AIR - Air NZ.

[Master98]

Morningstar apparently ACCUMULATE with $2.80 value

LOL, Morningstar is still struggling to value Air.
"A latest recommendation report has not been issued by Morningstar for this stock."

[Joshuatree]

Craigs hve dumped AIR from their high conviction list unfort.Confident about long term strategy but not short term performance and expecting 12-18 months of disruption due to competition before the mkt becomes more rational.Valuation more attractive than ever but on balance momentum against AIR in the short term but believe there is a better exit point than where s/p is currently trading!!?. Covering the field somewhat!. Disclose ;a reluctant holder atp.Awaiting VAH divestment news.

[couta1]

I always walk past Chorus vans when out for a walk which is a constant reminder to me of the difference a couple of years can make to the SP of a stock. Different reasons why CNU got hammered than Air but same principle at work of market irrationality and waiting for a significant event to occur before sanity prevails once again. Difference between the two situations is that in this case you are going to be rewarded with handsome dividends the whole time you are waiting.

[Gringo]

Hi all, first post on ST. Enjoying all the varied views here. I just have a quick question and a couple of comments:

Q: Does the NZX issue "Please Explain" notices like the ASX does? Roger's response from Mr Carter was interesting, but I wonder what management would officially have to say?

Taking a position in AIR last few days... If "Buy in gloom, sell in boom" is a good strategy (providing company fundamentals strong) it looks like buying time for me. Seems 5pm Fridays are best when fear max's out?

Sorry, but these kind of Forsyth Barr valuations posted earlier today seem so useless to me. While they may temp. influence the SP a bit, they're just reactive to the news -like the general financial media. Any untrained chimp could put a lower price target on AIR now - duh! If these analysts were so bright, why couldn't they do that + slap on a SELL a month ago? Has any big new negative info really come to light since then? Anyway I'm a little contrarian, and don't mind going against the AIRflow at current prices. Unfortunately no one rings a bell at the bottom, but I'm building my position now and thinking Mr Market is being a bit irrational here - or if it's an atypical cyclical correction, we're getting close to 6 o'clock. Be greedy when others are fearful? Thanks.

[Beagle]

Welcome to the forum Gringo, nice first post. For certain reasons I can't post all of what Tony Cater and I discussed, (the vast majority of it is on the forum already). I doubled my holding after that conversation. I was a client of Forsyth Barr for many many years and I am no longer a client and have no interest whatsoever in being one again, for reasons I can't go into print with..read into this whatever you feel like. (DYOR, not to be considered a professional advice or a recommendation)

[Joshuatree]

Roger has asked me to delete the post previously here based on opinions rather than something more sinister; fair enough ,i have, but it wasn't a good look and hinted of cronyism which it prob isn't; maybe not put such suggestive info out there Roger that no one else is privy to. Cheers Jt

[Gringo]

Thanks "Guru" Roger. I appreciate the work & insight you (and others) put into your posts. Might be Koru Club soon like you at this rate!

[percy]

Stopped by Auckland airport today seeing as I was nearby anyway. Really filthy weather as one frontal / storm system after another blew in...watched an AIR 777-300 take off into the storm and quickly lost sight of it in the dark and foreboding cloud system. The symbolism wasn't lost on me. Looking forward to better weather ahead but I think some patience will be required and if they can't sell VAH soon it could be a long winter.

You should have been jumping with joy at the filthy weather.
Lovely lot of snow now on the Southern Alps.
AIR planes will be filling up with skiers.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Raz]

Welcome to the forum Gringo, nice first post. For certain reasons I can't post all of what Tony Cater and I discussed, (the vast majority of it is on the forum already). I doubled my holding after that conversation. I was a client of Forsyth Barr for many many years and I am no longer a client and have no interest whatsoever in being one again, for reasons I can't go into print with..read into this whatever you feel like. (DYOR, not to be considered a professional advice or a recommendation)

Brokers have a lot to answer for, it was only a few weeks ago competition was in every second headline and VAH divestment intention was announced and none of them reacted..now they reacted with this uncertainly....

[Mista_Trix]

I always walk past Chorus vans when out for a walk which is a constant reminder to me of the difference a couple of years can make to the SP of a stock. Different reasons why CNU got hammered than Air but same principle at work of market irrationality and waiting for a significant event to occur before sanity prevails once again. Difference between the two situations is that in this case you are going to be rewarded with handsome dividends the whole time you are waiting.

You're analogy only tells part of the story, you and I both started on this thread at roughly the same time, and many of us have witnessed your investment journey. I was with you on that CNU ride (and Xero, and Dil and Sum I think from memory).

In CNU you bought in at the top (circa $2.80 to $3.00), and then the downtrend began... and the Div stopped.

I sold out in the change and from memory you stayed in (at least for quite a while, cant remember how long). Many (including myself) waited patiently until buy indicators came back on - I was lucky enough to get back in at $1.51, and rode it back up, selling again at $3.08 (okay, indeed I did miss the top). Anyone who had held during this time would have had their capital locked up for well over a year and a half with no return, and an inability to access it, while those who listened to advice and read some deeper indicators made over 100% gains.

Yes buy regardless of price and hold is a strategy, but hell man, you miss out on some mighty gains. I've seen you take this strategy on multiple stocks now, and through your comments, indirectly encourage others to do the same - "don't worry about it " seems to be your favourite post, regardless of apparent market changes.

For new posters who don't know how inexperienced some people are, and who get mislead that the size of someones holding equating to their skill as an investor, or their knowledge in a sector also equating to their skill as an investor. Take the "don't worry about it" as a warning. It shows an inability to listen to others, or take in to account changes in market trends. Ok, a company may look sound on paper, that doesn't necessarily equate to a strong share price, especially when a trend changes and a stock falls out of favour with the market (couta is right about that part).

I don't really know what my point is, but to recently new investors - and there are many on the forums of late. Watch out for people with fingers in their ears. And listen to the skeptics - at the very least for a balanced view. There's repeated bad decisions (over years even) being made by some investors and they're taking a chunk of other posters down with them due to the size of their holding and how frequently they post.