AIR - Air NZ.

[GR8DAY]

......looking like a dangerous time to be selling IMHO. In fact I think I'll buy some more.........divvy and all that is. Down the slippery slope and hopefully all the way back up again........or at least MOST of the way back up. I'd be happy with that.

[Beagle]

Do you think the wild ride is over?

I think we've all learned over the last six months or so how tough the aviation game can be. In many respects what KW once said to me is right. The aviation industry worldwide is full of egotistical leaders who all think they have the right recipe for expansion and dominance. Its seems they can't help themselves...expand, expand, expand ! I think AIR's management have learned a valuable lesson from their time with VAH. When I asked Mr Luxon after the 2014 annual meeting what the rationale was for the investment in VAH the answer I got surprised me. We can't just stay a small niche airline in N.Z. or that's the words I recall to the best of my recollection. But that in fact is exactly what they are and they shouldn't aspire to be anything else in my view. If they do things well and stick to their knitting and don't try to grow too fast then they should do okay. I think the shares are good value fundamentally at the current level relative to most other NZX stocks and relative to their peers internationally but the aviation industry by its very nature is a volatile one.

I hold about 8% of my portfolio in AIR, not looking to increase that. Hope that somewhat evasive answer is helpful

[janner]

Chatter... IMHO.

Disc. None.

[Master98]

VAH successfully completed capital rising, so $300m AIR loan to VAH will be surely repaid, VAH will run a top-up program at A$0.26 to HNA for up to 19.2%, so will AIR feed 2.6% VHA holding to NANSHAN to keep their 19.9% holding? all looks are tailwinds

[Beagle]

VAH successfully completed capital rising, so $300m AIR loan to VAH will be surely repaid, VAH will run a top-up program at A$0.26 to HNA for up to 19.2%, so will AIR feed 2.6% VHA holding to NANSHAN to keep their 19.9% holding? all looks are tailwinds

You might want to check your numbers mate. Going off memory the loan to VAH is more like 140 something million $A but agree that this loan will be repaid, in fact it was a condition of the capital raise so repayment will be effected imminently if it hasn't already. The new era of hightened competition is not a tailwind.

[Beagle]

Gotta be happy with that eh Couta1 ? Go skiing and make more money than if you'd been working...life is good some days isn't it !

[couta1]

Gotta be happy with that eh Couta1 ? Go skiing and make more money than if you'd been working...life is good some days isn't it !

Counting my blessings that's for sure mate and yes see weed a happy man. Not expecting perfect flying conditions going forward but my FA Gutometer values this share around the $2.50-$2.60 level, that's with the competition thing priced in. The weighing machine is working again and the patient will be/have been rewarded for hanging in there.

[Raz]

That'll be the day when it reaches $3 again, TBH I'll be well out of AIR at that stage, waiting for my exit... May take ages yet. Licking my wounds at the moment

I agree, you are not alone wanting to offload from what I hear, so expect it to be bumpy, the SP has to survive ex dividend with an uncertain competition cloud which will again be signalled at year end. Low air fuel allows others to keep up the competition while if fuel stayed higher for longer more likely to drop competing routes quicker.

[Balance]

I agree, you are not alone wanting to offload from what I hear, so expect it to be bumpy, the SP has to survive ex dividend with an uncertain competition cloud which will again be signalled at year end. Low air fuel allows others to keep up the competition while if fuel stayed higher for longer more likely to drop competing routes quicker.

The market is a funny place and short term, it is all about human psychology for the vast majority of investors, traders and watchers than anything to do with fundamentals.

As a sp goes down, those who buys shares to invest long term start having doubts, get fearful and actually sell rather than buy more.

As a sp goes up, those who are looking to sell start getting greedy and actually start buying more.

That's why sp overshoots on the way down and on the way up.

Where is AIR? Tails winds vs head winds now - in the absence of anything adverse happening, my pick is that it will go back to $2.60 - half way between recent lows and highs. Sentiment could push it back up beyond $2.60 but fundamental value (consensus) is around $2.65.

[Beagle]

Big falls in U.S. airlines stocks overnight on concerns regarding passenger yield, (Delta's yield down 7% YOY in July). Keep you seat belt fastened today folks.