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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #15321
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Yes, a sobering bit of news from Vietnam Air. Note, however, that China accounts for a third of Vietnam's tourists.
    Just for comparison: China accounts for roughly 10% of all New Zealand tourists. Sure, lesser exposure than Vietnam, but still quite material.
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  2. #15322
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Yes, a sobering bit of news from Vietnam Air. Note, however, that China accounts for a third of Vietnam's tourists.
    Very sobering at this very early stage and it isn't just Chinese by any means that can't or don't want to be travelling. Discretionary long haul travel is on indefinite hold for everyone I personally know. There are those that have to travel long haul regularly for work though, like Iceman and I hope he's okay.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-02-2020 at 03:00 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
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  3. #15323
    Go The Warriors "This Year!"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Most people I know who work for AIR rated Chris Luxon very well and are sad he's gone. Greg Foran with his background is going to be ruthless in cutting costs and will need to be. I am sick and tired of other companies pandering and encouraging all things LGTBQ so good on him for cancelling the pink flights.

    Couple of reports out overnight I have seen suggest air travel within the Asia Pacific region previously forecast to grow at 4.5% in 2020 could contract by as much as 8% this year and that's just based on known information about the virus at this time.

    If this becomes a worldwide pandemic, look out, demand for air travel will fall off the face of a cliff like nothing anyone has ever seen before. You will see what cost cutting really feels like then...for example Cathay Pacific have asked many of their workers to take unpaid leave until June, (which could easily be restated to a later month). Good luck to those that don't have a decent nest egg for a rainy day.

    Foran will do whatever needs to be done to ensure the survival of the airline and you'll probably look back and think Chris Luxon was a kind caring person after all...that's my prediction. AIR is a clear SELL in my view with known risks. Fair value is where the shares are now, (before there was any virus risk at all) and nothing whatsoever has come off to account for known virus risks...I leave it to others to judge whether that's logical or not.
    Been there seen it all before... You tend to when you have been in this industry as long as alot of us have!
    We were within a few hours of closing the door for good with the Ansett disaster.. Not knowing if we should take our personal equipment home with us each night in case the gates were locked the next day..you tend to grow to be quite resilient in this industry.
    Would I buy AIR... Nope... Carona Virus, the787's drama and the like is enough to convince me to look elsewhere..can't quite fathom why the share price is still where it is. Good for holders though and I wish you all the best..
    As for Luxon everyone has their own opinions and always will...
    I'll keep mine to myself...
    And Beagle I can assure you that there has been plenty of pandering to certain groups of the employee community.

  4. #15324
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny1 View Post
    ... there has been plenty of pandering to certain groups of the employee community...
    Interesting word "pander" :

    pander
    1.
    v yield (to); give satisfaction to
    2.
    vn arrange for sexual partners for others
    Yeeks! just what has been going on at AIR?

  5. #15325
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    They're always going to need highly skilled people like you that fix things Benny so you'll be okay.
    Best wishes.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #15326
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    Interesting word "pander" :

    pander
    1.
    v yield (to); give satisfaction to
    2.
    vn arrange for sexual partners for others
    Yeeks! just what has been going on at AIR?
    Well you got to add abit of spice to work day don't you!!! Haha

  7. #15327
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny1 View Post
    Well you got to add abit of spice to work day don't you!!! Haha
    lol, sounds like a great place to work! Hope that up-tight Luxton dude didn't spoil it!

  8. #15328
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Good luck mate. This news out yesterday (one of the first bits of news out of the aviation industry that endeavours to quantify the impact of this virus), gives an interesting insight into how difficult this storm might be to navigate. https://ph.news.yahoo.com/vietnam-ai...054307063.html

    I am sure AIR will update shareholders how their forward bookings are looking with their half year result due later this month and I expect that they will clearly articulate a serious decline in people's forward intentions arounds bookings. I expect a downgrade to 2020 guidance later this month with the half year result and at least one more, probably two more downgrades before June 2020. Shareholders might also like to brace for a dividend cut as it would appear to be prudent to conserve cash at this time.

    I wouldn't presently even pay $2.50 per share. I don't want to be a prophet of doom because I like the company but the fact is AIR is directly in the path of this approaching storm and there's nowhere to hide. Depending on the severity of its effects it could get extremely ugly.
    Just a little snippet. My wife yesterday had to change dates on a flight with AIR to London via LA at the beginning of March. The call centre person told us the cehapest option would be to go through HK as "we have had hundreds of cancellations on that route".
    Needless to say my wife will go through LA !

  9. #15329
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    Just before it all kicked off, we bought tickets for a holiday to the UK. To via LA and back via HK. Will be watching this one with interest.

  10. #15330
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Just a little snippet. My wife yesterday had to change dates on a flight with AIR to London via LA at the beginning of March. The call centre person told us the cehapest option would be to go through HK as "we have had hundreds of cancellations on that route".
    Needless to say my wife will go through LA !
    Interesting information, though probably predictable.

    From personal experience - it is quite easy to catch a flu or bad cold on these long distance flights ... probably every second time I go to Europe I end up with one of these - caught in flight on one of these legs. So far however I survived them all ;

    But anyway - I would think that in these hyped up days the risk to catch a bug on the plane might be lower than normal ... everybody will be alert and highly unlikely that they allow particularly in SE Asia anybody with symptoms (no matter which flu or cold) close to the airport ...

    Personally - I would have taken the HK connection - it is nicer (and less risk to catch whatever bug) if you
    fly in less filled planes and go through well organised airports with friendly staff. North American airports are inefficient, always full with arrogant security staff, bull dogs and a bunch of bureaucrats who clearly enjoy to exercise the nearly unlimited power they have over incoming passengers. Not sure whether queuing up in front of US immigration with lots of other people (some of them might be sick) for often one to two hours really reduces the bug spread.

    Anyway - all the best and safe travels to your wife ...

    We plan to go August / September and I am sure I won't take the route through the US ..
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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