AIR - Air NZ.

[skid]

Lets face it --It was getting a bit thick there,with talk of guaranteed profits and low hanging fruit--This is not a no brainer--It could end well--and it could come completely unstuck (remember the talk when it was more than $3--talk of 227 would have gotten you tared and feathered)
AIR has had a sweet deal but no one really knows how hard competition will bite(including AIR) They are certainly taking it seriously though(more than some posters) so if one wants to take a punt,fair game,but lets not delude ourselves into thinking it cant go wrong. The instos selling, is a very common excuse that is bandied around on many sites.(but insitutions dont sell to lose money)
Those that have ALOT invested ,best of luck...but to those that are still wondering,lets not forget that those that are the most vocal for the most part have a vested interest in seeing the SP increase..(they have broken a few rules in terms of spreading risk,for better or worse).of course they are ''optimistic'' Others have to take that into consideration when trying to make a decision--It may come up spades in the end but or it could get ugly..nothing is guaranteed,....Its as simple as that...hmm,maybe not so simple.

[Beagle]

Its getting pretty thick on the naysayer side of things now Skid. I get it, you think there's genuine risks. Do you get it that based on the mid point of management's forecast in the middle of one of the most competitive periods of the companies history we're now looking at a forward PE of 5.8, (compared to a ten year average of about 11), and a gross dividend yield of ~14.5% ?

I think management have their heads screwed on pretty well and can navigate this bird through the turbulence.

[Snow Leopard]

A kind heart is a fountain of gladness...
Washington Irving

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Raz]

Yup there is risk..so which investment/s on the NZX currently perceive is less risky and a more compelling case for you Skid?

[skid]

Its getting pretty thick on the naysayer side of things now Skid. I get it, you think there's genuine risks. Do you get it that based on the mid point of management's forecast in the middle of one of the most competitive periods of the companies history we're now looking at a forward PE of 5.8, (compared to a ten year average of about 11), and a gross dividend yield of ~14.5% ?

I think management have their heads screwed on pretty well and can navigate this bird through the turbulence.

Their forcasts come with a warning...and they could get it wrong couldnt they?-(after all ,they havent been operating in this coming competitive environment so the jury's out(they may have to cut prices to meet that competition and that could affect those projections)--All Im saying ,is take a step back and have a good think..you can call it naysaying..I dont mind.
Im allowing plenty of room for a positive outcome but I dont think some posts have been realistic as to the risks
Caution may not be sexy but it can be helpful in making decisions.
Being heavly overweight in one share is generally not recommended so one should at least review why that is the case before jumping in.
I cant imagine one can put the amount of work into a share as you have and not get a little bit attached-If doubting the company offends you,then that may be the case (in any case Im not directing any criticism at you personally)- Bystanders should weigh all options.
I personally would have thought the SP would have gotten more legs this past week if things were indeed as rosy as was hoped--but thats just one of many opinions

Disc--have nothing to gain by anything mentioned

[workingdad]

Instos selling for a reason? Like they are always right. They are certInly more risk adverse. Just look at CEN when it was smashed down 30odd percent. Tiwai the magic gloom word amount other things Look at them now, one of the best investments I made was going against the grain of the wise instos.

Dick smith anyone? Perhaps Katmandu?

I'm not saying it's without risk but dollar for dollar AIR is a Better bet than most and there's not many companies that don't face competition. Compare AIR to other airlines and they well under value SP wise yet enjoy a domestic market that has survived more than one competitor and let's face it, jetstar aren't exactly a well polished machine.

Internationally yeah more significant competition and enough to impact on profits but not enough to warrant a less than solid year by histories standards.

Tourism, migration, fuel prices all in favor of a decent year. Generally business and play of today's day and age is increasingly involving air travel.

I don't agree with not balancing a portfolio to hedge ones bets but I am comfortable being a holder of AIR.

[skid]

Instos selling for a reason? Like they are always right. They are certInly more risk adverse. Just look at CEN when it was smashed down 30odd percent. Tiwai the magic gloom word amount other things Look at them now, one of the best investments I made was going against the grain of the wise instos.

Dick smith anyone? Perhaps Katmandu?

I'm not saying it's without risk but dollar for dollar AIR is a Better bet than most and there's not many companies that don't face competition. Compare AIR to other airlines and they well under value SP wise yet enjoy a domestic market that has survived more than one competitor and let's face it, jetstar aren't exactly a well polished machine.

Internationally yeah more significant competition and enough to impact on profits but not enough to warrant a less than solid year by histories standards.

Tourism, migration, fuel prices all in favor of a decent year. Generally business and play of today's day and age is increasingly involving air travel.

I don't agree with not balancing a portfolio to hedge ones bets but I am comfortable being a holder of AIR.

Fair enough--Not necessarily saying Instos are the bees knees--But sometimes the poor ole instos get blamed for everything...Anyway ,should be an interesting week ,and best of luck to all!

[Baa_Baa]

The very brave will hold, ex div. Whether underwater or not. Will they disclose their losses or gains ?

The brave will hold ex-div, until they don't. But they're less likely to disclose. Unless they profit.

The bold will hold until ex-div, then sell. They'll tell you about it sometime afterwards. Maybe.

The less bold will not hold, they'll sell prior to ex-div, they won't say a thing. Mostly.

The patient will wait and pickup the buy of the decade, ex-div. So they say. If they tell.

The timid will do nothing. As they do or not do.

The disconcerted will laugh in the face of all the above.

The disconnected will pretend they're not any of the above.

[silverblizzard888]

The Savvy will sell some prior to ex-div, hold after and buy a good bargain on dip and never tell a word unless provoked.

[boysy]

$1349 return trip to London from Air China. Will be interesting to see how AIR responds as they will need to keep load factors up on these long haul routes , how heavily will they need to discount is the $64,000 question. The next few monthly operating statistics will be very interesting as these will start to show the impact of the increased level of competition especially long haul. My bet the monthly op stats both short and long haul will start to get nasty rather quickly from here while domestic should hold up. DYOR and look beyond the divi yield as with a earnings downgrade the divi will drop accordingly.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/...ectid=11703412