AIR - Air NZ.

[golden city]

i still believed air will be on target .., share price will jump after half year profit announcement

[modandm]

It's still above the point I sold out at

you read my analysis and still sell... Where am I wrong?

Besides your fear of "earthquakes SARS" and other unpredictables? - If you are overly worried about black swans then it becomes impossible to invest... Look for margin of saftey - be rational and embrace uncertainty. Risk is something you take to get paid. No risk = risk free rate of return.

No offence of course - and I do appreciate the contribution you and Jaa make (otherwise its just me here..)

[modandm]

i still believed air will be on target .., share price will jump after half year profit announcement

hi golden city - can I ask just random - is your real name Ben?

[Blendy]

(otherwise its just me here..)

Just so you feel loved, I always read your posts with great interest and am generally of the same thinking as you about this one I don't have anything useful to contribute to this discussion, but really appreciate your detailed input!

[CJ]

Modandm - take no offence. Your research is sound - it was mainly my desire to get out the airline industry- as a whole it is an industry frought with issues and having been bitten twice in the past, in my latest portfolio rejig (getting a bit more active now), I decided it was finally time.

[golden city]

news comming.., anything interesting?

[biker]

Okay - a few people patting themselves on the back because they 'foresaw' recent weakness - and come-on it is down like 5% - big deal....



That's too cynical for me. You can't deny the improvement in financial performance over the past 6 months - although all will be revealed in a months time. I won't rehash my prior posts because nothing has changed.

As to the recent shareprice decline I think both points mentioned are valid. The decline did coincide with the 787 problems - imho a temporary problem which shouldn't impact the -9.
The 787 will have no effect on AIR's financial performance in FY14, and only a marginal effect in FY15.

so shouldn't we be focusing on what matters... and ignoring the noise...

More important is NZ progress on cost cutting and in this regard news flow has been positive:

- Call centre rationalisation - i think I read $2m saved - straight to the bottom line
- Ground services contract Qantas out Menzies in - must be a good saving here would be a big contract

Other newsflow

- Emirates and Qantas denied co-operation on the trans-tasman
- CEO announces additional A320 to be added to domestic fleet this year - accelerating switch from 737

With concensus at 1.50 I think people are taking a wait and see approach with regard to the half year results. As you know I am a raging bull, and bought another 35k shares at 1.25 last week.

I expect a strong result and a significant increase in the half year dividend (possibly double last years) to perk investor interest.

Also we can look forward to an analyst day in March where the new CEO will be outlining his strategy.

With you on this modandm. I'm buying more anticipating a very good result, and little impact on timing of the 787-9's

[biker]

Share price on the up today. The whiff of a good result on Thursday? Or a reaction to the VAH result?

[golden city]

sudden jump.., more tommorow..

[biker]

Still on the up. The market is anticipating a great result tomorrow. I hope it's not disappointed.
(IMO the market is still underestimating the result)