AIR - Air NZ.

[workingdad]

Not an uptrend but I have wondered how much of an impact Brexit had on the way the chart looks. Some stocks just have a prolonged flattening out period and I don't think AIR will be a spike back up - perhaps more of a gradual rise but the fundamentals are still decent and the TA is certainly less drastic than it has been.

Definitely not betting the farm on it, been bitten a few times by AIR in recent months but starting to feel more comfortable about it and even a glimmer of optimism

I have actually been using AIR as a good tool for learning and would have enjoyed this more if overall I wasn't in the red with it, not too far off getting back to even though

[stoploss]

not so sure ... does this really look like an emerging uptrend to you?

Attachment 8159

I guess - yes, we (just) managed to get over the MA30 (red line), but volume appears to peter out already and the relative strength (lower blue line) indicates (if anything) more an "overbought" than an "oversold" situation.

Sure - anything can happen (particularly with the markets feeling bullish), but personally I would not bet the farm on AIR moving from here into the stratosphere.

Discl: No (material) interest in AIR - and as usual - DYOR;

It's just getting started ......

[BlackPeter]

Good question (Impact of Brexit on AIR). I guess in a year or so we will know more ... personally I would however assume that Brits react to their significantly dropped wealth (due to the fall of the GBP) by reducing first their discretionary expenses. Holidays (and travel) are typically a large part of that - i.e. they might be likely to travel less and to travel cheaper. This will no doubt have an impact on remote destinations like NZ, which enjoys so far a rather high percentage of UK visitors.

Don't know, what percentage of the AIR customers are British - but I think that at least the Heathrow route wouldn't be able to survive without their custom. Sure - Chinese people and US Americans might fly instead a bit more often, but increased competition on these routes are IMHO unlikely to help AIR to sustain good margins.

[workingdad]

and in return NZers traveling to the EU via UK is looking more attractive and a lot cheaper.

I'm not saying its without consequence but don't think it is going to impact as much, worse case scenario AIR reduces the number of flights in line with demand but keeps them full and focus resource on markets with more going on.

With a fleet age coming down and economical fleet at that when oil prices climb AIR is best positioned to squeeze the competition.

In a year anything can happen but short term outlook doesn't warrant such a low share price but that's just my opinion.

[Beagle]

and in return NZers traveling to the EU via UK is looking more attractive and a lot cheaper.

I'm not saying its without consequence but don't think it is going to impact as much, worse case scenario AIR reduces the number of flights in line with demand but keeps them full and focus resource on markets with more going on.

With a fleet age coming down and economical fleet at that when oil prices climb AIR is best positioned to squeeze the competition.

In a year anything can happen but short term outlook doesn't warrant such a low share price but that's just my opinion.

Good post. Agree 100%. Exchange rate cuts both ways, now very attractive for U.K. trips for Kiwi's.

[emveha]

Air New Zealand has taken out World's Best Premium Economy Class and World's Best Premium Economy Class Airline Seat at the prestigious Skytrax World Airline Awards held at the Farnborough Air Show overnight.

[Baa_Baa]

If one was looking for some correlation of AIR to oil price (or not), what Oil index price would you use? TIA

[workingdad]

If one was looking for some correlation of AIR to oil price (or not), what Oil index price would you use? TIA

Would WTI be the one?

Be interesting to see the result and although I have looked on occasion but never linked them.....

[Xerof]

Why use WTI when you can use the actual product?

iata.org has plenty of high level info on global/regional jet fuel prices

[workingdad]

Had to have a look Baa Baa.

5 year chart looks to be a correlation but the last year AIR has been doing its own thing with the drop in april/may.

Thought worth expanding to the XAL as well which seems to correlate more.

5 year

wti air.jpg

1 year
wti air2.jpg


xal wti.jpg