AIR - Air NZ.

[Zaphod]

Agree - Airpoints are useful and more currency than probably all of the crypto's (you even can buy something of worth with them), but they are not crypto ; The information is stored in some boring old centralized databases controlled by AIR. No need for a wallet or funny crypto-keys to spend them either - and hey, they don't go up and down in worth like an out of control bungee, but they are nice and steady ...

AirNZ's databases are even a geographically distributed RDBMS, functioning much like a private blockchain! A blatant attempt to ramp up the SP.

On the serious side, there are some risks to the Airpoints scheme. For example, having a large APD balance is dangerous as Air NZ could devalue the programme at any given moment by adjusting the earn/burn ratio. Earn rates have eroded recently, especially on regional sectors, ostensibly to better reflect APD earn rates against actual spending with AirNZ.

[winner69]

Qantas far superior than AIR on punctuality
http://www.traveller.com.au/the-worl...or-2017-h0ffdg

In mainline category Qantas 5th and AIR 17th

AIR fair way down list in Asia Pacific group

[value_investor]

Yikes! Looks like a sell off has begun then. It will be interesting to see where it settles. Down quiet solidly today and has been for a few months now.

Crude oil really trucking along in terms of price. Will eat into the annual result in the 2H FY, and still think there might be more to this dreamliner saga. What's the chances it just gets up being in the same place as last FY at 525m?

[Beagle]

Yikes! Looks like a sell off has begun then. It will be interesting to see where it settles. Down quiet solidly today and has been for a few months now.

Crude oil really trucking along in terms of price. Will eat into the annual result in the 2H FY, and still think there might be more to this dreamliner saga. What's the chances it just gets up being in the same place as last FY at 525m?

At the annual meeting they were upbeat about profit growth this year but this was based on an oil price quite considerably lower than today. They do have about 75% forward cover for FY18 but the market is a forward looking beast and like me its wondering how they get on in FY19 ?
In short I think you can "look forward" to softer outlook commentary from management with their half year result announcement late next month.
Apart from the well discussed engine drama what's bothering me quite a lot is their yield this year which is only up about 2% on last year.
Why am I bothered by a yield increase ?
1. The PCP was a period in which 10 new operators started new or additional services to N.Z. many of which were making sustained opening special offer's on airfares which were at unsustainable level's and AIR had to discount very heavily to retain market share. Since then we've seen quite some rationalization of these new routes by other airlines and yet yields have only recovered ~ 2%
2. This very modest yield recovery is in spite of the fact that spot oil prices are dramatically higher this year compared to last and many other airlines don't have forward cover on their fuel costs.
Other concerns
3. Load factors are down a bit.
4. I think customers have got used too very low airfares (customer adaption) and any attempt to raise airfares to recover the extra fuel costs in FY19 when AIR are presently predominantly unhedged could see customer demand affected.

A gradual pullback to $2.50 as the year unfolds what not surprise me in the slightest. The question is where's the bottom for this stock and I'd have to say its too early to make that call at present.

[Marilyn Munroe]

There is an article in the Sydney Morning Herald about the possibility of paying out the small shareholders and taking Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) private.

It then discusses the muddle of foreign airlines who own stakes in the company. The article suggests this arrangement is unlikely to last and Lee Kuan Yew Airlines will push aside sand state airline Etihad and the two Chinese airlines to gain control.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...10-p4yydg.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

Closed the week below $3 and low of the day as well. Punters obviously wanting to see at weeks end

Bad sign

Does $2.50 beckon

[Jantar]

.....

Does $2.50 beckon

I hope so. Then I shall buy back in and regain the shares I sold at above $3.10

[Joshuatree]

Me too when i sold above $3.15. Found it harder to sell; a little emotional guru ego monkey on my shoulder was saying dont sell, HOLD but the charting and some good posts helped rationality back on and the monkey off.

[Beagle]

Must admit it was quite an emotional wrench for me to exit this one. Did adjust down my holding at $3.46, more a portfolio rebalancing exercise after a stellar run in 2017 but most went in the mid 320's. Now its done, its done and I am pleased and it feels like a cathartic experience. You can date this stock and don't have to be married to it. I still think they're a good well managed company and when risk abates and headwinds reduce and when the SP more correctly reflects the situation and outlook I'll be pleased to buy in again....but please don't ask me when or at what price, far too early to say. Little birdie told me today they are slowly working their way through their engine issues and resulting damage to one or two aircraft...part of the way through this but there's still quite a bit of this journey to travel. Hope they don't get any more failed engines in the meantime. One might speculate that seeing as two have failed their inspection program of the remaining in service engines is very intense !

[sb9]

Coming back from recent overseas trip, had the pleasure of taking Air Nz plane from Singapore to Auckland.

Flight was at full capacity, nice service, meals and smooth flying....no worries, all hunky dory.