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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #17381
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    Air NZ's share price performance is not out of whack with other global airlines. Unlike Singapore and Cathay, Air NZ has an almost COVID free and profitable domestic market to fly in.

    While historically Trans Tasman has not been very profitable for Air NZ this has not been true for the last 5 years or so where Air NZ has dominated its competitors and made good profits. Its most profitable long haul routes was always the USA routes, one of which is still in operation.

    Throw in government wage subsidies, reduced aviation fees, higher prices, lower fuel costs, reparation and increased cargo flights/prices and it is pretty obvious some on here have been overly pessimistic.

    Airline share price comparison, from 2020 low to post mid-March high (mostly yesterday's closing price).

    Air NZ
    L: 0.8 H: 1.64 = 105%

    Air Asia
    L: 0.5 H: 0.86 = 72%

    American Airlines
    L: 8.25 H: 18.59 = 125%

    Cathay Pacific
    L: 7.50 H: 9.39 = 25%

    Delta
    L: 17.51 H: 34.16 = 95%

    Jet Blue
    L: 6.61 H: 13.69 = 107%

    Qantas
    L: 2.03 H: 4.63 = 128%

    Singapore Airlines
    L: 3.53 H: 4:41 = 25%

    Southwest Airlines
    L: 22.46 H: 38.18 = 70%

    United Airlines
    L 17.80 H: 42.40 = 138%

    Ignoring the two Asian airlines that lack domestic markets it would seem Air NZ's share price run still has a bit to go compared to other full service airlines. A 125% increase from the bottom would give $1.80, price target for Monday?

  2. #17382
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    i thought AIR had some oil hedging. Some one even calculated the value of the hedges? prehaps some with expertise in that area could enlighten us?

  3. #17383
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    Really? your gut is always right?

    I have no personal opinion on AIR and have never held, but the reality is - none of you actually know anything for certain, anymore than anyone else does. It is all speculation and supposition, until it’s not. Some of those Sharesies “sheep” as you call them, are not stupid. They took a calculated risk buying AIR cheap, and are willing to take a long term gamble on it paying off. Just as more than a few of us here, are with Blis.

    Who knows? In 15-20 years AIR might reward them for that risk. None of you know for sure, one way or the other. These are not normal times. Anything is possible.

    Just saying.

    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Classic ....all these newbies at the sharies. They all said...long term...long term..but once u are the online flat form and u are able to sell n buy....when the market in bear again....all the sheeps will follow ..

    Mark my word....so far...my gut always right...

  4. #17384
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    Yup...so far always right...

  5. #17385
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    There’s always a first time to be wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Yup...so far always right...

  6. #17386
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    15 to 20 years? for an Air Line? Better to have bought AIA for an investment over that time frame surely. Profits for air lines also seem have a relationship to Jet Fuel prices and state support for competition. I would say SKC has a more certain future than AIR. The other platform (SHARES) seems to have a fee structure that best suite short term trading ?

  7. #17387
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    Finally...some straight talk and a change of tack on the usability of credits https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/progr...tomer-s-family I can now stop calling them a pack of tone deaf idiots as they have finally woken up and smelt the coffee as I suggested. Now if they can finally get their credit system online and up and running, that would be good.

    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other...54Jgp?ocid=se2

    Let me help the shoeshine crowd out with the maths. If you run a BBQ that burns $5 million cash a day, over a period of 12 months that $1,825 million. AIR had total shareholders equity of $2,089 million as at 30 June 2019. Now, I acknowledge the rate at which this BBQ will consume cash might come down slowly a bit as domestic passengers ramp up but not even the most optimistic of people is thinking the effects of this Covid 19 will be over in 365 days. The company itself is talking 800 days and by then only being back to 70% of its former size.

    "Blind Freddy" should be able to see that AIR are in the fight of its 80 year corporate life for their very survival here and absolutely will need substantial fresh capital at some point in the next 12 months. You can be almost certain the Govt wrote itself into an advantageous position with the capital raise as part of their $900m loan agreement. Someone has to pay for all Cindy's generous helicopter money and rich capitalist shareholders will do just fine as the sacrificial lambs...
    Last edited by Beagle; 06-06-2020 at 10:13 PM.
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  8. #17388
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    Don't waste your valuable time here master Beagle....these crowd don't even care...they all laughing at us ...old farts that missed the boat.

    Some here even see that domestic route level 1 would cover n profitable. Some even think long term....bring the tui plz...

    They did not think about March crash.....all sheeps were following the lead to the clip ....

    Let the shorters eat them up ...
    Last edited by King1212; 06-06-2020 at 10:26 PM.

  9. #17389
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    Under level 1 everyone will be using up their credits . So the 600mio Air NZ talk about having which is really these credits will disappear . Meantime the airline has to pay pilots, aircrew, maintenance , fuel , parking charges for the planes not being used . This will take them deeply into the negative as effectively no cash is coming in .

  10. #17390
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    they have to burn 5million a day with wage subsidy,curious how much they have to burn each day after wage subsidy.

    they had 79million wage subsidy already and will apply for another 37million.
    Last edited by Justin; 07-06-2020 at 01:19 AM.

  11. #17391
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post

    "Blind Freddy" should be able to see that AIR are in the fight of its 80 year corporate life for their very survival here and absolutely will need substantial fresh capital at some point in the next 12 months. You can be almost certain the Govt wrote itself into an advantageous position with the capital raise as part of their $900m loan agreement. Someone has to pay for all Cindy's generous helicopter money and rich capitalist shareholders will do just fine as the sacrificial lambs...
    The problem is every Sharesies-type buyer I know is a socialist. And a voter, in an election year.

    Therefore, I could easily see some absolutely necessary and urgent decisions that need to be made now being kicked down the road as ye olde BBQ keeps on burning.

    I think anyone long Air NZ is out of their mind - but there is a reason I'm not short it.
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  12. #17392
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stranger_Danger View Post
    The problem is every Sharesies-type buyer I know is a socialist. And a voter, in an election year.
    That’s a major assumption on your part.

    I think anyone long Air NZ is out of their mind - but there is a reason I'm not short it.
    Maybe you misinterpreted my previous comment. To clarify ... I think you will find that a large number of recent AIR investors, made a calculated decision to buy a “lottery ticket.” A long shot gamble. Not unlike a bet on a rank outsider at the races.

    A heck of a lot more interesting than buying a lotto ticket.

  13. #17393
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    flew on an air new zealand flight yesterday. The spacing between seats seems a waste of time given how people go about putting their bags in the overhead, taking them down, shuffling around during boarding, etc. When the virus gets here again, flights will be a massive spread risk.

  14. #17394
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    Say AIR starts flying to Brisbane in October with huge demand for seats. I feel sure bookings will be “organised” so that cash buyers will get high demand seats. NOTHING has been said about holders of “credit” getting equal opportunity.
    Pat
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  15. #17395
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stranger_Danger View Post
    The problem is every Sharesies-type buyer I know is a socialist. And a voter, in an election year.

    Therefore, I could easily see some absolutely necessary and urgent decisions that need to be made now being kicked down the road as ye olde BBQ keeps on burning.

    I think anyone long Air NZ is out of their mind - but there is a reason I'm not short it.
    Probably the biggest disconnect between the market and the underlying economic demand for services that exists on the entire NZX. The most amazing phenomenon is this is certainly not limited to AIR on the NZX and share prices of many airlines don't make sense.

    The interesting thing is AIR seem to be in conflict with almost everyone at the moment...aircraft manufacturers could be next. https://www.frequentbusinesstraveler...elivered-jets/

    What do AIR do with all their new aircraft orders if 777's are still sitting around corroding away and gathering dust in late 2021 ? Massive write-down of circa $400m on 777-200's coming in FY20's financials' (some of which are quite old). Could we see all the 777-300's written down in FY21 at perhaps double the cost ?...but nobody cares because that's an extraordinary item of perhaps $800m and doesn't affect future earnings...but what earnings ?

    AIR should crack on and do a massive capital raise of 2:1 at 75 cents and tap into the mad keenness of the airline recovery story before everyone wakes up and smells the coffee and realises how grim and enduring the situation really is.
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-06-2020 at 06:17 PM.
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  16. #17396
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    Seems a few aviation commentators have become social media ‘influencers’ and calling for the government to step and give AIR an interest free couple a hundred million loan and just give all the punters a refund ...problem solved
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  17. #17397
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post

    AIR should crack on and do a massive capital raise of 2:1 at 75 cents and tap into the mad keenness of the airline recovery story before everyone wakes up and smells the coffee and realises how grim and enduring the situation really is.
    See, this is where it gets really interesting.

    For the sake of argument, lets say that a lot of the upward price movement in AIR has been driven by retail investors. Lets also assume a lot of these were "one off" investments, people seeing a "once in a lifetime" chance to buy a name they know, or buying on momentum, buying because friends are, buying because they temporarily had more time and money due to lockdown etc. Assume some of this stuff is at least partially true and in the price.

    Now assume that big pocketed investors and institutions are capable of doing maths, and researching pandemics, and understanding how marginal airline economics are in even a benign environment, and can think about politics, and second and third order impacts etc. They can see that not only is Air NZ not a bargain - by most definitions, it is insolvent.

    So, how do you price a rights issue? Especially since you have the Government shareholding, the Government loan, a growing resentment about the refunds policy, in an election year?

    The key problem you have is that the people happy to chase Air NZ upwards are NOT the people capable of providing the sort of money needed to secure the long term future of the business.

    Let's say the punters manage to get it up to $2.00 (get a quote on GNUS or LK or HTZ and it is clear Air NZ is a minor insanity compared to these : $2 could happen), and no sane investor or institutional manager who wants to keep their job would touch it near that price.

    How do you price the rights issue?

    Price it at $1.50 to $1.75 and you might learn that the sort of people able to write huge cheques are not interested anywhere near that range.

    Price it at 35 to 75 cents and you will likely get your money, but a lot of the smaller new investor/Sharesies/momentum types wouldn't see this coming and would be furious at the market price after that happens. "What? We thought this couldn't fail, it has the backing of the Government!" Even worse, if a lot of these were "one off" sort of investments/investors, they may well be unwilling or unable to buy the "cheap" shares in the rights issue.

    The difficult bit is that the people paying the high price don't have the money needed to save the airline, and the people with the money to save the airline would not invest at the current price. With the clock ticking. In an election year. Oh what fun!
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  18. #17398
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    Average analyst price target one year hence is $1. To get the massive institutional support this needs it would have to be priced at a considerable discount to that.
    The company needs the money in the near future, no question about that. Makes a lot of sense to strike while the ducks are quacking, 2:1 at 75 cents underwritten by the Govt would raise about $1.6 billion and would be a smart move in my opinion but as you say, we're up for an election shortly so the Govt getting a bigger stake in AIR is not the right optics at this point in time.
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  19. #17399
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    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...kdown.amp.html

    Here we go. ...one of the main reason ....market is on the high now...

    And AIR is also one of the top 10 shares that retail bought....

  20. #17400
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    Email from our Cam this morning trying to explain/justify the situation. So many buzz words it was ‘eye watering sad’

    The more they try to justify it the deeper the hole they are digging for themselves becomes.

    Did admit they are essentially broke

    PS ... couldnt bring myself to watch the video he included.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

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