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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #11701
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    The trouble with FA is you're constantly consumed with 'why' the SP moves in its mysterious ways. Sometimes that looks like you're chasing your tail, whereas a simple chart says 'whoopee' hold until it doesn't make sense losing capital, whenever that is.

  2. #11702
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Well the Nervous Nellies are back.!
    The sp ,$2.18, has fallen below the 200 day EMA [moving average] $2.20.
    We live in interesting times.?
    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Yes, the chart looks ominous. Hoop nailed the top, question is where to from here.
    Posted 23 January 2017 when SP was just $2.18. Clearly Percy thought it was going lower and you didn't seem to know one way or the other, (acknowledge later posts may have expressed a different view). The problem with a singular focus on TA is you risk overlooking the extreme value that FA can highlight. I prefer it when TA and FA line up concurrently but at my heart I will always believe that FA is a better leading indicator on where a SP is likely to go. (Accept others will have different views and that's fine) No argument TA is a great go too tool as well, but arguably involves an even more constant focus than fundamental analysis. Great times in recent months are always the best when both TA and FA tell one the same rewarding answer
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-07-2017 at 07:25 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #11703
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    Goodness gracious me - Johnny boy gets 'knighted' in Australia

    Another $ on the shareprice

    Excuse me - while I go and have a chunder. You'll be thrilled too eh Couts

    Extract -

    Sir John Key will be recognised with Australia's highest honour at a ceremony tomorrow attended by his old friend Malcolm Turnbull, Australia's Prime Minister.

    Key will be appointed an honorary Companion in the Order of Australia in Canberra for his "eminent service to Australia-New Zealand relations".

    A Companion is the highest ranking grade in the Order and 35 Australians every year can be appointed. Honorary appointments have been made to international figures with a close relationship with Australia.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11891823
    A valuation multiple is nothing but shorthand for a proper analysis of long-term discounted cash flows. Using them is just being lazy.

  4. #11704
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Posted 23 January 2017 when SP was just $2.18. Clearly Percy thought it was going lower and you didn't seem to know one way or the other, (acknowledge later posts may have expressed a different view). The problem with a singular focus on TA is you risk overlooking the extreme value that FA can highlight. I prefer it when TA and FA line up concurrently but at my heart I will always believe that FA is a better leading indicator on where a SP is likely to go. (Accept others will have different views and that's fine) No argument TA is a great go too tool as well, but arguably involves an even more constant focus than fundamental analysis. Great times in recent months are always the best when both TA and FA tell one the same rewarding answer
    You can drag up any older posts but you can't say definitively whether anyone acted on it. Seems a bit defensive to me. TA acts when it's time to act, the 100dma is a poor decider by itself, albeit informative which some use as their token gesture to TA. Point is that TA like FA will be riding the breakout upwards, until it isn't. Except TA don't wonder about why, they just act on what is. When they choose to do so.

  5. #11705
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    Chill out guys. Heading to $4. Numbers are to strong. You guys will find out in 4 weeks times!!!

  6. #11706
    Harimau Yang Terunggul Paper Tiger's Avatar
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    Default B; B; B; BW. Lol3

    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    It is an airline and thus, by definition, is very over-priced...
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Overpriced relative to what other airline PT ? 10 year average PE is 11 and unless my steam powered abacus is due for some lubricant 11 x 37 cps = $4.07 and that's based on $575m before tax, what if they do more than $600m ?
    Not only am I:
    baffled by your basic lack of a sense of humour and;
    bemused by your inability to understand basic English but I am;
    beyond belief of what passes for your idea of basic company valuation.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger

    Disc: $600m?

  7. #11707
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Certainly a plausible explanation but by way of anecdotal evidence since 1 May AIR up from $2.50 to $3.53 a 41.2% increase whereas QAN up from $4.35 to $5.49 a 26.2% increase.
    Very good observation and comparison. Thanks Beagle.

  8. #11708
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Appointment was announced 1 May 2017 when the SP was $2.50. I'd speculate your theory has a lot of merit. Happy holder, still trades on a very sensible PE unlike a LOT of other N.Z. stocks.
    The PE is very reasonable not in NZX but around the world too!

  9. #11709
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eval View Post
    Chill out guys. Heading to $4. Numbers are to strong. You guys will find out in 4 weeks times!!!
    Eval, you keep on saying the results announcement next month we will see strong numbers, mind to tell us more?

  10. #11710
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Goodness gracious me - Johnny boy gets 'knighted' in Australia

    Another $ on the shareprice

    Excuse me - while I go and have a chunder. You'll be thrilled too eh Couts

    Extract -

    Sir John Key will be recognised with Australia's highest honour at a ceremony tomorrow attended by his old friend Malcolm Turnbull, Australia's Prime Minister.

    Key will be appointed an honorary Companion in the Order of Australia in Canberra for his "eminent service to Australia-New Zealand relations".

    A Companion is the highest ranking grade in the Order and 35 Australians every year can be appointed. Honorary appointments have been made to international figures with a close relationship with Australia.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11891823
    Yes, caught up with that news this morning on ZB, Larry Williams talking to Sir John who is over Aus for the ceremony.

    May not add a dollar to the current sp but surely will generate good vibes of him being on AIR board.
    Last edited by sb9; 18-07-2017 at 08:02 AM.

  11. #11711
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Yes, caught up with that news this morning on ZB, Larry Williams talking to Sir Key who is over Aus for the ceremony.

    May not add a dollar to the current sp but surely will generate good vibes of him being on AIR board.
    Hmm - it's Sir John, not Sir Key ... but otherwise not sure about the good vibes. John Key cashing in an Australian award for "furthering the cooperation" while ordinary Kiwis get the boot from our Australian "friends" - incarcerated over there without charge, evicted, allowed to pay the full taxes but stripped of any rights ... Not a good look. Sir John would do well to decline this "honour".
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  12. #11712
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Impressive. 9 out of the past 10 months up (so far), a study in volatility and long term technical breakdowns / breakouts for the chartists.

    Log Scale Monthly, 6EMA/10EMA (approximates 50/200EMA). $3.74 next technical resistance target.
    Attachment 8994

    Check stops.
    BAA
    Awesome chart

    Containing the desire of getting the felt pen out and drawing over all the up and down lines

    AIR share price never 'stable' - it always is going up steeply or going down sharply.

    Spooky eh - but typical behaviour of a true cyclical.

    Where to from here - 400 and then 500 ...........or is it one of those going down sharply periods and back to 200 or less.

    Remember Mr P - the market giveth, but the market also taketh away (quickly)

    As baa_baa says watch those stops
    A valuation multiple is nothing but shorthand for a proper analysis of long-term discounted cash flows. Using them is just being lazy.

  13. #11713
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Hmm - it's Sir John, not Sir Key ... but otherwise not sure about the good vibes. John Key cashing in an Australian award for "furthering the cooperation" while ordinary Kiwis get the boot from our Australian "friends" - incarcerated over there without charge, evicted, allowed to pay the full taxes but stripped of any rights ... Not a good look. Sir John would do well to decline this "honour".
    Ok, corrected duly...early morning blues....

    However, each of us are entitled to our own opinion, my perspective is what I put out there...

  14. #11714
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Hmm - it's Sir John, not Sir Key ... but otherwise not sure about the good vibes. John Key cashing in an Australian award for "furthering the cooperation" while ordinary Kiwis get the boot from our Australian "friends" - incarcerated over there without charge, evicted, allowed to pay the full taxes but stripped of any rights ... Not a good look. Sir John would do well to decline this "honour".
    Agreed. Good post.

  15. #11715
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTI View Post
    Eval, you keep on saying the results announcement next month we will see strong numbers, mind to tell us more?
    GTI, can't disclosed here but for sure some of the anti-AIR going to be very very disappointed this time around. few more weeks.

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