AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Probably more than 10 million people travelled in planes yesterday ....wonder how many caught that covid-19 virus?

Suppose quite a few did pick up a few other things going around.

[Beagle]

It is going to happen in a hurry. I often see travel demand better indicated by using booking sites for accommodation as a proxy. The booking sites algorithm results in deep discounts when heavy cancelations occur and capacity increases suddenly. Seeing deep discount for Queenstown in April/May and even as far out as second half of the year for european cities. A lot of people backing out of their travel plans. Anyone want to pay around a third of the normal nightly rate in London?

Very good insight mate, thanks.

[Cadalac123]

Please keep selling this stock so I can pick this up sub 2$

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...043/317643.pdf Cut through all the talk and go straight to page 9 which shows how the interim profit has tracked down, down, down year on year for the last 5 years and then think about the outlook.

Like you Winner I am surprised they are paying out more in dividends than they earned, especially in the very much heightened risk environment. I'll leave it to others to judge whether this is bold or reckless. I'm not planning to do much analysis on this result as it should be crystal clear the outlook is "extremly challenging"

I have thought long and hard about the steadily declining profit graphic depicted on page 9 in the above link showing profit going down year on year for the last 5 years. What a sad state of affairs. With the current outlook I see no reason at present to pay anything over the current NTA of the airline which is currently $1.63 but will shortly be $1.52 after they pay out the 11 cent dividend, (which based on my historical detailed review of previous financial statements is never accrued in the financials'). I don't think $2 is the bargain it might appear to be and my assessment is based on the fact that we have a worldwide pandemic even if the world health organisation don't want to admit it (because they say doing so would cause panic).

In a worse case scenario this could potential trade at a substantial discount to NTA. Not possible you say ? Just wait and see.
Disc : Short.

[Raz]

Yes, hard to argue a floor...

[winner69]

I have thought long and hard about the steadily declining profit graphic depicted on page 9 in the above link showing profit going down year on year for the last 5 years. What a sad state of affairs. With the current outlook I see no reason at present to pay anything over the current NTA of the airline which is currently $1.63 but will shortly be $1.52 after they pay out the 11 cent dividend, (which based on my historical detailed review of previous financial statements is never accrued in the financials'). I don't think $2 is the bargain it might appear to be and my assessment is based on the fact that we have a worldwide pandemic even if the world health organisation don't want to admit it (because they say doing so would cause panic).

In a worse case scenario this could potential trade at a substantial discount to NTA.

If they had included pre2015 it would look bit cyclical eh beagle.

Luxon was lucky in 2014 and it was down hill from there

[BlackPeter]

If they had included pre2015 it would look bit cyclical eh beagle.

Luxon was lucky in 2014 and it was down hill from there

Luxons timing was certainly impeccable. It takes typically five years for markets to realize that they are fooled (maybe the main reason for these 5 year CEO contracts). He used this time to its fullest extent.

Just wondering whether we just found another thing he has in common with Sir John ?

[Beagle]

Desperation specials on the Tasman, just check the return price to make sure the return journey isn't priced normally. https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/
Edit its not. Return to Melbourne for as little as $205 including all N.Z. and Australian taxes which would probably make up the vast majority of the price.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/coro...ir-travel.html

[IAK]

Air New Zealand floats leave without pay, slashes Aussie fares. Poor old Foran only be in the job a few weeks. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12312668

[Beagle]

Yeap, this is on a scale like nothing they have seen before. I predict demand will simply fall off the edge of a cliff. Some of the longest serving senior flight crew on $400,000+ are probably skating on pretty thin ice...I think the changes Foran will have to make are going to be unprecedented and extremely ruthless and if the unions don't like it then perhaps they should consider the greater good, if dramatic changes are not made...

This excerpt is pretty telling "Chief revenue officer Cam Wallace said thousands of transtasman cut-price fares were released to stimulate the important market where the airline had aircraft needing to be filled. ''We have available aircraft and crew to fly them so we've got to keep going,'' he said. Emphasis added.