AIR - Air NZ.

[modandm]

Model update

Capacity growth of 4-7% between FY15 and FY17 supports stronger pax revenue figures. I have done some work on long term model post a one on one with the CFO. Using current spot fuel and FX, my base case sees earnings of 24c this year, 33c next year and 40c in FY16. This supports dividends of 11,16,20c + specials and small buy backs (mostly just neutralises dilution of management options). Assumption is 3% revenue growth this year, then 5% for 3 years.

My target valuation for 12m time is $2.64 which is 8x FY15 expected EPS, ignoring the value of VAH stake. Add dividends and that was over 100% from the price last week - I bought a lot pre-results in the 140's and reinvested my dividend (over 30k) at 1.44. Do I think it will get to $2.64? It should but if the stock remains at 6x forward PE it will be at about $2 or up 33% + 11c div = 40% from $1.51. That will leave more upside for later...

Would have posted that last week was opportune to buy - but was in the market myself, and chasing stock.

[tosspot]

Not sure how you have access to inside information but don't think you should be boasting about it on the internet... In fact what you did is actually illegal. Disseminating market sensitive insider knowledge.

I think what he did was good. why should we not have access to the same information and the people that did know before announced puts us at a huge disadvantage

[Flogs]

Model update

Capacity growth of 4-7% between FY15 and FY17 supports stronger pax revenue figures. I have done some work on long term model post a one on one with the CFO. Using current spot fuel and FX, my base case sees earnings of 24c this year, 33c next year and 40c in FY16. This supports dividends of 11,16,20c + specials and small buy backs (mostly just neutralises dilution of management options). Assumption is 3% revenue growth this year, then 5% for 3 years.

My target valuation for 12m time is $2.64 which is 8x FY15 expected EPS, ignoring the value of VAH stake. Add dividends and that was over 100% from the price last week - I bought a lot pre-results in the 140's and reinvested my dividend (over 30k) at 1.44. Do I think it will get to $2.64? It should but if the stock remains at 6x forward PE it will be at about $2 or up 33% + 11c div = 40% from $1.51. That will leave more upside for later...

Would have posted that last week was opportune to buy - but was in the market myself, and chasing stock.

modandm, I really appreciate your research & posts. Very helpful.

Was there any indication given at AGM of how this year is trading and anticipated earnings for FY14?

[freddagg]

the entire market seemed to know well before fft. now that's food for thought...

I don't think so.
FFT posted before opening on the 26th and the price didn't move until 11.30am and then only 2 cents for the day.
It really started moving on the 27th from 10.30am.

[golden city]

i have just get out at 1.525.., bought it at 1.35 after dividends.., company is good., but the govt sell down..might held up the price movement at moment.., keep pocket safe., have taken my profit...

[gv1]

i have just get out at 1.525.., bought it at 1.35 after dividends.., company is good., but the govt sell down..might held up the price movement at moment.., keep pocket safe., have taken my profit...

Or R U trying to scare the herd and then indulge by yourself..

[modandm]

I think what he did was good. why should we not have access to the same information and the people that did know before announced puts us at a huge disadvantage

I suggest you do some basic research because you clearly don't know what you are talking about. We are not supposed to be at a disadvantage, because those with inside information are not allowed to buy or sell based on that information. To do so, or to pass on information you know to be 'inside information' is against the law - simple as that.

[Food4Thought]

Not sure how you have access to inside information but don't think you should be boasting about it on the internet... In fact what you did is actually illegal. Disseminating market sensitive insider knowledge.

It was a guess... based on how the business is performing, on a year on year basis, what else are they going to do? They are playing a very smart game, of slowly increasing confidence in their company. Their Marketing is amazing.

Note: Do not work for AIRNZ, or anyone who would get inside information, I am basing my views/take/play on information that is available to anyone who does some DYOR.

AIRnz is doing very well, and they are playing clever cards. Clever as they are not over promising and under delivering. A highly reputable, profitable, well managed business that has a great image/brand. That is my personal opinion. I think their current situation has taken a lot of effort and smarts to get them to this level, something many other listed NZX companies could learn a great deal from. I see them currently being 25% below what the market will lift them to comfortably within 12 months...

[gv1]

It was a guess... based on how the business is performing, on a year on year basis, what else are they going to do? They are playing a very smart game, of slowly increasing confidence in their company. Their Marketing is amazing.

Note: Do not work for AIRNZ, or anyone who would get inside information, I am basing my views/take/play on information that is available to anyone who does some DYOR.

AIRnz is doing very well, and they are playing clever cards. Clever as they are not over promising and under delivering. A highly reputable, profitable, well managed business that has a great image/brand. That is my personal opinion. I think their current situation has taken a lot of effort and smarts to get them to this level, something many other listed NZX companies could learn a great deal from. I see them currently being 25% below what the market will lift them to comfortably within 12 months...

Thanks for the infor, couldn't agree more with you. I also stated earlier on in the forum about buying in this company , also looking at the stats etc.

[gv1]

It was a guess... based on how the business is performing, on a year on year basis, what else are they going to do? They are playing a very smart game, of slowly increasing confidence in their company. Their Marketing is amazing.

Note: Do not work for AIRNZ, or anyone who would get inside information, I am basing my views/take/play on information that is available to anyone who does some DYOR.

AIRnz is doing very well, and they are playing clever cards. Clever as they are not over promising and under delivering. A highly reputable, profitable, well managed business that has a great image/brand. That is my personal opinion. I think their current situation has taken a lot of effort and smarts to get them to this level, something many other listed NZX companies could learn a great deal from. I see them currently being 25% below what the market will lift them to comfortably within 12 months...

Thanks for the infor, couldn't agree more with you. I also stated earlier on in the forum about buying in this company , also looking at the stats etc.