AIR - Air NZ.

[modandm]

looks like the govt is push finding ways to push up share prices and sell the stakes

That is not possible. More it looks like sour grapes for you - missing out. Should be a lesson in why its best not to try and predict short term price moves.

I contacted investor relations. Air NZ has not been buying stock - if they do there will be daily announcements.

A couple of recent positives:
1. NZD strengthening vs USD - 1c gain on the cross = about 4% uplift to earnings
2. Oil price slightly weaker
3. Qantas had a negative announcement - possibly some aussies looking to play airlines buying AIR - some decent volume picking up
4. Technical breakout for you silly TA folk

But the most important reason is management commentary post the FY - guiding for strong revenue growth. Takes a bit of time for analysts to work up models, fund managers to be convinced etc, but once they are there is one way the stock is going - UP!

As a reminder I see 24c (40% growth) FY14 EPS with a 12c div (50% growth), and EPS growing 30% in FY15. All this on a super cheap stock on 7x PE. Stock could be $2.50+.

[psychic]

As always, great post Modandm, thanks

[Food4Thought]

Righto, have put my money where my mouth is and bought in based on a breakout in the charts and the buyback. $1.60 looks like the intraday high to beat. Hoping for $1.65 by end of week. Quite a change from PEB and XRO!

I like your guestimate Moosie_900. Top man. Along with the fact that... profit takers from other shares will want to put their money in a reputable, dividend paying, solid performing company, and some of this money must flow back into the likes of AIR, WHS, AIA and so on. It is excellent to know that AIR also has not yet started dishing out their cash, to buy back shares, which will also help to raise the bar for this share. $1.60 is still cheap. I am guessing it will approach $1.85 close to the new year. That is another 15% increase from current levels... and likely some good news in the near future

[Food4Thought]

Righto, have put my money where my mouth is and bought in based on a breakout in the charts and the buyback. $1.60 looks like the intraday high to beat. Hoping for $1.65 by end of week. Quite a change from PEB and XRO!

The Moose will be staging around some drinking hole this weekend, chuffed, chest out... not a bore of a week for AIR... Still think there is a wee way to go before enthusiasm for this stock kneels down.

I am still unsure why there has been hesitation in Share Buy back... it does not follow other years around Share Buy Back announcements... Now I wonder if they have done this strategically, once Meridian shares have been placed... low Meridian entry point, quick gain to be had... hey lets do our share buy back now (once Meridian is placed and trading)... Ohhh look, money from Meridian is coming into AIR... price increases... John Key...look at how successful AIR is... let's sell them at a discount of 10% on the open market... do a little dance all the way to the bank. Boy we out smarted them Mum and Dad investors with no market experience...

Any one else keen for a guestimate at the outlook for AIR and reasoning behind the Share Buy Back not having occurred yet... as I am looking for some reasoning here.

[noodles]

The Moose will be staging around some drinking hole this weekend, chuffed, chest out... not a bore of a week for AIR... Still think there is a wee way to go before enthusiasm for this stock kneels down.

I am still unsure why there has been hesitation in Share Buy back... it does not follow other years around Share Buy Back announcements... Now I wonder if they have done this strategically, once Meridian shares have been placed... low Meridian entry point, quick gain to be had... hey lets do our share buy back now (once Meridian is placed and trading)... Ohhh look, money from Meridian is coming into AIR... price increases... John Key...look at how successful AIR is... let's sell them at a discount of 10% on the open market... do a little dance all the way to the bank. Boy we out smarted them Mum and Dad investors with no market experience...

Any one else keen for a guestimate at the outlook for AIR and reasoning behind the Share Buy Back not having occurred yet... as I am looking for some reasoning here.

Why no share buyback? Management don't think it is cheap enough.

[Food4Thought]

Why no share buyback? Management don't think it is cheap enough.

Good consideration. Thanks Noodles. Then again, I think it is other reasons.

[Zaphod]

FYI: A couple of interesting NZ Herald interviews with Christopher Luxon.

Part one: The changes made thus far to the business by Christopher Luxon
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...lery_id=138658

Part two: Virgin shareholding, government sell-down and arrival of the Dreamliner....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...lery_id=138771

Worth a look if you have about 20 minutes spare.

[Food4Thought]

FYI: A couple of interesting NZ Herald interviews with Christopher Luxon.

Part one: The changes made thus far to the business by Christopher Luxon
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...lery_id=138658

Part two: Virgin shareholding, government sell-down and arrival of the Dreamliner....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...lery_id=138771

Worth a look if you have about 20 minutes spare.

Thanks Zaphod. Positive experience. Great economics to consider for AIR NZ. Moving forward with new technology, a good way to stay competitive and profitable. Another good sign AIR NZ management is on the ball.

[Zaphod]

Thanks Food4Thought & agreed. I've traditionally avoided owning Airline stock but their balance sheet and business acumen was too good to resist. Plus it's nice to receive some money back from my regular business.

[Zaphod]

An interesting commentary on the state of the battle for Virgin Australia. Grab a coffee and have a read....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...rgin-Australia