AIR - Air NZ.

[Sideshow Bob]

does air fly to sth korea ? a lot of countries have just issued travel alerts to not fly there today.

Page 2 of the announcement - "The airline announces today that services to Seoul will be temporarily suspended from 7 March through the end of June."

[Beagle]

Disc: I sold a while back at $2.98 and managed to get a short position on this more recently.

I see it having the potential to test multi years lows established in 2016 of ~ $1.75

[Hoop]

Disc: I sold a while back at $2.98 and managed to get a short position on this more recently.

I see it having the potential to test multi years lows established many years ago of $1.75

Well done

[Beagle]

Thanks Hoop. Once we are eventually over the fear of flying with possible virus spread we have this sort of thing to "look forward too" as airlines claw back some profit https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/ne...ectid=12311083

[winner69]

No divie from AIR would stuff up Robertson’s Budget surplus expectations. (On top of lower AIRprofits)

Even worse if he had to stump up with a $100m at a capital raise.

[Beagle]

No divie from AIR would stuff up Robertson’s Budget surplus expectations. (On top of lower AIRprofits)

Even worse if he had to stump up with a $100m at a capital raise.

Capital raise can't be ruled out if the airline starts losing money. Interestingly they made money throughout the GFC but this is a whole new test and unlike the GFC in regard to flying this time its not people's finances they're worried about, its their health.

[winner69]

Capital raise can't be ruled out if the airline starts losing money. Interestingly they made money throughout the GFC but this is a whole new test and unlike the GFC in regard to flying this time its not people's finances they're worried about, its their health.

Yep made money through the GFC but struggled post GFC -- did it tke a while to get over things? or was that when oil went balliatic?

But whatever this is going to be the worst year for zonks for AIR ...and not worthy of lofty share price

[Beagle]

Yep made money through the GFC but struggled post GFC -- did it tke a while to get over things? or was that when oil went balliatic?

But whatever this is going to be the worst year for zonks for AIR ...and not worthy of lofty share price

Thanks for the questions and chart. I wish I had answers but only more questions.
Not sure why eps was so sluggish after the GFC ? Maybe it took people and business years to regain confidence again to spend money on flying ? Perhaps we can learn something from this history about how long it might take people to start travelling again after this virus, (assuming it becomes a world-wide pandemic which is looking more likely every day) ? If so, what are the implications for demand in FY21 and FY22 and earnings for those years if any ?
What do these risks suggest about the dividend outlook ?

[iceman]

Thanks for the questions and chart. I wish I had answers but only more questions.
Not sure why eps was so sluggish after the GFC ? Maybe it took people and business years to regain confidence again to spend money on flying ? Perhaps we can learn something from this history about how long it might take people to start travelling again after this virus, (assuming it becomes a world-wide pandemic which is looking more likely every day) ? If so, what are the implications for demand in FY21 and FY22 and earnings for those years if any ?
What do these risks suggest about the dividend outlook ?

I think it would be prudent for AIR, given the unprecedented uncertainties in front of them, to reduce or even suspend the dividend immediately. It wouldn't be liked much by the market but would be the right thing to do.

[winner69]

Beagle me old mate

The June 11 year was affected by ChCh and Japan quakes and 'sustained high fuel prices'

Worth noting that big events like those quakes turned a half year npbt of $112m profit into a full year loss of $75m - things can change fast eh