AIR - Air NZ.

[Raz]

Buying more VAH at .275 Two months since AIR announced desire to exit.
Anticipating some developments over the next month

I agree worth a punt:-)

[Raz]

Weekly looks good
Attachment 8083given the grossly oversold position

The monthly not so much

Attachment 8082Still dominated by the shooting star,

but I'd never buy an airline as a long term investment.

Well said, having fun trading this stock again..good couple of weeks for that:-)

[dobby41]

Higher fuel costs would be to AIR's favour with them having a very efficient fleet.
Other less fuel efficient airlines can come in and take the cream while fuel costs are low but will struggle when they go up.

[Balance]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...256504d04c9691

Looks like a deal on VAH will happen so that will mean around NZ$500 freed up.

My take - Shareholders especially the government will be happy to receive a special payout of 35c to 45c a share?

[allfromacell]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...256504d04c9691

Looks like a deal on VAH will happen so that will mean around NZ$500 freed up. Shareholders especially the government will be happy to receive a special payout of 35c to 45c a share?

The links behind a pay wall , can anyone find a different article?

[Balance]

Deal looms on Air NZ’s Virgin stake

The Australian
12:00AM May 31, 2016


Sir Richard Branson expects a deal within two to three weeks

Billionaire Sir Richard Branson says the sale of Air New Zealand’s $450 million stake in Virgin Australia will be concluded within the short term but the entrepreneur would not be drawn on who would buy it.

The Virgin Group founder told The Australian an outcome was expected within two to three weeks but he would not be drawn on whether he would buy the shares himself.

Sir Richard was in Australia over the weekend for a range of meetings including the launch of a koala conservation program on Makepeace Island on Noosa River, which he jointly owns with Brett Godfrey, a former chief executive of Virgin Australia.

Air New Zealand announced in March that it intended to sell its shares in Virgin Australia, and Singapore Airlines and another airline are in the race to buy it.

“Air New Zealand have been saying for some time they need a return from their investment in Virgin Australia and it’s going the other way,” said one senior airline source yesterday. “Air New Zealand is a government-owned public company (so) they can’t have $450 million locked up. Air New Zealand is also struggling because Qantas has moved into their domestic regional market and they have Qantas and American Airlines coming into New Zealand. Air New Zealand need to be commercial. “It has not made a return (from its investment in Virgin Australia) and is not likely to make a return,” said the source speaking on condition of anonymity.

[winner69]

Winner, the odds of a quick recovery to $3 is extremely slim IMHO.

The special divies will drive it up to $3 .....then?????

[Beagle]

Thanks Balance. I know AIR are aiming for a conclusion of this matter before balance date otherwise there will be lots of very discontented shareholders at the next annual meeting.

Winner. No question this uncertainty has impacted the SP in a meaningful way. Once the uncertainty has been removed I'm expecting a decent recovery. I don't think most of the analysts have ascribed much value for AIR's stake in VAH into their DCF models so about half to two thirds of whatever AIR get for the sale of it is my best guess of the likely recovery. I'd love to suggest more but its best to be realistic.

[winner69]

Rereading the recent The Listener article on Luxon


Coming of age in the late 1980s and *witnessing the wreckage of the first faltering steps of the unshackled New Zealand economy, Luxon divined he would be a moral force in business. Making money was important but so was doing good – hence his bent for profit-sharing and sustainability.


Like the bit about profit sharing

[Beagle]

Yes I do too mate. No question AIR have enough of their own resources to progress their growth plans and also no question the Govt will be keen to see their books looking as good as possible in an election year. Considering their is no argument that this is now the peak of the cycle I see no reason why we can't be looking forward to a very good ordinary final dividend from peak cycle earnings, (especially in light of the first half one being fairly modest), plus a special that repays all of the capital released from the sale of VAH. Maybe this is why at the recent investor day briefing they made the point that the company has the ability to fully impute up to $750m of dividends... Hope the Govt leans on them and tells them it wants all the VAH money back before management start dreaming up some other creative ways to spend it....more green initiatives or Ansett Mk3 anyone, perish the thought...