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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #14326
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Benni1 or anyone else, do any of you know where exactly AIR is at with the RR repairs and when the Dreamliners may be back in normal and full schedule service, rather than running leased or much more inefficient planes than planned !
    Nope no idea how long this will drag on for..
    It will be for quite a while yet.
    This is not something that will be resolved this year...
    As far as the leased planes go... This is a very fluid situation.. I would most likely expect the EVA 777-300 would be the first to go.. The lease would be quite a lot more than for the other two.
    This will all of course depend on the extent of the apparent softening in tourist demand.. The schedule may reduce to a point that the airline can manage with just their own fleet allowing for a few 787's being parked up at any one time.. 4 out of service at the moment .. however some engine's will be available over the next few weeks... Again not sure how many aircraft will actually get back flying.. possibly a couple.
    Sorry probably doesn't help too much!

  2. #14327
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    Thanks Benny1. Yes this was good info. Pleased I sold out when these issues hit and based on your answer re RR issues, no need at all to rush back in for me. Just all too uncertain and risky for me to invest in an airline with such issues hanging over them.
    Last edited by iceman; 02-02-2019 at 07:11 AM.

  3. #14328
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny1 View Post
    Nope no idea how long this will drag on for..
    It will be for quite a while yet.
    This is not something that will be resolved this year...
    As far as the leased planes go... This is a very fluid situation.. I would most likely expect the EVA 777-300 would be the first to go.. The lease would be quite a lot more than for the other two.
    This will all of course depend on the extent of the apparent softening in tourist demand.. The schedule may reduce to a point that the airline can manage with just their own fleet allowing for a few 787's being parked up at any one time.. 4 out of service at the moment .. however some engine's will be available over the next few weeks... Again not sure how many aircraft will actually get back flying.. possibly a couple.
    Sorry probably doesn't help too much!
    I have my serious hat on today. I don't understand from as legal point of view why AIR are not climbing into RR over the obvious impact on the airline with this engine issue.
    RR have a market cap of 17 Billions pounds https://www.rolls-royce.com/investors/share-price.aspx so I don't accept a fully litigious approach would have any catastrophic effect on RR.

    I'm going to be all over this issue at the next annual meeting and won't take the usual "commercial confidentiality" response without some serious barking. I can't see why AIR don't have a strong actionable case against RR and I think the losses the airline are experiencing because of this issue may be recoverable once this fiasco is sorted.

    I am watching the share price decline closely on the basis that at some point I think this becomes a BUY especially if one looks through their current issues and values the company on a DCF basis. I was surprised by Friday's fall but that may not be the end of it. Fortunately I have a fairly modest position at present but I am looking to acquire a good meaningful stake at the right time.

    Speaking of engine issues I have my own and it really rocks your confidence. Brand new ZB Commodore Calais V delivered just before Christmas. Engine seized 20 days and 850 km's later. Unlike AIR I don't take these sort of issues lying down but then again there are more than two engine manufacturers so that makes it easier...
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-02-2019 at 09:16 AM.
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  4. #14329
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Benni1 or anyone else, do any of you know where exactly AIR is at with the RR repairs and when the Dreamliners may be back in normal and full schedule service, rather than running leased or much more inefficient planes than planned !
    Some guy on the internet claimed Rather Rocky Motors had received certification from the FAA and its European counterpart for a redesigned impeller blade. I would imagine these are being manufactured quickly for installation in affected engines. This replacement would require an engine removal and tear-down.

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  5. #14330
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Speaking of engine issues I have my own and it really rocks your confidence. Brand new ZB Commodore Calais V delivered just before Christmas. Engine seized 20 days and 850 km's later. Unlike AIR I don't take these sort of issues lying down but then again there are more than two engine manufacturers so that makes it easier...
    Its an Opel/Vauxhall - what were you thinking.

  6. #14331
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    A job for you Beagle ...will be extremely well paid
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  7. #14332
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A job for you Beagle ...will be extremely well paid
    Trust me on this, you do not want to see the Beagle in body paint lol
    freddagg - I'm thinking its a crying shame Ford have stopped production in Australia
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-02-2019 at 11:40 AM.
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  8. #14333
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I have my serious hat on today. I don't understand from as legal point of view why AIR are not climbing into RR over the obvious impact on the airline with this engine issue.
    RR have a market cap of 17 Billions pounds https://www.rolls-royce.com/investors/share-price.aspx so I don't accept a fully litigious approach would have any catastrophic effect on RR.

    I'm going to be all over this issue at the next annual meeting and won't take the usual "commercial confidentiality" response without some serious barking. I can't see why AIR don't have a strong actionable case against RR and I think the losses the airline are experiencing because of this issue may be recoverable once this fiasco is sorted.

    I am watching the share price decline closely on the basis that at some point I think this becomes a BUY especially if one looks through their current issues and values the company on a DCF basis. I was surprised by Friday's fall but that may not be the end of it. Fortunately I have a fairly modest position at present but I am looking to acquire a good meaningful stake at the right time.

    Speaking of engine issues I have my own and it really rocks your confidence. Brand new ZB Commodore Calais V delivered just before Christmas. Engine seized 20 days and 850 km's later. Unlike AIR I don't take these sort of issues lying down but then again there are more than two engine manufacturers so that makes it easier...
    As far as I am aware in the past a lot of the compensation offered by the likes of Rolls Royce and other component manufactures comes in the offer of discounts on future purchases.
    That is why I would not at all be surprised to see Rolls Royce engines on future aircraft ordered, this artifice sums that up for me:

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12176487

    When words such as compartmentalise get used that says to me we are still friends with Rolls and look forward to doing business with them again soon.....That's just my take on it!

    However we will not know probably for a couple of months what the decision is for the new aircraft...although thinking about it..announcing an order for shiny new jets may take some of the sting out of the half your results due out soon??

  9. #14334
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    That $340m npbt guidance pretty bad

    Just imagine what it would have been if the price of fuel had stayed up $100

    If so $2 would be cheap.....Chris and his team have fingers crossed that the price of fuel stays low
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Raz, can you expound on that argument please. I have a theory too about premium pricing but I would be interested to hear yours.
    If you are looking at economy, especially Asia and Europe...the price premium is materially against AIR compared to first tier airlines.. most of the year.

    Air's Business class product is also out of date compared to other first tier airlines yet generally costs more. Also no first class means they do miss out on some high yield passengers that are going to others.

    Price driven customers - they are not in the running, since the jet fuel price bump last year they were not competitive on price even when specials were launched.

    As an aside smart people driven by price can get cheaper Air product on code share specials internationally as well..

    Product, already mentioned for business class is also a problem for economy - tight seats on planes plus lower service levels on flights have weakened the overall experience on international flights.

    Why its so different to the professional and warm nature of service domestically has been a puzzle for a while. Koru lounges are well documented. Scheduling of flights has been compromised since the network has been placed under pressure since the RR issues started. Delays have become more common.

    On balance the experience has deteriorated to the point it is inferior to a number of others and also similar to some lower priced carriers.

    I get the feeling given they are the national airline they believe customers will be sticky given the brand. Even Disney discovered this would only hold to a certain point and are noticing attendance decline. However in the airline business sales at the margin can determine profitability.
    Last edited by Raz; 02-02-2019 at 02:36 PM.

  11. #14336
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    That $340m npbt guidance pretty bad

    Just imagine what it would have been if the price of fuel had stayed up $100

    If so $2 would be cheap.....Chris and his team have fingers crossed that the price of fuel stays low
    $340m will make for a sad and even more disappointed Beagle. Hopefully a bit further up the guidance range. I hope AIR stop barking about their good relationship with RR and start showing some teeth and use them ! RR deserve some really serious pain over their shonky engines.
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-02-2019 at 03:41 PM.
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  12. #14337
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    $340m will make for a sad and even more disappointed Beagle. Hopefully a bit further up the guidance range. I hope AIR stop barking about their good relationship with RR and start showing some teeth and use them ! RR deserve some really serious pain over their shonky engines.
    RR do, but is this strategically the best option for an airline operating in a limited supply market. To avoid a mismash of engines, you ideally want to be with one supplier. If you go all legalistic with this supplier, will you get the best deal in the future. If you go legalistic, will you be at the front or end of the cue if you need additional engines or specialist assistance in the future? If you develop a reputation for being legalistic, will this assist or hinder your negotiating position should you decide in the future to change primary suppliers?

    Will going legalistic even get you more compensation for the issues?

    On balance its a bit like when your partner does something stupid - you want to get mad but often it isn't the best option.

  13. #14338
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    A mismash of engines is not a big deal... Sometimes an aircraft will only come with one choice of engine ( think the 777-300er).
    Engines a normally sold these days with a total care package so the maintenance specs and overhauls are carried out by the manufacturer...
    Only limited engine work is now carried out in-house.
    You are right in not pi$$ing off the suppliers as you will be back at the table with them sooner of later wanting a discount on your new engine purchases.. Pi$$ them off and good luck to you...

  14. #14339
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12201768

    CEO of Virgin is going after 8 years and earning top money while having more than one third of the Australian market the airline has struggled really badly while Qantas has gone from strength to strength.
    Luxon was right to get out of Virgin and challenge the board that this guy is a liability in more ways than one. Virgin's load factor on the Tasman since the acrimonious split with AIR late last year is pretty interesting.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #14340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12201768

    CEO of Virgin is going after 8 years and earning top money while having more than one third of the Australian market the airline has struggled really badly while Qantas has gone from strength to strength.
    Luxon was right to get out of Virgin and challenge the board that this guy is a liability in more ways than one. Virgin's load factor on the Tasman since the acrimonious split with AIR late last year is pretty interesting.
    If cullen Airlines wanted and could get an agreement on stratergy from Lee Kuan Yew Airlines it could buy back in to Virgin(Under arm bowlers division) at a good discount.

    Etihad need the cash and I'm pretty certain the China based holders are ruefully contemplating the balance between the ying and the yang of their buy in.

    However Cullen Airlines should be mindfull of the Kiwi dollars previously squandered trying to follow the yellow brick road of investment in Aussie aviation.

    Boop boop de do
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