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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #15321
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Yes, a sobering bit of news from Vietnam Air. Note, however, that China accounts for a third of Vietnam's tourists.
    Just for comparison: China accounts for roughly 10% of all New Zealand tourists. Sure, lesser exposure than Vietnam, but still quite material.
    ----
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  2. #15322
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Yes, a sobering bit of news from Vietnam Air. Note, however, that China accounts for a third of Vietnam's tourists.
    Very sobering at this very early stage and it isn't just Chinese by any means that can't or don't want to be travelling. Discretionary long haul travel is on indefinite hold for everyone I personally know. There are those that have to travel long haul regularly for work though, like Iceman and I hope he's okay.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-02-2020 at 04:00 PM.
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  3. #15323
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Most people I know who work for AIR rated Chris Luxon very well and are sad he's gone. Greg Foran with his background is going to be ruthless in cutting costs and will need to be. I am sick and tired of other companies pandering and encouraging all things LGTBQ so good on him for cancelling the pink flights.

    Couple of reports out overnight I have seen suggest air travel within the Asia Pacific region previously forecast to grow at 4.5% in 2020 could contract by as much as 8% this year and that's just based on known information about the virus at this time.

    If this becomes a worldwide pandemic, look out, demand for air travel will fall off the face of a cliff like nothing anyone has ever seen before. You will see what cost cutting really feels like then...for example Cathay Pacific have asked many of their workers to take unpaid leave until June, (which could easily be restated to a later month). Good luck to those that don't have a decent nest egg for a rainy day.

    Foran will do whatever needs to be done to ensure the survival of the airline and you'll probably look back and think Chris Luxon was a kind caring person after all...that's my prediction. AIR is a clear SELL in my view with known risks. Fair value is where the shares are now, (before there was any virus risk at all) and nothing whatsoever has come off to account for known virus risks...I leave it to others to judge whether that's logical or not.
    Been there seen it all before... You tend to when you have been in this industry as long as alot of us have!
    We were within a few hours of closing the door for good with the Ansett disaster.. Not knowing if we should take our personal equipment home with us each night in case the gates were locked the next day..you tend to grow to be quite resilient in this industry.
    Would I buy AIR... Nope... Carona Virus, the787's drama and the like is enough to convince me to look elsewhere..can't quite fathom why the share price is still where it is. Good for holders though and I wish you all the best..
    As for Luxon everyone has their own opinions and always will...
    I'll keep mine to myself...
    And Beagle I can assure you that there has been plenty of pandering to certain groups of the employee community.

  4. #15324
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny1 View Post
    ... there has been plenty of pandering to certain groups of the employee community...
    Interesting word "pander" :

    pander
    1.
    v yield (to); give satisfaction to
    2.
    vn arrange for sexual partners for others
    Yeeks! just what has been going on at AIR?

  5. #15325
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
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    They're always going to need highly skilled people like you that fix things Benny so you'll be okay.
    Best wishes.
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  6. #15326
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    Interesting word "pander" :

    pander
    1.
    v yield (to); give satisfaction to
    2.
    vn arrange for sexual partners for others
    Yeeks! just what has been going on at AIR?
    Well you got to add abit of spice to work day don't you!!! Haha

  7. #15327
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny1 View Post
    Well you got to add abit of spice to work day don't you!!! Haha
    lol, sounds like a great place to work! Hope that up-tight Luxton dude didn't spoil it!

  8. #15328
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Good luck mate. This news out yesterday (one of the first bits of news out of the aviation industry that endeavours to quantify the impact of this virus), gives an interesting insight into how difficult this storm might be to navigate. https://ph.news.yahoo.com/vietnam-ai...054307063.html

    I am sure AIR will update shareholders how their forward bookings are looking with their half year result due later this month and I expect that they will clearly articulate a serious decline in people's forward intentions arounds bookings. I expect a downgrade to 2020 guidance later this month with the half year result and at least one more, probably two more downgrades before June 2020. Shareholders might also like to brace for a dividend cut as it would appear to be prudent to conserve cash at this time.

    I wouldn't presently even pay $2.50 per share. I don't want to be a prophet of doom because I like the company but the fact is AIR is directly in the path of this approaching storm and there's nowhere to hide. Depending on the severity of its effects it could get extremely ugly.
    Just a little snippet. My wife yesterday had to change dates on a flight with AIR to London via LA at the beginning of March. The call centre person told us the cehapest option would be to go through HK as "we have had hundreds of cancellations on that route".
    Needless to say my wife will go through LA !

  9. #15329
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    Just before it all kicked off, we bought tickets for a holiday to the UK. To via LA and back via HK. Will be watching this one with interest.

  10. #15330
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Just a little snippet. My wife yesterday had to change dates on a flight with AIR to London via LA at the beginning of March. The call centre person told us the cehapest option would be to go through HK as "we have had hundreds of cancellations on that route".
    Needless to say my wife will go through LA !
    Interesting information, though probably predictable.

    From personal experience - it is quite easy to catch a flu or bad cold on these long distance flights ... probably every second time I go to Europe I end up with one of these - caught in flight on one of these legs. So far however I survived them all ;

    But anyway - I would think that in these hyped up days the risk to catch a bug on the plane might be lower than normal ... everybody will be alert and highly unlikely that they allow particularly in SE Asia anybody with symptoms (no matter which flu or cold) close to the airport ...

    Personally - I would have taken the HK connection - it is nicer (and less risk to catch whatever bug) if you
    fly in less filled planes and go through well organised airports with friendly staff. North American airports are inefficient, always full with arrogant security staff, bull dogs and a bunch of bureaucrats who clearly enjoy to exercise the nearly unlimited power they have over incoming passengers. Not sure whether queuing up in front of US immigration with lots of other people (some of them might be sick) for often one to two hours really reduces the bug spread.

    Anyway - all the best and safe travels to your wife ...

    We plan to go August / September and I am sure I won't take the route through the US ..
    ----
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  11. #15331
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Interesting

    But anyway - I would think that in these hyped up days the risk to catch a bug on the plane might be lower than normal ... everybody will be alert and highly unlikely that they allow particularly in SE Asia anybody with symptoms (no matter which flu or cold) close to the airport ...

    Personally - I would have taken the HK connection - it is nicer (and less risk to catch whatever bug) if you
    fly in less filled planes and go through well organised airports with friendly staff...
    With the coronavirus around flying on airplanes is a huge no no...
    Just a few days ago 21 studies confirmed that this virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces... you touch it and dont wash your hands before you rub your face and eyes and you have it...
    Planes are never cleaned efficiently.. maybe this might change with coronavirus i doubt it... the aircon is the worst... the ducts never get cleaned ever id think... which is a breeding ground for moulds and fungus...those little knobs you turn to direct air ive heard are bad bad bad.... but i cant find much info on it and cant remember how i heard about it....
    You dont even have to be within 3 feet to catch the virus... from how contageous the virus is id say that if one person on the entire flight has it then by the end every person has it...
    I would not be flying anywhere and at least seeing how the weeks unfold... I am to believe the numbers infected are significantly higher than reported... and some studies have predicted that even as early as late this month that hundreds of millions of people could become infected...

    .^sc

  12. #15332
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    The resilience of some of the corona linked companies like AIR I find surprising. This would have to be $2.00 come March.

  13. #15333
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    The resilience of some of the corona linked companies like AIR I find surprising. This would have to be $2.00 come March.
    I've been thinking the same and see this under $2 soon.
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  14. #15334
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shrewd Crude View Post
    With the coronavirus around flying on airplanes is a huge no no...
    ed are significantly higher than reported... and some studies have predicted that even as early as late this month that hundreds of millions of people could become infected...

    .^sc
    Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !

  15. #15335
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    A lot of people don't understand that airlines are a very low margin business wither very high fixed overheads and very high staff costs, (plus in AIR's case a vast number of troughers getting paid far too much). If average load factors drop from the current 83-84% down even to 70% it is likely in my opinion that AIR will be losing money.

    If the effects are sustained beyond say 6-8 months there's going to have to be some restructuring in AIR. My assessment is fair value for AIR BEFORE this virus risk was $2.75.
    If they start losing money I would think its quite likely we'll see the shares retrench down towards NTA of $1.69.

    I almost feel sorry for Greg Foran. With no airline experience he couldn't have chosen a more challenging time to take over the reigns at AIR. Talk about a baptism of fire

    I agree with Balance, the tourism sector is a very good one to avoid for the foreseeable future. THL also a SELL in my opinion.
    Beagle I’d say a reduced capacity to 75% would be pretty disasterous .

    That’s about 2 million less passengers ...on a mainly fixed cost base
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  16. #15336
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !
    Not the case for most though. We have postponed contracts overseas so the team don't get caught up in this. A lot of business travel will be on hold until this is understood. Haven't held AIR for a while, the wind went out of its sails long ago.

  17. #15337
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Beagle I’d say a reduced capacity to 75% would be pretty disasterous .

    That’s about 2 million less passengers ...on a mainly fixed cost base
    You're probably dead right. Passenger revenue last year was $4,960m. Very quick look would suggest an 8% reduction in load factor would suck about $400m off the top line. Then there's the retrenchment of various routes, Hong Kong and Singapore next ?. The effect on revenue would also be serious in regard to route suspensions.
    Then there's the effect on yield, super special offers to keep people flying ? and effect on cargo volumes and pricing.
    One would hope that Greg Foran would be quick and nimble enough to manage his way through this but a complete newbie to the airline industry at a time when there could be unprecedented disruption is not a good coincidence.

    I think the potential for this to be a VERY VERY serious matter for AIR to cope with is crystal clear.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  18. #15338
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !
    If this thing really "blows up" maybe it is time for a change ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  19. #15339
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I've been thinking the same and see this under $2 soon.
    asian cruise ship industry virtually halted , so asian flying will be similar so what is the % of air asian business worth and your have idea of immediate impact to bottom line
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  20. #15340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    You're probably dead right. Passenger revenue last year was $4,960m. Very quick look would suggest an 8% reduction in load factor would suck about $400m off the top line. Then there's the retrenchment of various routes, Hong Kong and Singapore next ?. The effect on revenue would also be serious in regard to route suspensions.
    Then there's the effect on yield, super special offers to keep people flying ? and effect on cargo volumes and pricing.
    One would hope that Greg Foran would be quick and nimble enough to manage his way through this but a complete newbie to the airline industry at a time when there could be unprecedented disruption is not a good coincidence.

    I think the potential for this to be a VERY VERY serious matter for AIR to cope with is crystal clear.
    Suppose they will keep most of the $1.4 billion prepaid fares whether punters fly or not. That could help
    Last edited by winner69; 16-02-2020 at 01:28 PM.
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