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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #15331
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    Just before it all kicked off, we bought tickets for a holiday to the UK. To via LA and back via HK. Will be watching this one with interest.

  2. #15332
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Just a little snippet. My wife yesterday had to change dates on a flight with AIR to London via LA at the beginning of March. The call centre person told us the cehapest option would be to go through HK as "we have had hundreds of cancellations on that route".
    Needless to say my wife will go through LA !
    Interesting information, though probably predictable.

    From personal experience - it is quite easy to catch a flu or bad cold on these long distance flights ... probably every second time I go to Europe I end up with one of these - caught in flight on one of these legs. So far however I survived them all ;

    But anyway - I would think that in these hyped up days the risk to catch a bug on the plane might be lower than normal ... everybody will be alert and highly unlikely that they allow particularly in SE Asia anybody with symptoms (no matter which flu or cold) close to the airport ...

    Personally - I would have taken the HK connection - it is nicer (and less risk to catch whatever bug) if you
    fly in less filled planes and go through well organised airports with friendly staff. North American airports are inefficient, always full with arrogant security staff, bull dogs and a bunch of bureaucrats who clearly enjoy to exercise the nearly unlimited power they have over incoming passengers. Not sure whether queuing up in front of US immigration with lots of other people (some of them might be sick) for often one to two hours really reduces the bug spread.

    Anyway - all the best and safe travels to your wife ...

    We plan to go August / September and I am sure I won't take the route through the US ..
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  3. #15333
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Interesting

    But anyway - I would think that in these hyped up days the risk to catch a bug on the plane might be lower than normal ... everybody will be alert and highly unlikely that they allow particularly in SE Asia anybody with symptoms (no matter which flu or cold) close to the airport ...

    Personally - I would have taken the HK connection - it is nicer (and less risk to catch whatever bug) if you
    fly in less filled planes and go through well organised airports with friendly staff...
    With the coronavirus around flying on airplanes is a huge no no...
    Just a few days ago 21 studies confirmed that this virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces... you touch it and dont wash your hands before you rub your face and eyes and you have it...
    Planes are never cleaned efficiently.. maybe this might change with coronavirus i doubt it... the aircon is the worst... the ducts never get cleaned ever id think... which is a breeding ground for moulds and fungus...those little knobs you turn to direct air ive heard are bad bad bad.... but i cant find much info on it and cant remember how i heard about it....
    You dont even have to be within 3 feet to catch the virus... from how contageous the virus is id say that if one person on the entire flight has it then by the end every person has it...
    I would not be flying anywhere and at least seeing how the weeks unfold... I am to believe the numbers infected are significantly higher than reported... and some studies have predicted that even as early as late this month that hundreds of millions of people could become infected...

    .^sc
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  4. #15334
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    The resilience of some of the corona linked companies like AIR I find surprising. This would have to be $2.00 come March.

  5. #15335
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    The resilience of some of the corona linked companies like AIR I find surprising. This would have to be $2.00 come March.
    I've been thinking the same and see this under $2 soon.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #15336
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shrewd Crude View Post
    With the coronavirus around flying on airplanes is a huge no no...
    ed are significantly higher than reported... and some studies have predicted that even as early as late this month that hundreds of millions of people could become infected...

    .^sc
    Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !

  7. #15337
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    A lot of people don't understand that airlines are a very low margin business wither very high fixed overheads and very high staff costs, (plus in AIR's case a vast number of troughers getting paid far too much). If average load factors drop from the current 83-84% down even to 70% it is likely in my opinion that AIR will be losing money.

    If the effects are sustained beyond say 6-8 months there's going to have to be some restructuring in AIR. My assessment is fair value for AIR BEFORE this virus risk was $2.75.
    If they start losing money I would think its quite likely we'll see the shares retrench down towards NTA of $1.69.

    I almost feel sorry for Greg Foran. With no airline experience he couldn't have chosen a more challenging time to take over the reigns at AIR. Talk about a baptism of fire

    I agree with Balance, the tourism sector is a very good one to avoid for the foreseeable future. THL also a SELL in my opinion.
    Beagle I’d say a reduced capacity to 75% would be pretty disasterous .

    That’s about 2 million less passengers ...on a mainly fixed cost base
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  8. #15338
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !
    Not the case for most though. We have postponed contracts overseas so the team don't get caught up in this. A lot of business travel will be on hold until this is understood. Haven't held AIR for a while, the wind went out of its sails long ago.

  9. #15339
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Beagle I’d say a reduced capacity to 75% would be pretty disasterous .

    That’s about 2 million less passengers ...on a mainly fixed cost base
    You're probably dead right. Passenger revenue last year was $4,960m. Very quick look would suggest an 8% reduction in load factor would suck about $400m off the top line. Then there's the retrenchment of various routes, Hong Kong and Singapore next ?. The effect on revenue would also be serious in regard to route suspensions.
    Then there's the effect on yield, super special offers to keep people flying ? and effect on cargo volumes and pricing.
    One would hope that Greg Foran would be quick and nimble enough to manage his way through this but a complete newbie to the airline industry at a time when there could be unprecedented disruption is not a good coincidence.

    I think the potential for this to be a VERY VERY serious matter for AIR to cope with is crystal clear.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #15340
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !
    If this thing really "blows up" maybe it is time for a change ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #15341
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I've been thinking the same and see this under $2 soon.
    asian cruise ship industry virtually halted , so asian flying will be similar so what is the % of air asian business worth and your have idea of immediate impact to bottom line
    bull

  12. #15342
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    You're probably dead right. Passenger revenue last year was $4,960m. Very quick look would suggest an 8% reduction in load factor would suck about $400m off the top line. Then there's the retrenchment of various routes, Hong Kong and Singapore next ?. The effect on revenue would also be serious in regard to route suspensions.
    Then there's the effect on yield, super special offers to keep people flying ? and effect on cargo volumes and pricing.
    One would hope that Greg Foran would be quick and nimble enough to manage his way through this but a complete newbie to the airline industry at a time when there could be unprecedented disruption is not a good coincidence.

    I think the potential for this to be a VERY VERY serious matter for AIR to cope with is crystal clear.
    Suppose they will keep most of the $1.4 billion prepaid fares whether punters fly or not. That could help
    Last edited by winner69; 16-02-2020 at 12:28 PM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  13. #15343
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    And wine merchants will be suffering as well .....AIR proudly touted they poured 963,202 bottles of wine last year.

    Wowsers ...wine and flying don’t mix ...should stop it.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  14. #15344
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Suppose they will keep most of the $1.4 billion prepaid fares whether punters fly or not. That could help
    It will for a few months. What could be quite interesting when AIR report later this month is if there's any caution in the commentary regarding forward bookings ? This is arguably the best business in N.Z. to get a feel for whether people's intentions are changing as $1,372m in forward bookings as at 30 June 2019 indicates more than 3 months forward travel.

    We probably won't see any change in prepaid travel as at 31 December 2019 with the numbers coming out shortly but it will be interesting to see where this number stands as at 30 June 2020 ! I am sure they will have an inkling of how this number might be changing when they report their half year results later this month...and if people's intention to defer discretionary travel snowballs then look out !

    Hope SUM have their annual meeting in Auckland this April. Its a long drive to Wellington and back.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-02-2020 at 12:48 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #15345
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Most people I know who work for AIR rated Chris Luxon very well and are sad he's gone.....
    Everybody I know in the airline industry did not think much of him at all (I am being polite here).

    Results out a week Thursday.
    The commentary around future booking will be the thing that we are all interested in, mainly whether they are seen as realistic.
    om mani peme hum

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