AIR - Air NZ.

[arc]

Certainly is an interesting "First move" by the Chinese. Appears to be a strategic chess game in progress.
With large/deep enough pockets you can play the long-game and sidestep the competition.
I see NZ is slowly being ...marginalized.

[Balance]

Certainly is an interesting "First move" by the Chinese. Appears to be a strategic chess game in progress.
With large/deep enough pockets you can play the long-game and sidestep the competition.
I see NZ is slowly being ...marginalized.

Disagree with you. I believe Air NZ knew eactly what they were doing - flush out the buyers and they have achieved that.

Virgin and Branson are playing a different game - my guess is a JV between Branson and the Chinese.

[skid]

Singapore Air would have been the best case scenario,but this is by no means the worst-----just ask yourself--Would you rather have 25.9% of a dying company ,or 22.5 % of a healthy ,cashed up player?---Someone is likely to want that 22.5% pretty badly.
There may be some strategic changes,but it aint a fire sale any more folks....IMO

[Beagle]

Singapore Air would have been the best case scenario,but this is by no means the worst-----just ask yourself--Would you rather have 25.9% of a dying company ,or 22.5 % of a healthy ,cashed up player?---Someone is likely to want that 22.5% pretty badly.
There may be some strategic changes,but it aint a fire sale any more folks....IMO

I agree with your general sentiment but I think a cashed up healthy player is a bit of stretch, (yet). My own analysis some time back showed VAH need $A900m in new equity to get back to a sensible 2:1 debt equity ratio.

[arc]

Disagree with you. I believe Air NZ knew eactly what they were doing - flush out the buyers and they have achieved that.

Virgin and Branson are playing a different game - my guess is a JV between Branson and the Chinese.

Bransons ego combined with the Chinese Long-game...
just like I said... NZ will be marginalised, unless AIR makes rapid moves to king-pin the CHINA-NZ tourist market, closing the door for the Branson expansion.

But you have to ask yourself ... have these latest moves disclosed the hand of who will be (or has been selected to be) the majority player in that select market. Or is this just an "investment" of no particular consequence.

[Beagle]

Bransons ego combined with the Chinese Long-game...
just like I said... NZ will be marginalised, unless AIR makes rapid moves to king-pin the NZ tourist market, closing the door for the Branson expansion.

I'm with Balance on this one. Even if VAH can execute a capital raise of circa $A1b they are still trading on a 2:1 debt equity basis, paying huge royalties for the use for the Virgin name and burdened with a very high ratio of leased planes v one's owned. Add in a aging CEO who seems to have fiddled while Rome burned and provincial routes in Australia that have been savaged by the effects of the widespread mining collapse, international routes that are still losing money despite the low oil price and I think AIR and bang on the money to extricate themselves from that flea ridden pup.

On the other hand AIR are trading on a 1:1 debt equity basis which is very conservative for this capital intensive industry and trading very profitability. Exec summary, AIR are in a vastly stronger than VAH even after the latter has been recapitalised. (Contains colourful language to describe the real state of VAH's operation DYOR e.t.c.).

[workingdad]

I for one am certainly looking forward to some news from AIR on the VAH sale.

Although it is not easy accepting such silence from AIR on this it does give some hope that there is perhaps something on the cards already and they are not in a position to say anything with perhaps it being imminent.

Less volatile trading today which is surprising, doesn't seem like the holders or sellers are quick to budge and staring each other down.......

[arc]

I'm with Balance on this one. Even if VAH can execute a capital raise of circa $A1b they are still trading on a 2:1 debt equity basis, paying huge royalties for the use for the Virgin name and burdened with a very high ratio of leased planes v one's owned. Add in a aging CEO who seems to have fiddled while Rome burned and provincial routes in Australia that have been savaged by the effects of the widespread mining collapse, international routes that are still losing money despite the low oil price and I think AIR and bang on the money to extricate themselves from that flea ridden pup.

On the other hand AIR are trading on a 1:1 debt equity basis which is very conservative for this capital intensive industry and trading very profitability. Exec summary, AIR are in a vastly stronger than VAH even after the latter has been recapitalised. (Contains colourful language to describe the real state of VAH's operation DYOR e.t.c.).

I fully understand both of your sentiments on the "present position". I will just ride the contrary view for a while and see what eventuates.
This could get interesting. Personally I am hoping AIR trucks a plane load of PR up there and starts marking territory.

[workingdad]

I for one am certainly looking forward to some news from AIR on the VAH sale.

Although it is not easy accepting such silence from AIR on this it does give some hope that there is perhaps something on the cards already and they are not in a position to say anything with perhaps it being imminent.

Less volatile trading today which is surprising, doesn't seem like the holders or sellers are quick to budge and staring each other down.......

And this statement was about 10mins before my stop loss was kicked into gear....

[cyclist]

And this statement was about 10mins before my stop loss was kicked into gear....

Ditto. Ever feel like you are being played? I do right now.