AIR - Air NZ.

[modandm]

AIR has had a good run over the last 12 months. Any reason why I shouldn't sell at these levels and if so inclined, buy back in when the Gummint sells down? What I am contemplating is whether there is more upside prior to the sell down and what the price and effect of the selldown will be. Any thoughts?

Its tough to anticipate what the price or effect of the govt sell down will be so its not something I worry about.

What does have me concerned is the recent decline in the NZD, the strong NZD has been a key reason to own the stock, with that reversing I am no longer so keen and am going to start trimming.

As noodles also noted the April stats were a bit weak - my revenue growth assumption has been revised downwards too.

Specifically on the operating stats yield (year on year) fell from +3.8% in March to +0.5% in April and RPK growth fell from +2.8% to -0.8% so quite a bad result...

[noodles]

Its tough to anticipate what the price or effect of the govt sell down will be so its not something I worry about.

What does have me concerned is the recent decline in the NZD, the strong NZD has been a key reason to own the stock, with that reversing I am no longer so keen and am going to start trimming.

As noodles also noted the April stats were a bit weak - my revenue growth assumption has been revised downwards too.

Specifically on the operating stats yield (year on year) fell from +3.8% in March to +0.5% in April and RPK growth fell from +2.8% to -0.8% so quite a bad result...

Another profit upgrade today...and another rather muted response from the market. Heck, it seems profits dont matter anymore. I might capitulate and buy snk xro sli etc

[Stranger_Danger]

noodles - You'd be better switching to cash. I relate to your feeling, this really is an "enchanted" market.

[biker]

Thanks noodles and modandm. Sold some yesterday with the upgrade news and holding the rest for the annual result. Just trying to time the cycle. Have taken good profits on the way up so not too worried.
Thanks for your responses

[noodles]

Its tough to anticipate what the price or effect of the govt sell down will be so its not something I worry about.

What does have me concerned is the recent decline in the NZD, the strong NZD has been a key reason to own the stock, with that reversing I am no longer so keen and am going to start trimming.

As noodles also noted the April stats were a bit weak - my revenue growth assumption has been revised downwards too.

Specifically on the operating stats yield (year on year) fell from +3.8% in March to +0.5% in April and RPK growth fell from +2.8% to -0.8% so quite a bad result...

Modandm,
i'm struggling to work out how you got the +.5% yield. Is that derived from other figures?

[noodles]

noodles - You'd be better switching to cash. I relate to your feeling, this really is an "enchanted" market.

Cash!? That would mean paying off the mortgage. If my wife saw the mortage go down, she might want to upgrade the house... Or worse, renovate. I've recently brought some hnz. I might have a punt on wynyard. Lots of action on the aussie markets atm. We are seeing lots of downgrades. Some good shorting oportunities.

[modandm]

Modandm,
i'm struggling to work out how you got the +.5% yield. Is that derived from other figures?

Yes from the delta of Ytd group yield each month.

Buying today . Market due for correction after strong run (mostly just pe going up), air nz on the other hand pe has gone down so weakness in air is buying opportunity for me.

On the currency weakness have decided that will not effect fy13 or fy14 result and market likely too stupid to factor it in fy15. Stock is on 9x fy13 and less than 6x fy14 ignoring virgin worth c.30cps now...

I'm calling the stock at 175 post results and div so a good 25pct to come in near term. Seems the pattern now so sticking with it

Finally in stock news I read jet star is cutting nz capacity which is pleasing. I continue to be impressed by the strength of nz domestic and new a320s arriving now -first today- should continue to see some growth.

[noodles]

Op Stats out today.

Good to see that RPK's are back on track (up 3.7%) and ytd yield is stable after weak RPK's last month.

This is consistent with the company's forecast of being at the top end of guidance.

[Food4Thought]

Any one else think AIR is currently a good buy? Potential for a serious uplift in share price heading to full year results and dividend? Also did that accident with ASIANA impact AIR NZ for their flights etc? possible damage to income?

[CJ]

Any one else think AIR is currently a good buy? Potential for a serious uplift in share price heading to full year results and dividend? Also did that accident with ASIANA impact AIR NZ for their flights etc? possible damage to income?

If anything ASIANA impact into the sea wall will be positive for airlines with a good safety record like AIR.