AIR - Air NZ.

[Nasi Goreng]

Where to next? $1.50 or $2?

[Cool Bear]

Where to next? $1.50 or $2?

hopefully $2. I am fast running out of fingers. All those falling knives.

[winner69]

Where to next? $1.50 or $2?

Sicklical stocks often behave very orderly.

Bear in mind the bottom of the last 2 cycles have been sub $1. The way true sicklicals behave this is again possible

Sicklicals can cycle upwards so maybe not quite this bad this time --- but sub $1.50 is on the cards

Sicklicals (esp airlines) defy logic sometimes



Promise not to repost that chart that haunts/fascinates me ....and would be starting to haunt some of you

[Beagle]

No ,Im not trying to draw that bow at all--I have no idea if it will happen again---what Im saying is that you cant imply that the dividend will be free and clear as in free money-(it didnt happen this time,so by definition its not a given next time- thats all. I dont think it can be used as ''bait'' for buying shares.---Thats not to say that some of it ,or even all of it wont be free and clear next time...maybe,maybe not........It sure is a baffling share though aint it?
I thinkm its all about performance and market sentiment now...the rest will follow.

There are so many surprises I think you have to look at TA--Its just not behaving in terms of fundamentals.

I'm investing for the long run Skid, 5 years + Management are confident that the company can pay a sustainable dividend of 20 cps per annum. Management in my view are credible, they have been credible in the last few years with their forecasts. Where the SP goes over the long run in my view is a separate matter from any consideration of whether they can or can't pay 20 cps per annum. The consensus view of 6 professional analysts is the stock is worth $2.20 and the consensus view of those analysts is the company can afford to pay 20 cps for the foreseeable future.
The capex holiday after FY19 reinforces my belief that this is a good long term dividend payer. I get it that many people are disappointed that the SP came down in line with the dividend paid this time.

Dividend stripping usually works, I have never once said it always works. The market is clearly disappointed to see executives continuing to treat their incentive shares as an ATM machine.
I'll leave it at that.

[Nasi Goreng]

I think it needs another capitulation day, there was one on the last leg down pre dividend which got it to around the $2.02 area from memory. Another 2-3% drop in a day and the sharks may not be able to contain themselves.

[Zaphod]

Sicklical stocks often behave very orderly.

Bear in mind the bottom of the last 2 cycles have been sub $1. The way true sicklicals behave this is again possible

Sicklicals can cycle upwards so maybe not quite this bad this time --- but sub $1.50 is on the cards

Sicklicals (esp airlines) defy logic sometimes



Promise not to repost that chart that haunts/fascinates me ....and would be starting to haunt some of you

Yes, it's very much a "sicklical" stock at the moment! Postiviely anemic unfortunately.

[skid]

I'm investing for the long run Skid, 5 years + Management are confident that the company can pay a sustainable dividend of 20 cps per annum. Management in my view are credible, they have been credible in the last few years with their forecasts. Where the SP goes over the long run in my view is a separate matter from any consideration of whether they can or can't pay 20 cps per annum. The consensus view of 6 professional analysts is the stock is worth $2.20 and the consensus view of those analysts is the company can afford to pay 20 cps for the foreseeable future.
The capex holiday after FY19 reinforces my belief that this is a good long term dividend payer. I get it that many people are disappointed that the SP came down in line with the dividend paid this time.

Dividend stripping usually works, I have never once said it always works. The market is clearly disappointed to see executives continuing to treat their incentive shares as an ATM machine.
I'll leave it at that.

Fair enough--I was'nt really doubting the amount you forecast for divi-----Youd think there would be a better way for management to get fed--like a bonus at divi time or something

[see weed]

As I have said before, paying out big special div was the problem with sp crash. They should of paid out half or a third at Christmas and the rest later on about 3 months after normal div. to give a bit of incentive and something to look forward to, and the sp would probably be still at $2.10 to $2.20. But on the other hand, good for topping up at these lower prices. Bought 3 lots today at 1.79, 1.74 and 1.715.

[Snow Leopard]

this is too scary to watch

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[King1212]

As I have said before, paying out big special div was the problem with sp crash. They should of paid out half or a third at Christmas and the rest later on about 3 months after normal div. to give a bit of incentive and something to look forward to, and the sp would probably be still at $2.10 to $2.20. But on the other hand, good for topping at these lower prices. Bought 3 lots today at 1.79, 1.74 and 1.715.

way to go see weed...!