Impressions from the call :-
Sounds like they have been having good dialogue with RR and direct cost impact this year will be about half the previously indicated $30-40m
Indirect RR impact costs running at about $20m per annum to be largely out of the business by Q1 FY20.
Capacity growth in FY20 towards the top end of the 3-5% range.
First 777-200 replacement due in 2023.
Focus on revenue per available seat kilometer strength (RASK)
Cost reduction focus is on top of existing plans to reduce CASK (cost per available seat kilometer)
Very minimal noticeable impact to forward bookings from Chch tragedy
Free wifi from today for enabled planes is a good thing.
I think the confidence within the business is strong and they are focused on executing well in this lower growth environment.
Capex deferral underwrites their ability to pay strong and sustainable dividends and get their gearing back to very moderate level's...(music to any dividend hounds ears). https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...07/financials/ I think we could see some modest upgrade to average analyst forecasts for FY20 and FY21 of $430m before tax.
A year is a long time in the aviation industry but I see fair value of ~ $2.75 a year from now and a gross yield of approx. 12.4% at the current share price of ~ $2.47.
Last edited by Beagle; 28-03-2019 at 02:01 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
You got to laugh at the old announcement the way they praise themselves for being the pinnacle of dynamic proactive & reactive management when half of the time they can not organise a drinking session in a Koru Lounge.
You got to laugh at the old announcement the way they praise themselves for being the pinnacle of dynamic proactive & reactive management when half of the time they can not organise a drinking session in a Koru Lounge.
Big egos eh Snowy ... but Chris’s halo is shining less brightly these days as AIRs earnings this year head to about the half of that of a few years ago ....headline won’t say ‘Worst year for a while but still a strong performance’
Talking of Koru lounges the Wellington domestic one is in temporary premises .....still have the barista but the rich and famous now need to join the hoi polloi in the public toilets ....shocking state off affairs
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Thought I better read the AIR update to see what the fuss is all about ...in case I reinvest Your superstitious beliefs colour your judgement
So $60m extra savings sometime ...like pissing in the ocean ....and one of those immeasurable things that gives comfort management doing something $60m on top of other initiatives to reduce CASK is definitely not chump change and underwrites profit growth going forward
Focus on CASK and RASK .....OMG (not an aviation term) isn’t that what they are meant to be doing every single day as part of their job.They have a good track record of steadily reducing CASK which has been impacted by the RR issue and additional costs around introducing the A320/1 NEO fleet. Downward CASK trendline will keep reducing (excl fuel)
Putting off upgrading the fleet ...hmm ....just deferring the inevitable as the average age creeps higher Their average fleet age is several years younger than the industry average which is 9.9 years according to IATA. Good pragmatic decision making to reflect a different growth environment
Improved economy class experience .....pigs might fly (sorry planes fly and pigs don’t)
Oh well - all honky dory on the AIRfront. Chris has had his thrill for the month and loyal shareholders happy.
I think you're just trying to wind the dog up by yanking his tail. YAWN.,..what shall I spend that really juice divvy I just received on ?
Last edited by Beagle; 29-03-2019 at 10:36 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Snow Leopard
Bookmarks