AIR - Air NZ.

[minimoke]

Only need 10,000 AIR shares to get $2,200 divvies a year, enough for a free flight to Europe, how cool is that !
Need quite a few more to afford to stay there in decent digs for a couple of weeks though

Or you could just get a job with them and get a $1800 bonus, paid out of shareholder funds

[Snow Leopard]

Good to see some sensible analysis here.

My $2.04 price is the price at or below which I would be willing to join the AIR share registry, it being a 25% discount to what I consider current fair value based on a 10 year view.

Disc: Picked the last $1.7X low and the subsequent $3.5X high, but I was probably just lucky.

Disc: Last saw an Air New Zealand plane in Feb 2016 at Pudong (Shanghai) Airport.

[Beagle]

Good to see some sensible analysis here.

My $2.04 price is the price at or below which I would be willing to join the AIR share registry, it being a 25% discount to what I consider current fair value based on a 10 year view.

Disc: Picked the last $1.7X low and the subsequent $3.5X high, but I was probably just lucky.

Disc: Last saw an Air New Zealand plane in Feb 2016 at Pudong (Shanghai) Airport.

Well done on picking high's and low's...my track record not quite so good but have ridden the turbulence with some success and did quit quite a few at ~ $3.50 ish.
So if $2.04 is a 25% discount to where you see fair value Snow Leopard 2.04 / 0.75 suggests you see fair value at $2.72 at present.
Interestingly we have seen a major reduction is where analysts see fair value this week, now $2.60 https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...407/consensus/
I'm pretty much around the same level now after the shock announcement of late January and the recent result.
I know the management team are not happy with the current level of profit and will be working towards better results ahead.

[thestg]

With all the issues AIR is having, engine problems, high fuel price & lower profits I don’t think there is going to be a big rush to buy after going XD. My best guess for a good time to buy will be 27 March at around $2.30. Quite often the share price falls below XD price with the low occurring 14 days after going XD.
My usual strategy with AIR is to buy when below $2.60 & sell when around $3.20. This left me without holding AIR between June 2017 after selling for $3.18 and 30 January this year when I broke my own rules & bought back a small parcel at $2.85 (Too quick for a sip after a long dry spell).
This strategy has returned 45% between 2013 & 2016 and 43% between 2016 & 2017. Between times I have been moving the cash earmarked for AIR between THL, HLG & SPK. At the present time all is in SPK & cash but will be cashing in SPK shortly to re-invest back into AIR.
DISC: That’s the way I invest with AIR and could also result in losses D.Y.O.R.

[Raz]

With all the issues AIR is having, engine problems, high fuel price & lower profits I don’t think there is going to be a big rush to buy after going XD. My best guess for a good time to buy will be 27 March at around $2.30. Quite often the share price falls below XD price with the low occurring 14 days after going XD.
My usual strategy with AIR is to buy when below $2.60 & sell when around $3.20. This left me without holding AIR between June 2017 after selling for $3.18 and 30 January this year when I broke my own rules & bought back a small parcel at $2.85 (Too quick for a sip after a long dry spell).
This strategy has returned 45% between 2013 & 2016 and 43% between 2016 & 2017. Between times I have been moving the cash earmarked for AIR between THL, HLG & SPK. At the present time all is in SPK & cash but will be cashing in SPK shortly to re-invest back into AIR.
DISC: That’s the way I invest with AIR and could also result in losses D.Y.O.R.

I have made more money off this share than any other on NZX except for Xero. The general trend for trading has not been too hard to pick. I just see it currently has so many more moving parts than in the last few years. Hard to pick.. yet one would expect to fall a touch more yet given the current negatives.

[Beagle]

Appreciate all the feedback and discussion. Happy to acknowledge that buying now based on a theoretical ex divvy basis at $2.36 there is some potential downside but as mentioned yesterday I don't think that's as much as 30 cents. On the other hand over the next couple of years once RR issues are fully resolved, efficiencies from the new A321 neo's kick in and one-off costs like the $40m direct costs regarding the RR issue are non repeating plus indirect non repeating RR costs, adverse currency impact this most recent period of ~ $20m if I remember correctly and about another ~ $20m to launch Chicago and Taipei new services, total non repeating including indirect RR costs could be in the region of ~ $100m per annum.
Net profit could surprise in FY21 as could a special divvy. Yes its risky as TA looks dreadful but I see opportunity in the years ahead too and I also see a 12.9% gross yield plus special coming at some stage. I think I am happy to back myself to keep slowly accumulating with a medium term 3-5 year view. Risk and reward go hand in hand.

[couta1]

BYB (Back yourself Beagle)

[Beagle]

BYB (Back yourself Beagle)

Trying to get my nose to work on this one and see if we're close to a bottom but the fumes from burned jet fuel are very strong....

Thanks mate. Early days but at ~ $2.47 cum divvy it doesn't look like my nose for value and a feed has been too badly affected by the spent jet fuel fumes...
Possibly should have saved the barking for when I'd finished accumulating...

[macduffy]

Thanks mate. Early days but at ~ $2.47 cum divvy it doesn't look like my nose for value and a feed has been too badly affected by the spent jet fuel fumes...
Possibly should have saved the barking for when I'd finished accumulating...

Accumulation is usually followed by distribution.

[emveha]

A small blessing: at least Air New Zealand doesn't operate any 737 MAX.