure.
If anything AIR's status as a premium airline that its setting is more fitting towards a growing asian middle class as more and more Chinese flock to NZ.

Think about sectors and trends, VAH may serve as an offset now but I cannot see AIR falling on its own sword in the middle of such a prosperous time period.
Personally I doubled down when I saw they had dipped to 2.35.
Baa Baa you don't seem to place much emphasis on this at all and I don't understand why you could leave such a hole in your analysis after you have had so much experience trading.

[Baa_Baa]

Looking at the 10 year monthly price chart, those spooky fibonacci lines show Friday's touchdown and closing prices as bang on the 38.2% fib retrace of the entire 4-year bull trend. Interesting also the $1.75 low of Oct'14 is bang on the 61.8% fib retrace, so plenty of 'air' under here if negative sentiment continues to weight on the SP.

One other thing, notice the 10 month MA crossing down through the 20 month MA = the double death cross. Last times these long moving averages crossed down in the past 10 years was Feb 2008 and Mar 2011. They don't fire off signals very often, so when they do it's best imho to take notice.

Attachment 8025
10 year Monthly chart arithmetic scale. 4-year bull trend being tested now.

Attachment 8026
10 year Monthly chart log scale. 4-year bull trend break-down.

BAA

[Baa_Baa]

[snip]
Baa Baa you don't seem to place much emphasis on this at all and I don't understand why you could leave such a hole in your analysis after you have had so much experience trading.

Hi sl234 welcome to shareTrader.

Fundamentals are thoroughly discussed here, I think that FA is an absolutely essential factor in deciding whether a company is a sound investment proposition. Assuming it is, then I buy or sell all or some of my holding based solely on the share price at the time. I actively manage my capital using the charts.

This you may perceive as a "hole in your [my] analysis" but I just don't talk about fundamentals here with so many much more clever and thorough contributors. As an aside, my trades are infrequent as I prefer the weekly charts and monthly charts over daily which I only use to confirm.

cheers
BAA