AIR - Air NZ.

[Arbroath]

Airlines not for everyone I agree but analysts don't see it the way you do and neither do I, (see earnings growth estimates for FY20 and FY21 coming off a cyclical low in FY19 base this year) https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...07/financials/
Management extremely confident about their ability to pay the current level of 22 cps annual dividends going forward. 12% gross yield so dividends hounds will probably stop reading right here, that's all they need to know. They proudly noted during the call that AIR had only cut dividends twice in the last 15 years. Once for the GFC and the other for the Chch earthquakes.

I'm confident they'll maintain the 22cps because the operating CF is so strong. Don't forget that 2020-2022 they will likely have huge surplus cash flow as fleet replacement almost stops for 2 years before they have to deal with the 777-200's I think around late 2022/2023 (they said they'd tell us Q4 this year what their plans are). Unless things go very badly my hunch is 22cps ordinary for the next 3-4 years is more likely than not. Might even be a special or two in 2021-22 depending on industry conditions.

[dreamcatcher]

GS ...........latest Price Target $2.85 approx 15% (SP$2.49) upside maybe a dividend and appreciation hounds dream

[bull....]

lower bollinger in sharp decent now on the hourlies . suggests more downside to come

[workingdad]

no dividend will make up for the loss in equity on a falling SP, wont be knife catching this one and given how low the SP went when the outlook was a lot better on the last dip in the roller coaster who knows where this one will end up

[Beagle]

I'm confident they'll maintain the 22cps because the operating CF is so strong. Don't forget that 2020-2022 they will likely have huge surplus cash flow as fleet replacement almost stops for 2 years before they have to deal with the 777-200's I think around late 2022/2023 (they said they'd tell us Q4 this year what their plans are). Unless things go very badly my hunch is 22cps ordinary for the next 3-4 years is more likely than not. Might even be a special or two in 2021-22 depending on industry conditions.

GS ...........latest Price Target $2.85 approx 15% (SP$2.49) upside maybe a dividend and appreciation hounds dream

You two are on too it.

Bit much coming from Luxon's Pet Poodle

So profit down and declining share price but pays a good dividend - much like TRA.

So applying the Beagle formula in it's generous PE * 8.5 that would value AIR at
$0.24 * 8.5 =
$2.04.

Luckily I did not use his PE * 7.5 version.

But seriously folks, OK result but I will wait for the $2.04 before buying.

Nothing like TRA and good luck with your $2.04. Your post is all the explanation anyone needs as to why Snow Leopards are an endangered species

[winner69]

@stevebiddle via Twitter
I just went to book flights to Queenstown on Monday and was (mildly) shocked by Air New Zealand's $389 o/w fare from Wellington. I was totally shocked when I found Jetstar want $520 to get there o/w. Who says they're always cheaper?

[Baa_Baa]

@stevebiddle via Twitter
I just went to book flights to Queenstown on Monday and was (mildly) shocked by Air New Zealand's $389 o/w fare from Wellington. I was totally shocked when I found Jetstar want $520 to get there o/w. Who says they're always cheaper?

The gouging by both airlines on the tourism routes is ... think of a word that makes you puke money. Disgraceful, but I guess they still fill those aircraft because demand is met by supply, however expensive it is. Pity the poor Kiwi aunty who wants to visit her nieces and has no tourist interests. Cheaper to take a few days off and drive there, even including a Ferry if they're from Te Ika a Maui.

[value_investor]

A very interesting result indeed, I really like page 6 of the interim report. Wish more companies did this because it really tells you pretty much all you need to know. More passenger revenue, but more expensive fuel would be a good way at a elementary level to explain this.

Its the life of an airline investor, AIR can do anything and everything but some things are out their control. The cash flow shows that net operations are holding steady which is a good sign, also that the cash position is holding strong despite the dividend.

The forward bookings situation is a interesting gauge of just the future economically and it doesn't paint the best picture for tourism. I'll continue to hold and keep that juicy dividend, may add more if this keeps trending down. Best buy at maximum pessimism.

[Beagle]

"Best buy at maximum pessimism" Yeap, analysts think the numbers are a bit soft https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12208298
Hopefully negativity abounds and it gets thumped down to $2.00 (15% gross dividend level) so I can do a Couta1, back up the truck and enjoy gargantuan dividends for many years to come. Bring it on.

[Snow Leopard]

I am fairly confident that slide 3 of the HY presentation is wrong:

NotLuxon.jpg

No way is that Christopher Luxon.