AIR - Air NZ.

**BlackPeter** · 12-09-2016, 10:07 AM

Ouch - dropped like a stone through the 200 mark. Time for couta to back up the truck?

Kids, don't try that at home ...

**bull....** · 12-09-2016, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Ouch - dropped like a stone through the 200 mark. Time for couta to back up the truck?

Kids, don't try that at home ...

or breakout the wiskey

**workingdad** · 12-09-2016, 10:26 AM

investing has different approaches from different people or even a multifaceted approach. AIR for me is what can I get some money I don't need to access for some years do for me while it is parked up, shares go up, shares go down, cyclical or not, selling on a low is not smart investing neither is buying on a high. So many companies out there are overpriced and more risk of a downside than others. Looking through the cycle of AIR and the projected dividends on offer for the foreseeable future I cant think of too many in the same range, is it a risk and what is that risk? SP dropping short to medium term - yes, long term will it always be low - not likely as at some stage the cycle will return.

I plan on buying more, have been thinking about it for a while now but waiting for a bottom range to be more obvious. Happy to hold what I have which is a third of what I had at the highest point and take some divvies in the interim. Hedged my bets a bit but in saying that, I think AIR is a good place to park some money in the longer term and have that money work for me making reasonably good income off them throughout.

**winner69** · 12-09-2016, 10:52 AM

Quote workingdad - .....I think AIR is a good place to park some money in the longer term .....

Workingdad - with all due respect i would contend that a stock like AIR is the WORST place to park your money.

Just my view - each to their own I guess

**Beagle** · 12-09-2016, 11:01 AM

Analysts have a very poor track record of guessing any further out than the company gives them visibility...i.e. companies own track record of forecasting is at least as good as analysts. They're confident the company can pay 20 cps fully imputed across the cycle which equates to a gross dividend yield of 14.17% at $1.96. Present company management and directors are well respected and I wouldn't be surprised to see Chris Luxon win CEO of the year award at this year's Deloitte Top 200 company awards. Risks, sure as those with a negative view are so keen to remind us at every SP down-draft opportunity, (but keep strangely silent when the SP goes up ?), but 14% is a very robust return for those looking long term. The Government have done very well investing across the cycle, maybe shareholders can too.

**Gringo** · 12-09-2016, 11:26 AM

If as Roger suggests AIR can maintain 20c DPS for the next 5 years thru the cycle, AIR makes a compelling long-term investment to me IF you reinvest all dividends.
For example, if one bought 7,500 shares @ 2.00 for $15,000 - after 5 years total value would be $24,158. # shares 12,079 (4,579 more); $9,158 dividends paid. Annualized return of 10%.
Numbers might be a bit off (depends on online div calculator used), but principle sound I think.
Assumes no SP appreciation, no dividend DPS change, no special div, no tax
THE POWER OR COMPOUND INTEREST...

**workingdad** · 12-09-2016, 11:37 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

Workingdad - with all due respect i would contend that a stock like AIR is the WORST place to park your money.

Just my view - each to their own I guess

Are you saying that AIRs SP will always be under pressure and the cyclical nature will never result in another period of 2.50 + in the next cycle? I am not trying to be argumentative, just curious to understand why you have that view. If I buy more shares at the bottom of the cycle and sit back on greater than 10% returns for a few years or more I would have thought this was a reasonable return.

I played trader for a while in the last few years and averaged 17% returns but still have thoughts the market is well overpriced and prefer to change my strategy which doesn't involve spending time watching it waiting for the next BREXIT or FED rate rise......

**fish** · 12-09-2016, 11:40 AM

Thanks roger
Your post helped me to buy more at 196
Risky stock but room for some in my portfolio with heaps of dividends awaiting I like to get in first before others start buying-they have to put their money somewhere and I cant see many stocks with this sort of dividend-even better than the GEN,CEN and NZO I hold.
I do like dividends and the advice I get on this forum is balanced-you have to put it on your own scales rather than accepting what brokers advise