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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #15391
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Probably another $10 per passenger in landing fees and more for airways fees...basically flying for nothing. I also saw $249 return to Sydney and last time I looked years ago fees out of Sydney were over $90, probably well over $100 now.
    Yes a few good discounts today including a number of deals via email, major discounts if you commit to non refundable flights and if you commit to a number of flights for the year from my usual carriers. Their emails reflect my previous flying profile so looking at their regular flyers. Think they are alarmed that people like me have held off on all travel. Still nothing special yet from holden

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    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    Yes a few good discounts today including a number of deals via email, major discounts if you commit to non refundable flights and if you commit to a number of flights for the year from my usual carriers. Their emails reflect my previous flying profile so looking at their regular flyers. Think they are alarmed that people like me have held off on all travel. Still nothing special yet from holden
    Sold my shares and not booking our round the world trip until we know what is happening with corona virus.Its not the virus I fear but the delays and possible quarantine overseas .I would be happy to quarantine myself in nz on return however

  3. #15393
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    The grabaseat deals probably shows a bunch of seats that AIR would rather just breakeven on than go empty. Its quite unsettling to have empty seats on your most popular routes such as domestically or Australia in March. I know a few people been apprehensive of travelling to anywhere in Asia right now.

    This is a good time for AIR to hedge long on the jetfuel prices. I still really like the long term prospects of the company still, and would accumulate more at sub $2.50 prices.

  4. #15394
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    Quote Originally Posted by value_investor View Post
    The grabaseat deals probably shows a bunch of seats that AIR would rather just breakeven on than go empty. Its quite unsettling to have empty seats on your most popular routes such as domestically or Australia in March. I know a few people been apprehensive of travelling to anywhere in Asia right now.

    This is a good time for AIR to hedge long on the jetfuel prices. I still really like the long term prospects of the company still, and would accumulate more at sub $2.50 prices.
    Sounds like you suggesting they should be in boots and all .....wouldn’t that approach just be gambling and something companies shouldn’t do?
    Last edited by winner69; 23-02-2020 at 08:09 AM.
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  5. #15395
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    Very good chance this goes under $2 sometime in my opinion, potentially even much lower even than that but I won't try and bottom pick because the bottom will be impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy and will be determined by the severity of the fallout from this virus. My approach if anyone is interested is as follows.
    1. Completely forget about fundamental analysis with AIR at present. Reason. Its impossible to predict what earnings will be going forward as this is totally reliant on the virus not scaring people enough so that en-masse they won't choose to defer or cancel discretionary or business travel.
    2. Sticking with technical analysis its clear that AIR broke down through the 100 day moving average recently at $2.85. This is my usual preferred signal to get out of a cyclical company but as I was very sure the 100 day MA breech was coming I got out much earlier at $2.98.
    3. To de-risk this, (potentially extremely serious virus risk), thoroughly, I will wait until it breaks back up through the 100 day moving average line, no matter how long it takes to do this. It is possible this may not happen for quite a protracted period of time and I am fine with that.
    Last edited by Beagle; 23-02-2020 at 10:57 AM.
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  6. #15396
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    Well... finally AIR admitted that there will be an impact with this corona virus....good luck to those that bought in last couple weeks...

  7. #15397
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    impact of corona virus not to bad 55 mil approx and could be of a short term nature. mitigated by lower fuel bill and capacity cuts to routes. Of course its still a moving situation. dividend shouldnt change

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348842
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  8. #15398
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    So virus impact $75m and counting ...and that’s assuming a significantly lower fuel cost (just as well for that)

    Operating earnings now guessed at $275m ....and going down fast

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...842/317306.pdf
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  9. #15399
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    Flight Centre says its sales to Asia are down 5 per cent following the coronavirus outbreak, with its travel suppliers offering special sale airfares to other parts of the world.
    The travel agent said its airfares to China were down 75 per cent, as it had expected following the advent of Covid-19,but the outbreak had had only minimal effect on bookings to the region

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12310065

    So if you look at air and what flight centre are saying. air nz impact to date is really all about china travel mostly in there downgrade. so the strategy is to buy air for the rebound in china travel ? if you think its a short term issue
    one step ahead of the herd

  10. #15400
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    Too early bull....that would be a suicide

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