AIR - Air NZ.

[King1212]

So ex date is 8th sep and recorded date is 9th sept. That means we need to hold on 8 and 9 to be entitled the dividend...right? After that share could be sold?

[couta1]

I was having similar thoughts and share price needs to get over $2.35 so that ex divi price can hold above $2 which is a nice support level technically. The ex divi price should drop in theory by the amount of the dividend. The value of the company is 35c less the day the dividend is paid. All other things being equal, it should recover over time due to the fact more dividends will be paid in the future. Ironically, the higher it goes in the short term, the more comfortable I am being a holder. If the price stays around this level, I may sell before the record date.

The thing is no one knows how the stock will behave going Ex divvy, I could give you many examples over the last couple of years where stocks haven't dropped at all after going Ex. The market didn't know how big this divvy was going to be and has priced the stock in the $2.20ish range so there is also a good possibility that the SP may not drop at all or only marginally. The other thing is we don't know how far the SP is going to go before going Ex, just wanted to chuck these possibilities out there and that it may not be as clear cut as, It's going to drop 35c for sure. Funny how most of the gloom merchants posting on here are non holders aye.

[winner69]

What a week on this thread - nearly 240 posts and in spite of all the excitement, ramping etc the share price is down 1 cent for the week

C'est la vie

[BlackPeter]

So ex date is 8th sep and recorded date is 9th sept. That means we need to hold on 8 and 9 to be entitled the dividend...right? After that share could be sold?

If the 8th is ex dividend, than this is the first day you can sell it without losing the dividend.

[BlackPeter]

The thing is no one knows how the stock will behave going Ex divvy, I could give you many examples over the last couple of years where stocks haven't dropped at all after going Ex. The market didn't know how big this divvy was going to be and has priced the stock in the $2.20ish range so there is also a good possibility that the SP may not drop at all or only marginally. The other thing is we don't know how far the SP is going to go before going Ex, just wanted to chuck these possibilities out there and that it may not be as clear cut as, It's going to drop 35c for sure. Funny how most of the gloom merchants posting on here are non holders aye.

Absolutely correct - NOBODY can with certainty predict how a share price is going to develop. There are only likelihoods. Agree as well, that there are many cases where stocks lost less than the dividend (going ex) or recovered very soon. There are as well examples for stocks losing much more than the value of the dividend.

Related to your last sentence ("Funny how most of the gloom merchants posting on here are non holders aye"): I don't see how this would be strange or funny? Makes perfect sense that people concerned about the future SP (you call them gloom merchants) don't hold. Why would they if they expect the SP to drop? Just putting the money where their mouth is - so to speak.

Discl: not holding

PS: I know how it can feel if you really love your stock, and have been in similar positions like you are now. I apologise for annoying you by (presumably) being one of these "gloom merchants" touching your nerves. I learned however myself that while the "gloom merchants" are always annoying (for those who want to hold) and not always right (nobody is ...), they often have something worthwhile to say. Sure, there are plain down-rampers as well, but they are in my view the minority and easily compensated through the professional up-rampers (we all know them, don't we?).

Don't worry - she will be right, whatever right means - and I definitely wish you and all other AIR holders all the best. I could easily live with a rising SP ....

[RupertBear]

Yep and once that's finished other fish will start turning up looking for a good divvy feed.

This little fish had a wee nibble at $2.17

[Snow Leopard]

Volume today of 14,098,409 shares with a VWAP slightly under $2.21 !

AIR has not seen such as this since the government sell down in November 2013.

I see this has a grand battle between the short-term buyers who read the dividend bit and the those with longer time frames who read all the information.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: I will definitely be issuing a downgrade when I have the time.

[workingdad]

The thing is no one knows how the stock will behave going Ex divvy, I could give you many examples over the last couple of years where stocks haven't dropped at all after going Ex. The market didn't know how big this divvy was going to be and has priced the stock in the $2.20ish range so there is also a good possibility that the SP may not drop at all or only marginally. The other thing is we don't know how far the SP is going to go before going Ex, just wanted to chuck these possibilities out there and that it may not be as clear cut as, It's going to drop 35c for sure. Funny how most of the gloom merchants posting on here are non holders aye.

Yep, happened when I was holding GNE, no drop at all ex divvy last year.

My original post was questioning the logic of the formula/calculation from some not my personal opinion. I was getting the impression from some that the large special that hadn't been factored in was somehow going to result in a more negative outcome than they were indicating when it was being considered as a 5c special.

Just trying to get my head around the amount of shares traded today and some at 2.155. Beggars belief from my mind set.

There's been some big players selling off over the last couple of months when the AIR SP has shown strength and today I think seeing the size of the divvy made the decision to continue with this knowing the divvy announcement would give the SP strength. I am looking forward to seeing the end of this sell off and seeing how the SP does without that pressure.

Of surprise to me (seems to be a recurrent reaction with being an AIR holder) is there has yet to be an SSH notice since the drop from $3.

[Scrunch]

Of surprise to me (seems to be a recurrent reaction with being an AIR holder) is there has yet to be an SSH notice since the drop from $3.

Not really a surprise - There's a heap of institutions with holdings under 5% of the company being held in bank nominee accounts. As they are under 5% they can buy and sell with no announcements. The Crown holding 52% basically compresses the size of everyone else's holdings.

[winner69]

I think some guru analysts have been doing a bit of half year v half year analysis (especially seeing what's happened in H216) and reality checking some of AIRs numbers on their outlook slides.

Conclusion - F17 profitability is totally dependent on fuel costs, growing the top line might be a more difficult task