AIR - Air NZ.

[Marilyn Munroe]

ABC Australia headline;

"Airlines could shed 95 per cent of their workforce......"

I expect a similar decimation of airline jobs this side of the ditch.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...ction=business

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

...Cyclical stocks have a grow/shrink growth cycle they can shrink very fast during bad times but need time to regrow and history shows the economic early recovery phase is not a great time for cyclical company's share prices (e.g AIR during the long post GFC economic recovery stage [2010-2012])...Vaccine or no vaccine it bums on seats that counts and when the effects of the recession start to bite many of the bums may feel healthier but a lot poorer and postpone their travel plans...again lots of variables in play creating many alternate scenario's..

One big positive is..if these cyclical stocks (AIR being one) manage to survive and bottom out during the late recession/early recovery phase, the economic late recovery phase they became excellent stocks for the investors with "steel balls" to "back up the truck" and buy into...

Great post Hoop and thank you for that very salient reminder. As you astutely remind us the post GFC recovery phase for AIR was excruciatingly slow and this is very likely to repeat when a safe and effective vaccine is widely available. Timing regarding backing up the truck is extremely important with cyclical's.

Something I think all intelligent people knew already. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ses-discovered Despite all the public relations talk of assurances that flying is safe due to hospital grade air filtration, that's of absolutely no help whatsoever if someone seated close to you on the plane has Covid.

[Beagle]

Good move, there has been no documented spread of COVID onboard an aircraft in NZ and very few around the world.

One thing we have learnt in this pandemic is ventilation and length of exposure are key factors, airplanes completely cycle the air in the cabin every 4 mins. The masks and phased boarding/deplaning offer added layers of protection.

Unfair for the airlines to always bare the financial cost for everyone. As RTM says if you are still not convinced, buy two seats.

There has been now. Excerp from today's ministry of health statement. (Confirmation the three infected passengers were sitting close to the Covid infected person).
"Also on the flight was the man who tested positive for Covid-19 at the weekend whose virus is thought to have had a rare three-week incubation period.
The latest cases were seated near the infected man". Source https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12367569

One would presume seeing that this charter flight happened very recently everyone on that plane was wearing a mask so it would appear masks are not much help either.

[winner69]

There has been now. Excerp from today's ministry of health statement. (Confirmation the three infected passengers were sitting close to the Covid infected person).
"Also on the flight was the man who tested positive for Covid-19 at the weekend whose virus is thought to have had a rare three-week incubation period.
The latest cases were seated near the infected man". Source https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12367569

One would presume seeing that this charter flight happened very recently everyone on that plane was wearing a mask so it would appear masks are not much help either.

Bit of a worry eh beagle

And then the big gathering at Taupo with people from around the country

Wonder what the parachute guy is thinking?

[Beagle]

Bit of a worry eh beagle

And then the big gathering at Taupo with people from around the country

Wonder what the parachute guy is thinking?

I imagine he would be suffering from very severe anxiety. Was actually thinking of driving down to Taupo...thought if I took my car it would be a nice safe place for a little mini break. Hmmm.

Anyway it appears the charm offensive has commenced. I'm expecting many press releases about how well they're coping during Covid before the capital raise
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12367425

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...September+2020

Oh my goodness...the world is ending if the relationship between the All Blacks and AIR breaks down...whatever are we to do ?

[Waltzing]

AIR cap raise broadcast globally. 2021 time frame.

[Beagle]

AIR cap raise broadcast globally. 2021 time frame.

They know it must be done by June 2021 as the loan will be almost exhausted by then and the auditors will not be able to sign off FY21's books as a going concern if there's no capital raise.

[Jaa]

Much no doubt to your disappointment Beagle, seems Air NZ is in no hurry to raise capital. Longer they leave it, the more certainty for all concerned.

Of the $75m a month cash burn roughly only a third is operational with a third capital expenditure and another third various one off restructuring costs (fuel hedges, FX hedges, redundancies etc). The third part will naturally reduce over time and I am sure they will find ways to reduce the other two components too.

[Beagle]

They better hurry before it becomes obvious that on top of the cash burn is another ~ $60m a month in depreciation as well as a prospect of another few hundred million to be written down on the 777-300's. Better conceal that till next year books after the capital raise eh Jaa

Good they announced their intentions clearly so that you and your sharsies mates can save your pennies up for the issue and can't say you were ambushed. Save up hard mate, I am sure it will be an "outstanding" investment opportunity