AIR - Air NZ.

[Baa_Baa]

Sure, but dividends just make the case stronger. With 5 year returns of over 200% and 300% why do you still say never to invest in airlines?!?!

Have you swapped your stripes for Buffet's spots and gone into his "never invest in airlines" cave??

There are substantial barriers to entry for new competitors as Air Asia X, Jetstar in NZ and Norwegian prove. Plane production is limited in the medium term as are pilots, engineers and now even engines. Plenty of short term risks that can trip up under funded or unlucky new entrants (Kiwi Air, Origin Pacific etc). And of course strong demand growth that has continued for decades as per seat costs fall.

Top brands with captive and rational home markets like Air NZ, Qantas and the US big 4 have proved resilient and attract the best employees and customers. They are like the Apple of their respective markets earning the majority of the industry's profits compared to the budget airlines that get left over crumbs just as Android manufacturers do.

@Jaa the spotty one can speak for himself.

I would put forward a perspective that these cyclicals are the definition of volatility and over a long period of time have proven limited capital gains with wild swings during the in-between times. $3.26 high Jan 2016 to $1.72 low Oct 2016 back to $3.60 high Nov 2017, double top $3.61 high Sept 2017 and a bumpier ride since then than a NW gales force landing at Wellington airport.

Sure, the dividends smooth out the volatility, but imho unless you're a savvy trader it's better to either shut your eyes and count only the dividends, or stay out of this stomach churning cyclical with it's bumpy in betweens. Conversely, savvy traders make a lot more trading the momentum, but they're savvy traders and incidentally pickup the occasional dividend as a bonus if they happen to be in for an up cycle.

jmho. Some with long memories will also remember AIR at $0.21 when the government bailed them out. That was shocking at the time for the panic stricken, but mana from heaven for the buy-ins and traders bottom feeding.

For many, AIR is just too volatile to be taken seriously. It's not a buy and hold imo especially for anyone sensitive to capital management or those without the skills to manage their capital.

[iceman]

Try living in the regions! Farming of a different kind - cash cows!

The Beagle is on record on this thread to tell us Citizens of Shane Jones´regions to stop bleating about airfares and be pleased AIR wants to serve us. Different strokes for different folks :-)

[Beagle]

The Beagle is on record on this thread to tell us Citizens of Shane Jones´regions to stop bleating about airfares and be pleased AIR wants to serve us. Different strokes for different folks :-)

What I was trying to get across is that the economics of flying smaller planes (I believe this may have been at the time AIR were still flying 19 seater Beechcraft 1900's) is very, very different to jets.
You still have to have two pilots and pay landing fees and related costs whether you're flying 19 or nearly ten times that many in a fully loaded A320.
The fact that despite some very expensive fares on those aircraft on regionals services AIR admitted they were losing $1m a month and extricated themselves from using them validates my viewpoint.
To some extent a somewhat similar situation presents with their 50 seater aircraft. $500 return on a main trunk route between Auckland and Wellington on an A320 is something else.

[winner69]

Just as well AIR don’t rort families like some do

Probably that Primera Air did such things and they have just gone bust (had 18 jets)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/ne...ectid=12136033

[iceman]

What I was trying to get across is that the economics of flying smaller planes (I believe this may have been at the time AIR were still flying 19 seater Beechcraft 1900's) is very, very different to jets.
You still have to have two pilots and pay landing fees and related costs whether you're flying 19 or nearly ten times that many in a fully loaded A320.
The fact that despite some very expensive fares on those aircraft on regionals services AIR admitted they were losing $1m a month and extricated themselves from using them validates my viewpoint.
To some extent a somewhat similar situation presents with their 50 seater aircraft. $500 return on a main trunk route between Auckland and Wellington on an A320 is something else.

I was just having you on mate and looks like I got a bark out of you. All in jest my friend

[couta1]

I was just having you on mate and looks like I got a bark out of you. All in jest my friend

The Beagle wouldnt live long as a fish.Lol.

[winner69]

Chris not very PC today

Less hui but more do-ey he told the Government

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12136103

[Beagle]

I was just having you on mate and looks like I got a bark out of you. All in jest my friend

The Beagle wouldnt live long as a fish.Lol.

Beagles are hopeless when it comes to food whether it's bait or not...they just go for it lol
Guess I'm still licking my wounds over Chris Luxon wanting me to pay part of his Christmas bonus lol
I could resort to flying Jetheap to Wellington to attend the CMO annual meeting now I'm not longer a shareholder but No, not even if it is free.

P.S Shane Jones seems to have got under a lot of people's skin with his bulldog behavior. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12135746

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12136103

Chris Luxon calls it as it really is.

[Timesurfer]

Good luck getting a rational prediction of the future with Shane Jones gobbing off as he does.

We be hoping that the airlines aren't about to capitulate
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/...pen-in-october