AIR - Air NZ.

[workingdad]

Looking at fundamentals (and ignoring the cyclical nature of the industry) - yes some analysts see them still as undervalued; On the other hand - they often do (and sometimes they are right and sometimes they are not).

However - looking at the graph ... I'd call that ugly. Sure - any down trend has to stop at some stage, but why do you think this is now?
Attachment 8096

Not even the indicators appear to move towards "oversold". Why do you think the trend should turn now?

Attachment 8097

And yes - high divvies are nice, but if they are not sustainable, than they are frequently just the last hurrah of a board trying to keep the SP up - no matter what the cost. Sure - at current the forward PE of AIR looks really nice (3.9), but if you look at the long term PE (14.5 - not that flash) and consider that they will have as many years with worse PE than average than better - are you sure that next years divvies will still justify the current share price?

Average the PE out over the next say 3-4 years and its still good and looking further than that into the future is a guessing game. For me it seems undervalued and perhaps continuing to head down again today if it has the somewhat recurrent afternoon drop, I came in halfway on the bounce to 2.31 and then had tight stop loss which was activated mid 2.25s so got a bit of some of the losses back over the last 6 weeks or so from hanging on too long and think there is some short term gains to be made but you are right, its under a lot of pressure.

I don't think with any degree of certainty the trend should turn now but I do think AIR is worth more than its current trading range, there are headwinds but there is also the potential for good news with a sale of VAH, growing tourism offsetting some of the competition and good fleet age looking ahead keeping operating costs in check.

I have been hesitant to jump back in for good reason but looking at it closely in an attempt to catch an announcement on VAH and potential rebound.

[Nasi Goreng]

On one side of the scales you have growing market, good reputation, strong and profitable domestic business, profitable international business, good fleet.

On the other side, you have an increase in competition, declining profits, history of being cyclical, the dog that is called VAH.

[workingdad]

[QUOTE=

Yes yes yes, I agree its undervalued but this NTA, is it before the write down they will need to do for VAH, and before the $50M they will pay to regulators. They have considerable debt too which no one seems to talk about, I'm going from memory here but isn't it around $5B? If it was me, I would be paying that down with any cash that I got from VAH sale.[/QUOTE]

I think if they did that one could predict the share price taking a hammering, they haven't hidden the indication of a special divvy if sold.....

[Snow Leopard]

NTA for AIR at 30-Jun-15 (FY15) was about $1.66

NTA for AIR at 31-Dec-15 (HY16) was about $1.74

NTA for AIR at 30-Jun-16 (FY16) is expected to be about $1.93

NTA = All Assets - Intangible Assets* - All Liabilities.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sharp]

Although many have you have been disappointed with the sale of AIR by management, I think people forget that management isn't necessarily selling because they see headwinds. Management often have limited window of opportunity to sell and I think you will need to remember that these people have mortgages and Mangawhai baches to build.

Resulting from this is the frailing confidence in Luxon and AIR to sell or somehow deal with VAH despite his confidence in dealing with VAH prior to 30 June. Ignoring all the speculation and theories focus I for one will rely on Luxon's words and his expectations:

"Nothing has changed for us," Mr Luxon told Fairfax Media on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association annual meeting in Dublin.
"We are right in the middle of the process and obviously have got to follow it through to its logical conclusion. I appreciate there is lots of speculation but there is a big process that is going to play out and there are going to be multiple phases to it and we are just working our way through that really."

[workingdad]

Although many have you have been disappointed with the sale of AIR by management, I think people forget that management isn't necessarily selling because they see headwinds. Management often have limited window of opportunity to sell and I think you will need to remember that these people have mortgages and Mangawhai baches to build.

Resulting from this is the frailing confidence in Luxon and AIR to sell or somehow deal with VAH despite his confidence in dealing with VAH prior to 30 June. Ignoring all the speculation and theories focus I for one will rely on Luxon's words and his expectations:

"Nothing has changed for us," Mr Luxon told Fairfax Media on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association annual meeting in Dublin.
"We are right in the middle of the process and obviously have got to follow it through to its logical conclusion. I appreciate there is lots of speculation but there is a big process that is going to play out and there are going to be multiple phases to it and we are just working our way through that really."

When this came out I was interested in the multiple phases aspect. I hope its a positive one and SP seems to be holding today.

[mikeybycrikey]

Although many have you have been disappointed with the sale of AIR by management, I think people forget that management isn't necessarily selling because they see headwinds. Management often have limited window of opportunity to sell and I think you will need to remember that these people have mortgages and Mangawhai baches to build.

Yes, I would have to agree with this. According to teir policy, they can't sell between the end of the reporting period and the interim/final report being released. So that means January, February, July and August are out.

I expect they won't sell too close to the start or end of that close-out period, which probably also cuts out December, March, June and September.

Is it really a surprise that insider sales at AIR only seem to happen in April and October? People have to build baches some time, you know!

[sharp]

When this came out I was interested in the multiple phases aspect. I hope its a positive one and SP seems to be holding today.

I haven't encountered an M&A deal which has ever been straight forward and more involving then initially anticipated .

I would not be surprised if this is not a straight sale of VAH involving a number of ancillary arrangements.

[Mista_Trix]

Average the PE out over the next say 3-4 years and its still good and looking further than that into the future is a guessing game. For me it seems undervalued and perhaps continuing to head down again today if it has the somewhat recurrent afternoon drop, I came in halfway on the bounce to 2.31 and then had tight stop loss which was activated mid 2.25s so got a bit of some of the losses back over the last 6 weeks or so from hanging on too long and think there is some short term gains to be made but you are right, its under a lot of pressure.

I don't think with any degree of certainty the trend should turn now but I do think AIR is worth more than its current trading range, there are headwinds but there is also the potential for good news with a sale of VAH,

I have been hesitant to jump back in for good reason but looking at it closely in an attempt to catch an announcement on VAH and potential rebound.

Can I make a small observation about the way you (and others) are talking about, and investing in AIR.
You look as though you are treating it like a growth or tech stock, and looking past the old maiden that she is.

Its a cyclical stock, in a low margin industry.
Its a great div play, if it can keep paying. But in terms of the way its talked about versus what it is, most people seem to be misinterpreting the way it markets itself for the realities kind of company it is.

Its not some snappy new talking new walking kinda thang that will revolutionalise its industry. Its a same old, same old, do what the others are doing (admittedly with great marketing) gunna make a slow buck.

Dont get me wrong, the company is great, but it is what it is.

[sharp]

Can I make a small observation about the way you (and others) are talking about, and investing in AIR.
You look as though you are treating it like a growth or tech stock, and looking past the old maiden that she is.

Its a cyclical stock, in a low margin industry.
Its a great div play, if it can keep paying. But in terms of the way its talked about versus what it is, most people seem to be misinterpreting the way it markets itself for the realities kind of company it is.

Its not some snappy new talking new walking kinda thang that will revolutionalise its industry. Its a same old, same old, do what the others are doing (admittedly with great marketing) gunna make a slow buck.

Dont get me wrong, the company is great, but it is what it is.

Don't get me wrong, but have you considered new factors at play such as the ever increasing Chinese middle class with an appetite for travel?

Is it still the same old same old market and industry?