AIR - Air NZ.

[Ecks]

Anyone know why AIR SP is stagnating at around 88 cents, no movement for 3 trading days...? Surely it should be falling faster than a fat kid fighting gravity!

[Ecks]

I shall head down to the beach again at 4.00 today and watch the last, (for a while) Q300 flight take off and head overhead on its way up north. Yesterday the view from our local beach out across the manukau harbour towards the airport and Hunua ranges, the air was the clearest I have ever seen it.

Thanks Benny. 70 hours a week for each parked jet means plenty of work for engineers so that's good. I don't think anyone wants to see the airline fail....they just can't see how realistically it can survive in its current form. It won't fail, the Govt won't let it. In financial terms though, for minority shareholders this looks like a one way journey to Argentina with not enough fuel to get there.

One way journey to Argentina with not enough fuel to get there! I LOVE IT, still laughing as I type this one, that's your best call yet Beagle! AirNZ will be forever changed!

[Dassets]

You can't short it and haven't been able to be at least 2 weeks despite what people say on this site.

[Beagle]

Some people have had their short positions on for much longer than that.

[Chinesekiwi]

Anyone know why AIR SP is stagnating at around 88 cents, no movement for 3 trading days...? Surely it should be falling faster than a fat kid fighting gravity!

aaah I needed a good chuckle.

[Scrunch]

Anyone know why AIR SP is stagnating at around 88 cents, no movement for 3 trading days...? Surely it should be falling faster than a fat kid fighting gravity!

Maths is a strange thing.

How much would you pay to receive $3.00 if a standard, unbiased dice were rolled and the result was a 5 or a 6?. 50c, 70c, 88c or perhaps almost $1.00.

The most likely outcome is that a 1,2,3 or 4 is rolled and you lose your wager. Beagle thinks the most likely outcome is the government doing a huge bailout of Air NZ diluting minority interests down to nearly nothing. He's basically betting that a 1-4 is rolled on this dice. He may be correct and in this theoretical instance 67% of the time would be.

The interesting question is are there possibilities that have Air NZ getting through without a hugely diluting capital raise (the 5's and 6's in rolling a dice). I think there might be but I don't know if they are sufficiently likely to justify 88c. At least two exist:

1. The level 4 lock-down works and domestic traffic returns to fairly normal levels. Sure there's less international connections but then there's a whole heap of additional domestic tourism as all those people who want a holiday but can't go internationally travel domestically and "see NZ". Can NZ get through on this level of activity until a full international network is resumed? Possibly.

2. Developments such as finger-prink covid tests mean international flights resume as the entire flight is pre-tested as part of the check-in process. What is the health risk to the people on the flight and to the destination country if all the people on the flight have been confirmed not to have the virus before boarding the plane? I'd say its pretty much zero (if the test is very accurate). Does the test below have sufficient accuracy - I don't know.
https://www.medicaldevice-network.co...rick-covid-19/

[Marilyn Munroe]

Over the ditch Queer and Nasty Airlines and Virgin (Under Arm Bowlers Division) are trash talking one another over who is entitled to dip their snout into the Aussie taxpayers trough.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...ilure/12110064

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Ecks]

Maths is a strange thing.

How much would you pay to receive $3.00 if a standard, unbiased dice were rolled and the result was a 5 or a 6?. 50c, 70c, 88c or perhaps almost $1.00.

The most likely outcome is that a 1,2,3 or 4 is rolled and you lose your wager. Beagle thinks the most likely outcome is the government doing a huge bailout of Air NZ diluting minority interests down to nearly nothing. He's basically betting that a 1-4 is rolled on this dice. He may be correct and in this theoretical instance 67% of the time would be.

The interesting question is are there possibilities that have Air NZ getting through without a hugely diluting capital raise (the 5's and 6's in rolling a dice). I think there might be but I don't know if they are sufficiently likely to justify 88c. At least two exist:

1. The level 4 lock-down works and domestic traffic returns to fairly normal levels. Sure there's less international connections but then there's a whole heap of additional domestic tourism as all those people who want a holiday but can't go internationally travel domestically and "see NZ". Can NZ get through on this level of activity until a full international network is resumed? Possibly.

2. Developments such as finger-prink covid tests mean international flights resume as the entire flight is pre-tested as part of the check-in process. What is the health risk to the people on the flight and to the destination country if all the people on the flight have been confirmed not to have the virus before boarding the plane? I'd say its pretty much zero (if the test is very accurate). Does the test below have sufficient accuracy - I don't know.
https://www.medicaldevice-network.co...rick-covid-19/

Entertaining analogy! Everyone likes a gamble! My thinking is that the likely debt to equity swap and government ownership increase should shed light on existing investors decision to sell and salvage any value they have left in their shares but it simply isn't happening, are people just willing to stay in the boat until it sinks!? Or in this case, on the plane with not enough fuel (as Beagle was correctly barking)

[Beagle]

Forbar reckon a debt to equity swap is almost certain, I think it is certain.

Took 3 years after 9/11 for demand to come back to normal. Sharemarket reaction around the world speaks for itself that this is much worse than 9/11 or the GFC.

[BlackPeter]

Forbar reckon a debt to equity swap is almost certain, I think it is certain.

Took 3 years after 9/11 for demand to come back to normal. Sharemarket reaction around the world speaks for itself that this is much worse than 9/11 or the GFC.

The economical impact is clearly faster than the GFC was - and it probably will be deeper (though this depends on a lot of decisions we still need to make and developments nobody can predict).

I don't think anybody can predict the duration. Sure - it won't be just a handful of months, but whether it will be over in say 12 months (after the successful roll out of a cure), in 18 months (after they successfully tested and rolled out a vaccine) or in 3 years or later - who could tell?

Agree however that the new normal will look different - there clearly will be both less tourism and less business travel. However - it should be possible to operate a successful airline based on the new normal, however it might look like.