AIR - Air NZ.

[Gizzajob I can do that]

I wonder if a resolution of VAH situation will be the boast AIR needs. The uncertainty of it is surely a big factor for anyone looking to buy in with the potential to positively or negatively impact on end of year results.
Looking at the chart the trading range seems to be stabilizing but the ability to be irratic on any given day is always on the cards. I followed it closely today and there weren't a lot of sell orders lining up, just drip fed at buy price and less crumbling of sellers when it dipped early afternoon.

Bang on, every time the SP looked to take off it was compromised by a quick dump of approx 5k of stock, mind you that is better than the 20k lots that were dumped earlier in the downfall

[Baa_Baa]

I can think of quite a few shares with a hammered SP that hardly moved in a general downturn Baa, it seems the market understands at those times that those shares don't require the same trimming as the lofty, fully or overvalued ones, sure it may drop but the drop would be minor in comparison IMO.

I would expect nothing less than an optimistic response, you're inspirational, I have learnt a great deal over the years from you sharing your investment and trading strategy.

Only four and a bit short years ago, AIR was .85 in Jan 2012 which was a long time after the GFC rout in '08/09 which took it to .75. I really think it does help to understand what 'cyclical' actually means. Apart from the hurt, years and years go by before the SP recovers, in AIR's case the cycle top to top is close to 10 years and we're all chatting about it when it's already 40+% off it's 10 year high.

Doing some swat on 'stop loss orders' might help as well, just in case.

[workingdad]

Does anyone think the oil prices are being overthought or rather too much weight assigned?

Historically oil prices have been considerably higher than $50 a barrel yet airlines have turned profits, 3 years ago if we thought oil would drop from over $100 a barrel to $50 wouldn't that have been considered a great thing.

So it went a lot lower (and beyond anyone's real expectations) and now slowly came back hitting the magic $50 mark. Shale producers are starting to fire up idle rigs so supply will increase and perhaps limit the on going price recovery.

Latest from the US - seems like perhaps supply is starting to come on line again. http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/09/inve...ars/index.html

Will the oil prices continue to rise as supply starts to increase again? With regard to AIR, I cant see $60 a barrel with a modern fleet be a barrier to future profits or am I missing something? Some have said it will help as competition cuts back due to increased oil prices.

There is still the increased competition to deal with but increased tourism offsets that somewhat and the domestic market is still pretty stitched up.

Monthly stats may be out today, hopefully maintaining good RPKs.

[couta1]

The Mutt has been sold, well 20% of it.

[workingdad]

Yay. .33 per share. Interesting that it's less than what HNA paid..... Maybe they should have bought from AIR

[couta1]

Yay. .33 per share. Interesting that it's less than what HNA paid..... Maybe they should have bought from AIR

Didn't HNA pay 30c ?

[winner69]

The Mutt has been sold, well 20% of it.

.....and I thought you had sold some AIR shares

[BlackPeter]

Does anyone think the oil prices are being overthought or rather too much weight assigned?

Historically oil prices have been considerably higher than $50 a barrel yet airlines have turned profits, 3 years ago if we thought oil would drop from over $100 a barrel to $50 wouldn't that have been considered a great thing.

So it went a lot lower (and beyond anyone's real expectations) and now slowly came back hitting the magic $50 mark. Shale producers are starting to fire up idle rigs so supply will increase and perhaps limit the on going price recovery.

Latest from the US - seems like perhaps supply is starting to come on line again. http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/09/inve...ars/index.html

Will the oil prices continue to rise as supply starts to increase again? With regard to AIR, I cant see $60 a barrel with a modern fleet be a barrier to future profits or am I missing something? Some have said it will help as competition cuts back due to increased oil prices.

There is still the increased competition to deal with but increased tourism offsets that somewhat and the domestic market is still pretty stitched up.

Monthly stats may be out today, hopefully maintaining good RPKs.

Just relax ... my from time to time infallible technical analysis clearly shows that AIR is in an unbroken continuous uptrend since 2005:

AIRLTtrend.JPG

So what can possibly go wrong?

As well - if you are looking for reasons for AIR (or any other company) to turn the trend and go up again ... no doubt, you will find some. There are always good reasons for a company to be successful (otherwise nobody would run it).

If you are however looking for warning signs - hey, if you want to see them, the dark clouds at the horizon are not difficult to see.

Fact is - AIR so far behaved quite cyclical, and this is true for most (all?) airlines. It had an amazing peak (personally I think the market went ways above what seems to be a sensible price, looking at the long term earnings) and it is since then coming down. Just a natural part of the cycle ...

The current SP is now well past the death-cross ... and while it is possible to prove nearly anything using TA (if you take the right indicators - just look at the graph above) do I not believe that there are any serious technical analysts around showing AIR still in an uptrend (but I might be wrong - MA 2000 anybody ?).

In reality nobody can predict how the SP is going (and certainly not on a short term basis), but long term experience shows that cyclical companies past their peak are more likely to continue their decline than reverse the trend ... of course, only until they reach the (cyclical) bottom.

Just looking at my amazing graph again ... $1.25 (in another couple of years) looks like a great entry to go back into AIR - but maybe I am just dreaming?

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any shares at any price - just sharing some personal observations.
Disclosure: don't hold;

[Beagle]

Satisfactory result in my opinion. NTA is circa 30 cps and to be frank there was no reason anyone would want to pay much of a premium for a stake in VAH when its losing money in a low oil price environment and its up to its ears in debt with a 6:1 debt to equity ratio.

[Master98]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...09-gpfw5q.html

China's Nanshan Group to buy Virgin Australia stake from Air New Zealand