AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Big falls in U.S. airlines stocks overnight on concerns regarding passenger yield, (Delta's yield down 7% YOY in July). Keep you seat belt fastened today folks.

Pretty weak correlation between AIR and ^XAL on a daily / weekly basis so no worries

I said last Wednesday was going to be a watershed day - actually was Friday

Up 17 cents since last Wed - 8% not too bad for a few days work

[sb9]

Pretty weak correlation between AIR and ^XAL on a daily / weekly basis so no worries

Couldn't agree more, AIR never directly correlated to XAL movement be it up or down...and what's holding the price today is bargain hunters trying to take positions for upcoming FY results in few weeks time.

[BlackPeter]

AIR still happens to be on my watchlist (it is a good company after all, and I used to make money with them) - and it just took its turn for a wee review.

As well - trying to understand some of the hype in this thread ...

Fundamentals:
forward PE: 4.3 - Great ... however, even optimistic analysts predict this year to be the best ... all downhill from here.
average P/E (last 6 years): 15.3; not that flash for a cyclical stock in a downtrend ...
SP to NTA: 1.4 (ok-ish, but I remember times when it was smaller than 1 ... this might be a better time to buy)
Consensus of 6 Analysts (4traders): $2.22 to $2.60 with a mean value of $2.42 and a "Hold" recommendation;

Industry:
Cyclical and many airlines are currently loosing margins due to increasing overcapacity (some are making losses). Rising tensions around the world might put a damper on travel ... though cheap oil is obviously an enabler - and NZ tourism might have another good summer (though not quite sure, how the BREXIT will impact on that).

Trend:
AIRNZ.JPG
Well - hands up, if you think this is an uptrend ...

So - not sure, traders can push it anywhere, but from a fundamental analysis it looks fair valued at best, and the trend speaks for itself.

Wouldn't be surprised if the SP holds (or lightly rises) until the dividend is declared ... and steeply drops after it goes ex dividend.

Anyway - I will keep them on the long-term watchlist ... I am sure, there will be times I see them again as BUY, but not now. Much more attractive below $1.50 or thereabouts ...

Discl: not holding;

obviously: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy!

[Joshuatree]

I for one always appreciate you sharing your nous BP.Sure looks like AIR is trying to form a new trend but too early to tell imo.Im not far off being in the black and look forward to bailing out of AIR. Tempting to jump after the div without a parachute (i.e. seeing if i can direct my flailing limbs towards that stretchy soft landing net) but many others may be thinking the same.Timing is everything.

World first: Skydiver plummets 25,000 ft -- with no parachute - CNN.com

[Beagle]

10 year average PE is about 11. Forecast NTA at 30 June 2016 is $2.01 so price to NTA is only 1.15 using consensus NTA analyst figure. Consensus PE next year is 4.8 taking into account average analysts expected impact on FY17 earnings so trading at well under half the 10 year average PE despite expected effects of extra competition in FY17. Stock looks good value relative to its peers most of whom trade on FY17 PE of circa 6 and most at significantly higher premiums to NTA despite the apparently lacklustre outlook for the sector.

I agree the shares will drop by the amount of the dividend as soon as it goes ex but astute followers of the dividend stripping theory will know the chances of relative outperformance in the few weeks before and after going ex are high on the balance of probabilities.

I'd like to see it crack the 100 day MA line, thanks for the chart and good luck getting them at circa $1.50...there might be one or two people just ahead of you in the queue hunting for value at that price

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/

[couta1]

BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.

[BlackPeter]

BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.

Hmm, yes ... I do prefer to buy undervalued shares, but that's just my personal preference . Re the cloudiness of my crystal ball - I guess this is much easier to assess after the event, but you well might be right. It is not always correct, but than - more often than not.

[Snow Leopard]

Report landed on my desktop this morning which, in world ranking, places AIR

41st by revenue and
59th by RPK.

QAN (15 & 22)
VAH (39 & 53)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

Report landed on my desktop this morning which, in world ranking, places AIR

41st by revenue and
59th by RPK.

QAN (15 & 22)
VAH (39 & 53)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Just shows you what a Dog VAH really is, ahead of Air on revenue yet needing constant life support to keep it flying, and Qantas, good airline but no divvy even with all that revenue.

[Snow Leopard]

Just shows you what a Dog VAH really is, ahead of Air on revenue yet needing constant life support to keep it flying, and Qantas, good airline but no divvy even with all that revenue.

And yet both are probably better, or at least less worse investments, than AIR at the present.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger