AIR - Air NZ.

[Snow Leopard]

I must say that parts of his numerous posts was rather like being savaged by a dead sheep

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

Qantas /AIR NZ agree on something - Welington runway extension

"Both Qantas and Air New Zealand opposed the project, along with the Board of Airline Representatives"

Out of self interest as it would allow other airlines,Singapore,others? to compete for OE from Wellingtonians and surrounding areas

[winner69]

Out of self interest as it would allow other airlines,Singapore,others? to compete for OE from Wellingtonians and surrounding areas

Out of self interest (and for economic reasons and for the sake of the environment) one of those submissions opposing the extension was mine

[Beagle]

So next year be less than phenomenal

Just bloody good

Nice one mate.

Out of self interest (and for economic reasons and for the sake of the environment) one of those submissions opposing the extension was mine

Can't impede the progress of Couta1's flash new boat enjoying fishing in the harbour can we

[RTFQ]

Qantas /AIR NZ agree on something - Welington runway extension

"Both Qantas and Air New Zealand opposed the project, along with the Board of Airline Representatives"

Please correct me if wrong, but I understand that the owners of Wellington airport are regulated with a return proportional to the capital value. Get the public to pay for a substandard Runway End Safety Area and they can extract a higher return proportional to the increased capital value. Long haul international flights to Wellington,"" YEA RIGHT""

[winner69]

Now full year out will there be another round of selling by Luxon and his team

That might be an indication if $2 .22 is a 'good' price or not

You never know - they might be queuing up to buy tomoorow (assuming the trading window is open)

[Beagle]

Now full year out will there be another round of selling by Luxon and his team

That might be an indication if $2 .22 is a 'good' price or not

You never know - they might be queuing up to buy tomoorow (assuming the trading window is open)

Window normally opens 1 trading day after the release of the financials. If I remember correctly Tony Cater and another director were buying at the last opportunity before trading window closed in the 220's somewhere.

I've been thinking about their ability to pay sustainable dividends of 20 cps per annum going forward in terms of their balance sheet strength and future net capex, (obviously satisfactory future earnings are also required).

Noted in accounts progress payments on new aircraft $420m. Will help towards $2.1b in capex over the next 5 years. In fact reflecting on my earlier post where I outlined net capex, excerpt reproduced below (real new capex after ordinary expected depreciation), you can see that the next 3 years which is the final hurdle to jump in the fleet replacement programme before their average age of aircraft comes down to a very low age of only 6.2 years), average age world-wide according to IATA is 9.9 years, we can see that the next 3 years total net effective capex is $370m but they have deposits on aircraft on order of $420m so in effect the company in terms of payments remaining on fleet modernisation programme the company has a net negative new capex payments required over the next 3 years of $50m ! Oh joy, here I was thinking they might struggle over the next 3 years a bit with peak cycle capex but of course I initially forgot to factor in existing progress payments on new aircraft already made. The $420m deposits is hugely relevant.

After Fy19 as noted earlier in my posts and as shown below they're really in "free cash flow clover" then in terms of free cash flow with effectively hundreds of millions of dollars per annum of net negative capex for 5-6 years.
Conclusion: Subject to satisfactory profitability in terms of their balance sheet strength and gearing and future capex The company appears to be very well positioned to pay high sustainable dividends going forward especially seeing as they had $1.6 billion in cash at balance date, and a further ~$140m odd repaid from their shareholder loan to Virgin on 4 August.

2017 $660m Est Depn $500m Net Capex $160m
2018 $700m Est Depn $520m Net Capex $180m
2019 $570m Est Depn $540m Net Capex $30m
2020 $150m Est Depn $560m Net Capex $(410m)
2021 $30 m Est Depn $560m Net Capex $(530m)

Conclusion, although a high risk stock this is a dividend hounds dream with projected gross dividend yield in the high teens (percent per annum) and it appears to be sustainable going forward subject only to reasonable level's of profitability.

Another minor little little tidbit from the accounts, in addition to taking a charge on the sale of their stake in Virgin they wrote down their remaining stake to 20.5 cps and expensed this within the accounts.
They subscribed for their 1:1 entitlement at 21 cps so they now have a stake of 2.5% or 205.8m shares valued at 20.75 cps in their balance sheet. Future gains or losses around the carrying value are to be included or expensed as other income other expense.

As at Friday 26th, (reporting day) when Virgin closed at 23.5 cps, if AIR's stake was marked to market (which it will be each balance date) they are presently sitting on an unrealised gain of $A5.66m.

[winner69]

I must say that parts of his numerous posts was rather like being savaged by a dead sheep

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

...even worse than "being savaged by a pet lamb"

But in fairness to him we should keep baa_baa out this critique of a fellow poster's posts

[winner69]

Look at the bottom of this page to see how many people are reading this thread. 120 who are not even members.

No doubt AIR investor Relations lurking to get an idea of how the result is seen

[winner69]

Thank you all. Will listen to it while doing the house work. I suppose I should spend an hour seen as they are paying me big div.

Pretty matey with the analysts aren't they

I like the several references to 'remember what we said to you on that investor day' (a few months ago) - nudge nudge wink wink you are special guys

And the likes of couta et al have to work things out or themselves 2nd and 3rd hand