AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Hadn't given it a lot of thought to be honest, they are funding the capex with the life passes which I guess reduces the season pass numbers and income. Nothing is guaranteed and its been a pretty average season this year with both school holidays less than ideal with limited snow cover and bad weather but being the only ski fields of substance in the north island demand will always be there. I would however like to see a shake up in the board as I think a lot of the issues come down to how its being run by some......

With near two thirds of the NZ population living in the NI they have the numbers, but the company let's itself down on many levels including its overpaid incompetent board. The aim now is to attract more overseas snow sports lovers to the mountain as an alternative to the likes of Q/town but that's a tough ask due to the isolation of the place, lack of amenities in the area etc. Any extra tourists they can attract will no doubt be good for Air though.

[winner69]

Wouldn't surprise me that come January/February AIR will come out and say "FY17 NPBT is likely to be at the lower end of previous guidance of $400-$600"

Wouldn't be as bad as a revised guidance range of $300m-$500m would it

Good to think ahead - that's my theory and planning accordingly

[Arbroath]

Topped up at $1.79 yesterday for an ave now of $2.10. I see them maintaining the 20c divi for at least the next 2 years - don't think anyone can guarantee anything beyond then but Air with there young fleet and high operating cashflow (low capex) from FY18/19 is better placed than most, if not all, their competitors to compete especially if Oil goes back to US70-80 a barrell.

[couta1]

Wouldn't surprise me that come January/February AIR will come out and say "FY17 NPBT is likely to be at the lower end of previous guidance of $400-$600"

Wouldn't be as bad as a revised guidance range of $300m-$500m would it

Good to think ahead - that's my theory and planning accordingly

The current bargin SP has factored in the bottom end of the guidance range and just about every other negative as well IMO.

[Beagle]

Wouldn't surprise me that come January/February AIR will come out and say "FY17 NPBT is likely to be at the lower end of previous guidance of $400-$600"

Wouldn't be as bad as a revised guidance range of $300m-$500m would it

Good to think ahead - that's my theory and planning accordingly

Yes as discussed by e.mail that's definitely the risk. Downgrades tend to come in three's. We had the downgrade in May at the so called investor day briefing, the official downgrade at the time of the annual result with a wide range, (far better than no range as to the best of my knowledge neither VAH or QAN are brave enough to even issue a forecast or a range,.... haven't looked recently so don't take that as gospel), but the risk is definitely there of an indication towards one end of the range or the other and I think looking at the heat of the competition lately and pricing the risk is to the downside. In recent weeks I have downgraded my thinking from the mid point of the forecast range $500m where the analysts are at to the lower end.

The current bargin SP has factored in the bottom end of the guidance range and just about every other negative as well IMO.

I tend to agree with you mate. As noted above consensus analyst view is just on $500m before tax and their view is the shares are worth $2.20 if they can hit that target.
I think its clear the market thinks this is unlikely at this point, hence the current price.

I don't think the "opening specials" by new entrants will last indefinitely so FY17 or FY18 could be the bottom of this cycle.

[skid]

Hadn't given it a lot of thought to be honest, they are funding the capex with the life passes which I guess reduces the season pass numbers and income. Nothing is guaranteed and its been a pretty average season this year with both school holidays less than ideal with limited snow cover and bad weather but being the only ski fields of substance in the north island demand will always be there. I would however like to see a shake up in the board as I think a lot of the issues come down to how its being run by some......

You have come up with some pretty good reasons (add an eruption or personal injury)to perhaps be a bit careful with a lifetime pass--How many things have you purchased that are still the same after say 20yrs? The alternative is seasons passes as you go,still doesnt rule out skiing--I can think of several prominent ski fields that have changed ownership (in Canada where my daughters went)

[Beagle]

Off topic but yeah I certainly think that personal injury is a huge risk with skiing. No saying for sure from one season to another, (for some of us middle aged folk) from one day to another whether you'll be good to go again. The future is uncertain, no fate but what we make...(with apologies to the Terminator series of films).
Flying to Queenstown on Air New Zealand and skiing there is one of life's greatest pleasures...hope my hip improves so I can do it next winter.

[iceman]

Off topic but yeah I certainly think that personal injury is a huge risk with skiing. No saying for sure from one season to another, (for some of us middle aged folk) from one day to another whether you'll be good to go again. The future is uncertain, no fate but what we make...(with apologies to the Terminator series of films).
Flying to Queenstown on Air New Zealand and skiing there is one of life's greatest pleasures...hope my hip improves so I can do it next winter.

Or you could take a cheap Jetstar flight to Nelson and go up to Rainbow and stop at Tahunanui beach on the way home (see photos attached). Sorry Rog, couldn't help myself and stay off topic :-)Attachment 8353Attachment 8354

[Beagle]

Or you could take a cheap Jettar flight to Nelson and go up to Rainboow and stop at Tahunanui each on the way home (see photos attached). Sorry Rog, couldn't help myself and stay off topic :-)Attachment 8353Attachment 8354

As long as you don't mind playing Russian Roulette as to whether the flight actually happens or not

Actually in all seriousness the incident at Wellington where about 700 people were left stranded really does beg the question of what's acceptable business practice and what's not.
Surely a well run airline has contingency plans in place for crew sickness ? Crew sickness is not a strange or unusual event, its not an Act of God or unusual phenomenon.
Many of us understand standard deviations from the norm. To what extent should an airline have reserve staff to cope with unusually high standard deviations from normal level's of sickness ?
I think this is quite an interesting discussion point. Chatting with a leading boat manufacturer's owner recently he told me the level of reliability to / from Napier of Jetstar's "service" had raised a lot of eyebrows in the business community there. His feedback, (he travels a lot within N.Z.) is if you're travelling on business the decision on which airline to fly is a complete no brainer and if you're travelling on leisure and choose Jetstar then you'd better be sure you take travel insurance.

He told me he thinks Jetstar are running an absolute bare bones service with very minimal crew and spare parts back up and support and the likelihood of actually getting to your destination and on time is lower than what many people find to be acceptable.

[skid]

As long as you don't mind playing Russian Roulette as to whether the flight actually happens or not

Actually in all seriousness the incident at Wellington where about 700 people were left stranded really does beg the question of what's acceptable business practice and what's not.
Surely a well run airline has contingency plans in place for crew sickness ? Crew sickness is not a strange or unusual event, its not an Act of God or unusual phenomenon.
Many of us understand standard deviations from the norm. To what extent should an airline have reserve staff to cope with unusually high standard deviations from normal level's of sickness ?
I think this is quite an interesting discussion point. Chatting with a leading boat manufacturer's owner recently he told me the level of reliability to from Napier of Jetstar's "service" had raised a lot of eyebrows in the business community there. His feedback, (he travels a lot within N.Z.) is if you're travelling on business the decision on which airline to fly is a complete no brainer and if you're travelling on leisure and choose Jetstar then you'd better be sure you take travel insurance.

He told me he thinks Jetstar are running an absolute bare bones service with very minimal crew and spare parts back up and support and the likelihood of actually getting to your destination and on time is lower than what many people find to be acceptable.

Just looking at the stats,Jetstar have slipped a bit of late but the 2 airlines have fluctuated alot over the years.Some periods Jetstar has better stats--so a blanket statement like that is probably a tad unfair. New stats for this year are out in Jan.
I would imagine business passengers will choose AIR anyway as you get a drink etc.--Im not sure Jetstar is aiming at the business customers anyway in terms of priority. Probably more all those who want to get from A to B at a cheaper price.