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15-02-2020, 02:51 PM
#15331
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Interesting
But anyway - I would think that in these hyped up days the risk to catch a bug on the plane might be lower than normal ... everybody will be alert and highly unlikely that they allow particularly in SE Asia anybody with symptoms (no matter which flu or cold) close to the airport ...
Personally - I would have taken the HK connection - it is nicer (and less risk to catch whatever bug) if you
fly in less filled planes and go through well organised airports with friendly staff...
With the coronavirus around flying on airplanes is a huge no no...
Just a few days ago 21 studies confirmed that this virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces... you touch it and dont wash your hands before you rub your face and eyes and you have it...
Planes are never cleaned efficiently.. maybe this might change with coronavirus i doubt it... the aircon is the worst... the ducts never get cleaned ever id think... which is a breeding ground for moulds and fungus...those little knobs you turn to direct air ive heard are bad bad bad.... but i cant find much info on it and cant remember how i heard about it....
You dont even have to be within 3 feet to catch the virus... from how contageous the virus is id say that if one person on the entire flight has it then by the end every person has it...
I would not be flying anywhere and at least seeing how the weeks unfold... I am to believe the numbers infected are significantly higher than reported... and some studies have predicted that even as early as late this month that hundreds of millions of people could become infected...
.^sc
BITCOIN certified rat poop. NSA created, Expensive to send, slow, can only trade on cex, no autonomy, spaghetti code, has been hacked, accidental Backdoor brc20s whoops, no one building on it, alienated all cryptos against it, volume is fake, few whales control large supply... it will perform though
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15-02-2020, 05:15 PM
#15332
The resilience of some of the corona linked companies like AIR I find surprising. This would have to be $2.00 come March.
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15-02-2020, 06:41 PM
#15333
Originally Posted by ynot
The resilience of some of the corona linked companies like AIR I find surprising. This would have to be $2.00 come March.
I've been thinking the same and see this under $2 soon.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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15-02-2020, 10:24 PM
#15334
Originally Posted by Shrewd Crude
With the coronavirus around flying on airplanes is a huge no no...
ed are significantly higher than reported... and some studies have predicted that even as early as late this month that hundreds of millions of people could become infected...
.^sc
Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !
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16-02-2020, 12:47 PM
#15335
Originally Posted by Beagle
A lot of people don't understand that airlines are a very low margin business wither very high fixed overheads and very high staff costs, (plus in AIR's case a vast number of troughers getting paid far too much). If average load factors drop from the current 83-84% down even to 70% it is likely in my opinion that AIR will be losing money.
If the effects are sustained beyond say 6-8 months there's going to have to be some restructuring in AIR. My assessment is fair value for AIR BEFORE this virus risk was $2.75.
If they start losing money I would think its quite likely we'll see the shares retrench down towards NTA of $1.69.
I almost feel sorry for Greg Foran. With no airline experience he couldn't have chosen a more challenging time to take over the reigns at AIR. Talk about a baptism of fire
I agree with Balance, the tourism sector is a very good one to avoid for the foreseeable future. THL also a SELL in my opinion.
Beagle I’d say a reduced capacity to 75% would be pretty disasterous .
That’s about 2 million less passengers ...on a mainly fixed cost base
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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16-02-2020, 12:56 PM
#15336
Originally Posted by iceman
Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !
Not the case for most though. We have postponed contracts overseas so the team don't get caught up in this. A lot of business travel will be on hold until this is understood. Haven't held AIR for a while, the wind went out of its sails long ago.
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16-02-2020, 01:04 PM
#15337
Originally Posted by winner69
Beagle I’d say a reduced capacity to 75% would be pretty disasterous .
That’s about 2 million less passengers ...on a mainly fixed cost base
You're probably dead right. Passenger revenue last year was $4,960m. Very quick look would suggest an 8% reduction in load factor would suck about $400m off the top line. Then there's the retrenchment of various routes, Hong Kong and Singapore next ?. The effect on revenue would also be serious in regard to route suspensions.
Then there's the effect on yield, super special offers to keep people flying ? and effect on cargo volumes and pricing.
One would hope that Greg Foran would be quick and nimble enough to manage his way through this but a complete newbie to the airline industry at a time when there could be unprecedented disruption is not a good coincidence.
I think the potential for this to be a VERY VERY serious matter for AIR to cope with is crystal clear.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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16-02-2020, 01:11 PM
#15338
Originally Posted by iceman
Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !
If this thing really "blows up" maybe it is time for a change ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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16-02-2020, 01:18 PM
#15339
Originally Posted by Beagle
I've been thinking the same and see this under $2 soon.
asian cruise ship industry virtually halted , so asian flying will be similar so what is the % of air asian business worth and your have idea of immediate impact to bottom line
one step ahead of the herd
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16-02-2020, 01:24 PM
#15340
Originally Posted by Beagle
You're probably dead right. Passenger revenue last year was $4,960m. Very quick look would suggest an 8% reduction in load factor would suck about $400m off the top line. Then there's the retrenchment of various routes, Hong Kong and Singapore next ?. The effect on revenue would also be serious in regard to route suspensions.
Then there's the effect on yield, super special offers to keep people flying ? and effect on cargo volumes and pricing.
One would hope that Greg Foran would be quick and nimble enough to manage his way through this but a complete newbie to the airline industry at a time when there could be unprecedented disruption is not a good coincidence.
I think the potential for this to be a VERY VERY serious matter for AIR to cope with is crystal clear.
Suppose they will keep most of the $1.4 billion prepaid fares whether punters fly or not. That could help
Last edited by winner69; 16-02-2020 at 01:28 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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