AIR - Air NZ.

[workingdad]

I reckon anyone that sells now (particularly those who bought in over the last few weeks as it was coming up from the post Brexit fall) stands to lose more than those buying in or holding.

The resistance shown at the 2.02-3 level even in the big sell off with Brexit shows AIR wont very likely go below that without something of significance happening. Factor in the divvy with EOY and potential special with the VAH sale and its a value buy.

The possibility from a charting perspective (and correct me if I am wrong) but if there is a new higher low set if the SP turns and heads back up it is a good sign. Some may think this is unlikely and who knows, maybe they are right but if it goes down more over the next couple of days I will be topping up. This drop is a test for AIR and it will either pass or fail the test with winners and losers as always.

[couta1]

As the saying goes:

There are old pilots and there are bold pilots
but there are no old, bold pilots.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Just as well I'm only 54 yrs young then, plenty more years left to exhibit extreme Boldness.

[boysy]

Workingdad if the special divi is smaller than the market expect or withheld completely this thing will likely fall like a rock. As a dividend play I think buyers forget this is not a boring utility play but an airline facing growing competition on all routes with huge CAPEX expenditure required to stand still in terms of the average aircraft age. Great trading stock but I don't think the buy hold pattern has made anyone money in the past few months expect for the recent minor rally.

[couta1]

Workingdad if the special divi is smaller than the market expect or withheld completely this thing will likely fall like a rock. As a dividend play I think buyers forget this is not a boring utility play but an airline facing growing competition on all routes with huge CAPEX expenditure required to stand still in terms of the average aircraft age. Great trading stock but I don't think the buy hold pattern has made anyone money in the past few months expect for the recent minor rally.

Correction the Capex will reduce over the next few years and the current price does not allow for any special divvy or any other use of the proceeds of the VAH sale nor the upcoming bumper result.

[boysy]

Who says the current price hasn't factored in a big juicy special dividend and annual result. The more important outlook will be forward earnings guidance.

[Beagle]

Special divvy is a given as is a healthy fully imputed final in my opinion. In my view the market is looking through that to determine the operating environment for FY17 and beyond which explains the SP correction. (Witness Cathay Pacific's comment yesterday that yields are under intense pressure...that's the environment we are now in).

Shares are value at this level but I remain of the view that having a sensible sized allocation to AIR as part of a well balanced portfolio is the way to play this with possibly a small trading strategy augmenting that holding stratagy.

Each to their own though and if some people want to go a long way out on a limb with the size of their holding they do so of their own volition and good luck to them.

Some might say fortune favours the brave but I would say where angels fear to tread... I won't go either.

[couta1]

Who says the current price hasn't factored in a big juicy special dividend and annual result. The more important outlook will be forward earnings guidance.

Pass the Tui boysy, if the market had already priced that in, I reckon the price would be around $2.40 right now, even on reduced earnings for the following year, it's still cheap currently due to its high divvy producing ability over the next few years and although it's not a boring utility, the company has been around 76 yrs and has the Govt as a majority shareholder.

[boysy]

That's what people have been saying the whole way down from 330 couta1. The fact remains profitability is highly unlikely to get better for air in the short/medium term (as a result of increased completion across the board)so a record result means little if toward looking guidance is slashed.

[couta1]

The market has known for a while now that's next year's earnings will be less, Air has already spelt this out. I think saying the price will fall like a rock re the special divvy is just down ramping. PS-Median price target equals $2.42 and a hold recommendation.

[see weed]

Did anyone see airplane incidents last Monday night on tv? Can't remember what channel it was on, but think if flying I would always go Air NZ, whatever the price. So what if it's $500 dearer. Had to laugh, this asian airline landed safely, came to a stop, then one of the engines exploded and the whole wing full of fuel blew up, all the passengers had to jump down the shoots and run away. No one hurt thank god. What was most common in all the incidents were the planes were over 15 years old. Then I said to my partner, Geee, hope they don't blow up on landing or takeoff, cause a lot of Auckland live under the new flight path.