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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #12651
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Jet fuel approaching US$80 can’t be helping profits
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brend View Post
    If my facts are incorrect, let me know. When I read the article it said that maintenance on the engines would have to be done earlier than expected. It clearly means it’s a question of “when” or “if”. They knew the engines had a problem but surely not enough for safety issues...but it concerns me, feels like ignorance.

    it would be a big blow if this aircraft lost its 330 min Etops
    https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-n...e-etops-flight

    http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/d...%2010%20v9.pdf

    Links for those interested
    ANA who were an early adopters have 100 of these engines and experienced 3 engine failures last year, (3% failure rate). RR are claiming this issue can be managed through maintenance and claimed ANA experienced early failures were due to the number of shorter cycles on the engines. RR and AIR are supposed to have learned something from this YET AIR have just 18 of these engines used predominantly on longer flights and Captain David Morgan confirmed in the print article of the N.Z. Herald on Saturday they had been following RR's technical service bulletins stringently and yet they have had two engine failures (11.1% failure rate). Hmmmm.
    Last edited by Beagle; 12-12-2017 at 08:18 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    ANA who were an early adopters have 100 of these engines and experienced 3 engine failures last year, (3% failure rate). RR are claiming this issue can be managed through maintenance and claimed ANA experienced early failures were due to the number of shorter cycles on the engines. RR and AIR are supposed to have learned something from this YET AIR have just 18 of these engines used predominantly on longer flights and Captain David Morgan confirmed in the print article of the N.Z. Herald on Saturday they had been following RR's technical service bulletins stringently and yet they have had two engine failures (11.1% failure rate). Hmmmm.
    Thanks for all the info Beags but have already stripped AIR in Sept-Oct at great profit plus divs. to buy up large of HLG. So what's the next cab off the ramp....SCL, PPH or ATM again in January?

  4. #12654
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    You're most welcome mate. PPH being added to the NZX50 this Friday and for what its worth that's where I reinvested my AIR funds.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #12655
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Smile The Known Knowns and the Unknowns etc etc etc

    Just found my Air New Zealand Airpoints card snuggling in the back of a draw with his mates from Qantas & Virgin Oz!

    Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence (and thrice is enemy action!).

    Even given this Trent 1000 fault, known about for over a year, results in the odd engine occasionally and unexpectedly throwing a wobbly or worse a blade it still seems that AIR have been particularly unlucky having two engines go in two days.
    So they join the growing ranks of airlines that have some of their Dreamliners sitting around waiting for better engine bits.

    They reckon it is a 3 year program (so 2 to go ?) to fix all these dodgy engines, but where AIR are in the queue I know not.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    You're welcome mate. I'm not sure what to make of it either but I think its incredibly unfortunate that AIR experienced two incidents on consecutive days. The fact that Civil aviation are investigating gives you a clue that there may be more to this than meets the eye. Anyway...I have been told some information in confidence that I feel I can't post on the forum. I have sold the rest of my shares. Sorry folks but I have to respect that source. The risk of another event and the business risks of the existing events is not correctly reflected in the share price at this point in time in my opinion.
    Is it now legal to trade based on information not available to the market ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by freddagg View Post
    Is it now legal to trade based on information not available to the market ?
    Only if you are a dog it seems.
    The Beagle has swung from spruiking AIR no matter what to dropping it like a hot potatoe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    Only if you are a dog it seems.
    The Beagle has swung from spruiking AIR no matter what to dropping it like a hot potatoe.
    As the situation/information changes ,so should your investment decisions .

  9. #12659
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    Only if you are a dog it seems.
    The Beagle has swung from spruiking AIR no matter what to dropping it like a hot potatoe.
    I also decreased my holding in AIR over the past couple of weeks, but still have a very small holding. Bought THL and HLG as replacements and smiling all the way.

  10. #12660
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    Quote Originally Posted by freddagg View Post
    Is it now legal to trade based on information not available to the market ?
    It has been for quite some time, its all a question of materiality. For example Summerset restricted persons can still trade shares right up to half way through the final month in a quarter even though they have a pretty good idea how the sales will go for that quarter to be released to the stock exchange in the first week or so of the following quarter. The rules are not as black and white as some investors would like to think. FYI I formed my own opinion on the seriousness of the engine issue from a variety of sources and posted that more or less in real time as I was selling. The additional information is from a poster on here and may or may not be reliable and is unsubstantiated. I believe he knows what he's talking about but doesn't want to go on record with it and neither do I. I have invested a lot of time sharing my thoughts on this company over the years and have posted all known information from verifiable sources as quickly as I can. You can't ask more than that from anyone on here. Good luck to holders and I look forward to being a shareholder again when this issue has been de-risked.
    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...r-nz-fallshtml

    P.S.My take on the monthly operating stat's. YTD RASK excl FX is up 2.6%.
    Last month YTD RASK was up 2.8% which was a nice increase from the month before that at 2.1%.
    If I was a holder I would like to have seen ongoing improvement in the YTD RASK to somewhere 3% plus as you'd really want to see this against a backdrop of especially low yields this time last year when ten new entrants were badly affecting yields with their uneconomic opening specials and the much higher prevailing fuel prices this year. I think given this the YTD RASK improvement latest data is a little lower than I would like it to be and clearly the market seems a little underwhelmed today. Sure they have good forward cover on the exchange rate and oil prices for the rest of this year but we're almost half way through the year now and yields haven't materially recovered from the fiercely completive level's prevailing this time last year. That sad the monthly operating stat's are not too bad and I would have remained a holder were it not for other (in my view), more pertinent issues.
    Last edited by Beagle; 13-12-2017 at 05:39 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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