AIR - Air NZ.

[BlackPeter]

Doesn't AIR pretty much run international flights at break even and they make all their profits from their domestic operation anyway? I am pretty sure AIR will be in good stead to survive this coronavirus thing. The impact and disruption will be offset by lower fuel costs.

Question is how much the domestic operations are impacted. Less international flights mean as well less connecting domestic flights, it means less tourists who might otherwise move domestically up and down the country - and I suspect even beagle (who referred to the Holden) is not alone in avoiding any flights.

We choose to stop 10% of our international tourists at the border - and the Chinese did a lot of flying ....

[blackcap]

Question is how much the domestic operations are impacted. Less international flights mean as well less connecting domestic flights, it means less tourists who might otherwise move domestically up and down the country - and I suspect even beagle (who referred to the Holden) is not alone in avoiding any flights.

We choose to stop 10% of our international tourists at the border - and the Chinese did a lot of flying ....

Very well put. Yes I forgot about the tourists that may fly locally. I purchased a return trip to Auckland from Wellington for next Thursday. Cost me $568 so I am sure AIR are still doing very well. Yes less flights will mean more disruptions. But when valuing companies and using a 10 year DCF model, an aberration of half a year is not really that material. So AIR may decline in the short term but I suspect that the market has already priced in some future disturbance.

[bull....]

Very well put. Yes I forgot about the tourists that may fly locally. I purchased a return trip to Auckland from Wellington for next Thursday. Cost me $568 so I am sure AIR are still doing very well. Yes less flights will mean more disruptions. But when valuing companies and using a 10 year DCF model, an aberration of half a year is not really that material. So AIR may decline in the short term but I suspect that the market has already priced in some future disturbance.

as long as the virus doesnt become a pandemic and more wide spread

[Beagle]

Its just beginning. QAN's outlook was on the assumption of just a 3.8% capacity reduction.

[blackcap]

Its just beginning. QAN's outlook was on the assumption of just a 3.8% capacity reduction.

So it's fair to assume you are short Air at these prices?

[Beagle]

So it's fair to assume you are short Air at these prices?

I would like to be short as this is a stand out candidate in my opinion. I haven't shorted up until this point.

[percy]

I would like to be short as this is a stand out candidate in my opinion. I haven't shorted up until this point.

CMO may be more profitable.?....lol.

[percy]

I would like to be short as this is a stand out candidate in my opinion. I haven't shorted up until this point.

CMO may be more profitable.?....lol.

[Beagle]

CMO may be more profitable.?....lol.

lol - Yeah, there's a few companies I wouldn't mind shorting including that one. I'm looking for the right service provider and platform at present.

[dreamcatcher]

18th Feb - CHINA URGES NZ TO LIFT TRAVEL BAN Chinese student bags packed ready to go.............

According to Wu, the number of confirmed cases has been dropping for a consecutive 13 days outside Hubei province and the number of recovered patients has increased rapidly. More than 10,000 patients have been cured and discharged from hospital, she said.

New Zealand, however, followed countries such as the US, Australia and Japan in restricting entry by foreign nationals arriving from mainland China for 14 days. Over the weekend, Health Minister David Clark extended the ban for a further eight days and said that would be reviewed every 48 hours.

Wu said the bans have already had an impact on bilateral cooperation, with 40 per cent of Chinese students who study in New Zealand now stuck in China.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12309559