AIR - Air NZ.

[Zaphod]

Does the plane have to wait for safety briefing to finish?

The briefing must take place before take-off. This however does not preclude the briefing from occurring during pushback or taxiing.

My take on the safety videos is that as long as there is a balance between the entertainment component and effective dissemination of safety information, then these sorts of videos are worthwhile.
The bland and boring style I regularly endure on other carriers makes NZ's approach very refreshing and personally, I have found myself pay far more attention.

[skid]

$500m the mid point of their forecast range gives 32 cps after tax. The reason for my work on free cash flow and capex was to establish whether the company is in a position to pay 20 cps in dividends going forward. $400m, the bottom end of their forecast range gives 25.6 cps. They have the balance sheet strength to pay that dividend for the foreseeable future and they're already broadly in a neutral new capex position relative to depreciation taking into account progress payments already made on new aircraft so perhaps the question is why wouldn't they ? Obviously the Government like their share of cash, (its not an accident they paid out the full proceeds of the Virgin sale). Interestingly on your last point Qan declined to give a profit forecast and last year the company didn't give a half year forecast until the annual meeting at the end of Sept, so as you say its a good thing that they're being so forthcoming so early in the year but people I am sure can understand because its so early in the year they had to give a wide range to account for a wide variety of possible future scenario's, hence the $400 - $600m.

Winner you are absolutely right. This pure bred hound has had to endure listening to highly experienced investors bleating for years that AIR can never make money because of their high current and future capex....to the point where it made my ears hurt. Those investors don't seem to have been able to understand the basic's that AIR are thoroughly modernising their fleet, go figure ?

Now I've shown their capex is broadly neutral for the next 3 years and then we can subsequently look forward to approx half a decade of tremendous cash flow with minimal capex its funny how they've gone quiet isn't it.

If Raz one of our favourite resident horse traders is looking at this stock more and more as an investment maybe long term investment in this airline isn't as crazy as it sounds after all.

Do you think that qualifies as a steep drop in underlying earnings? (Air New Zealands words-CL?) Im seeing a much rosier picture painted by posters, than by the Company--I may be labelled a ''naysayer'' but It appears Im in good company.
Anyone have a good explanation why the Company would say something like that? (Im more than happy to stand corrected)
If they (potentially) make half of what they made this year-(because of more expensive oil and more competition) then,aside from the divy,whats going to hold up the share price?

[see weed]

Do you think that qualifies as a steep drop in underlying earnings? (Air New Zealands words-CL?) Im seeing a much rosier picture painted by posters, than by the Company--I may be labelled a ''naysayer'' but It appears Im in good company.
Anyone have a good explanation why the Company would say something like that? (Im more than happy to stand corrected)
If they (potentially) make half of what they made this year-(because of more expensive oil and more competition) then,aside from the divy,whats going to hold up the share price?

I am going to hold up the share price. It will be too tempting not to with that big yield. And if the sp goes to low, then more buyers will just keep buying. Lot of sellers now before ex day will be back at the right price. And a lot of buyers now before ex day will not want to sell too much after ex day because it will only push the value of their shares down. If the price of oil goes up, then it might push out a bit of the competition. If sp goes back to 1.90, then I would buy more, but if it did, I'm sure it wouldn't be there for long. In fact, would probably start buying in $2.05c. There's going to be a bit of money floating around on pay day.

[peat]

I am going to hold up the share price. .

that's a bold thing to say. see weed is actually Zeuss!!

[Beagle]

Do you think that qualifies as a steep drop in underlying earnings? (Air New Zealands words-CL?) Im seeing a much rosier picture painted by posters, than by the Company--I may be labelled a ''naysayer'' but It appears Im in good company.
Anyone have a good explanation why the Company would say something like that? (Im more than happy to stand corrected)
If they (potentially) make half of what they made this year-(because of more expensive oil and more competition) then,aside from the divy,whats going to hold up the share price?

Not worth debating semantics other that to point out that if FY17 comes in at the top of the guidance range net profit before tax won't be much less than FY16 after taking into account in FY16 they took a number of one-off charges from historical fiasco's neither of which were caused by present management.

32 cps earnings and 20 cps fully imputed dividends is the company's own forecast at mid point of forecast range $500m. That's a PE of 6 at theoretical ex divvy price of $1.92 ($2.27 - .35) and a gross yield of 14.47% Perhaps FY17 is the peak of the competitive cycle..who can say for sure but those metrics are compelling in my book when compared to a 10 year average PE of 11 and a market average PE of ~ 20.

Every stock carries risk...its all relative to PE and earnings yield and this hound reckons there's good value here.

P.S. A slight edit to the previous comments I made about reinvesting the forthcoming dividend before you get it into new shares now to compound future returns, thus getting ~ 17% gross.

That strategy is only validated when the SP recovers after going ex divvy back to where it was cum divvy and given the size of the forthcoming divvy that might take a bit of time, how long ?..how long is a piece of string ?...maybe some people might like to google "dividend stripping" and have a look at some of the research on that investment strategy.

I think a point that's lost here by many is that the FY17 profit forecast is off a lower asset base and for those that chose to reinvest the extra 25 cps special divvy (which is really a form of return of capital) their future dividends will be higher so that's basically what I've decided to do, reinvest the 25cps, (already done), and enjoy the other 10cps

[winner69]

Even with a 'steep drop in earnings' f17 will still be the 2nd or 3rd best year in 76 years of operation so Rob told us the other day

[couta1]

Hey winner as an aside, have you booked your Guns N Roses tickets yet?old Slash has to be up there as one of the best guitarists aye, we won't need to fly Air to Auckland for this one.

[winner69]

Hey winner as an aside, have you booked your Guns N Roses tickets yet?old Slash has to be up there as one of the best guitarists aye, we won't need to fly Air to Auckland for this one.

Yep, $352 each

More than a weeks super that is - but that is what national super is intended for, little treats as a reward for all we have done for the country over the years

[winner69]

Hey winner as an aside, have you booked your Guns N Roses tickets yet?old Slash has to be up there as one of the best guitarists aye, we won't need to fly Air to Auckland for this one.

But thousands will be flying AIR to see it

If they fly Jetstar - they miss the concert

[couta1]

Yep, $352 each

More than a weeks super that is - but that is what national super is intended for, little treats as a reward for all we have done for the country over the years

I must be a cheap skate as we got 2 tickets for the price of one of yours, your right about Jetstar although pilot may also be concertgoer so would have incentive to get there on time.