AIR - Air NZ.

[brend]

Cathay Pacific under pressure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...g-losses-mount

also some impact for AIR

"Also, the Hong Kong airport plans to increase parking and landing fees by as much as 27 percent for airlines starting Sept. 1" from the article.

Cathay yields must be under extreme pressure. doing some personal flight browsing I found....$2,600 return for AKL into mainland china (2 flights via hk) for 2 adults + 1 child vs $3,600 on AIR to shanghai

[workingdad]

also some impact for AIR

"Also, the Hong Kong airport plans to increase parking and landing fees by as much as 27 percent for airlines starting Sept. 1" from the article.

Cathay yields must be under extreme pressure. doing some personal flight browsing I found....$2,600 return for AKL into mainland china (2 flights via hk) for 2 adults + 1 child vs $3,600 on AIR to shanghai

Those airport charges will apply across the board so everyone will need to increase the fares to accommodate it as they cant absorb it with current climate.

With their hedging at over $80 a barrel I am not surprised they are suffering...... I think its great, the more the competition hurts the more likely they will be reconsidering expansion plans into our neck of the woods. AIR has managed its hedging very well which will help future bottom lines and no signs of a big oil price recovery just yet. I don't see the doom and gloom in the aviation industry as far as AIR is concerned. Yes its not the boom of last year but its not exactly falling off a cliff.

[Beagle]

It was heading down before the GFC hit

Maybe, just maybe, it is telling us that the next global crisis is about to hit us?

AIR management confident yields will normalise in FY18 after new entrants to routes in this part of the world get sick of flying here for nothing. All airlines discount the heck out of new routes to build business, i.e. opening specials, they don't last forever. I still reckon average analyst forecasts are way too optimistic for FY17 though. I reckon $500-$600m before tax.

[Biscuit]

...... I think its great, the more the competition hurts the more likely they will be reconsidering expansion plans into our neck of the woods.

My flight to Europe next month is AIR then Cathay, so linked to some extent, not just competition

[couta1]

Instos had another good day today, their selling pattern is so predictable, must be a bit of fun for the one in charge of the drip feed numbers throughout the day.(I wonder if they get extra commission if they manage to drip feed more than the target for the day) Mustn't be so cynical.

[Snow Leopard]

I remain baffled that the dominant research philosophy practiced by AIR holders with regard to the airline industry appears to be Wishful Thinking.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[workingdad]

I remain baffled that the dominant research philosophy practiced by AIR holders with regard to the airline industry appears to be Wishful Thinking.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I remain baffled that you keep jumping in here with such comments. From a senior member such as yourself I would have thought you held yourself to a higher standard that poking a stick around again and again with pointless and unconstructive comments. Perhaps PT you could take my comment on board and find the dignity becoming someone of the obvious high standing you consider yourself to be.

I have found a lot of the informative considered posts you have amassed to be beneficial on many an occasion but as a person on here with no bias perhaps you will give my comment above due consideration...... or perhaps not.....

[couta1]

I remain baffled that you keep jumping in here with such comments. From a senior member such as yourself I would have thought you held yourself to a higher standard that poking a stick around again and again with pointless and unconstructive comments. Perhaps PT you could take my comment on board and find the dignity becoming someone of the obvious high standing you consider yourself to be.

I have found a lot of the informative considered posts you have amassed to be beneficial on many an occasion but as a person on here with no bias perhaps you will give my comment above due consideration...... or perhaps not.....

A very considered post indeed. They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks but I myself have always found cats to be the most stubborn of creatures.

[Longhaul]

I remain baffled that the dominant research philosophy practiced by AIR holders with regard to the airline industry appears to be Wishful Thinking.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I find these comments useful although I can understand holders may not enjoy reading them.

Sometimes I read the AIR thread and think "wow, what a great opportunity", and other times I think "why go there".

We need all points of view to have an robust discussion and at the rate this thread moves we need regular comments from both sides.

Personally I've traded AIR once and got out with a small profit, but this stock is a complete mystery to me and I think there are better options that require less crystal-ball gazing.

Just my two cents.

[Beagle]

I find these comments useful although I can understand holders may not enjoy reading them.

Sometimes I read the AIR thread and think "wow, what a great opportunity", and other times I think "why go there".

We need all points of view to have an robust discussion and at the rate this thread moves we need regular comments from both sides.

Personally I've traded AIR once and got out with a small profit, but this stock is a complete mystery to me and I think there are better options that require less crystal-ball gazing.

Just my two cents.

There's useful informative counter arguments that make for an interesting and lively debate and then there's Plain Trolling. There's a clear difference.

There's an element of doubt in all companies future performance, some more than others as is the case here. The thing for investors to debate in a healthy robust way is whether that element of doubt is already sufficiently reflected, (maybe over or under) in the forward PE of about 4.6 whereas other airlines who are also facing extra competitive and yield pressures are generally trading on forward PE's of around 6.

Analysts know nothing right PT ?

Average analyst forecasted earnings before tax for FY17 is $749m Average forecast earnings 47.8 cps Forward PE at $2.19 = 4.58 Average forecast dividend yield 9.57% fully imputed = 13.3% gross.

Yeap, I'm basing my investment in AIR on wishful thinking, thin AIR and blind hope LOL. Even if earnings are 30% lower than average analyst forecast, (which I think they will be), the investment case is still very sound in my opinion.

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/