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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #16181
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    I expect huge demand from corporate's as soon as they can get off the ground,but apart from that it's going to be pretty grim for AIR,the public have been fed a continuous barrage of news about how the virus was spread from people travelling by air.The general public are going to be very wary of air travel for a good time to come.

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    From our perspective, we are likely to keep our corporate policy highly conservative for 6-12 months subsequent to the travel restrictions being lifted. Even then, I think video conferencing will become the norm with F2F being the exception. Still early days yet though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flugenbear View Post
    Not sure dreamcatcher, but I think that's more realistic as to where the market is pricing this.
    I don't think investors have woken up to the fact the aviation industry will not be same when we emerge from this pandemic.
    The best case scenario is we get a vaccine in a years time. Then slowly the industry recovers.
    My guess AIR will need another billion. I think in the coming months there will be mass layoffs, well beyond the current 30%, which will help stem the bleeding of cash. Either way, it's not a pretty picture.

    Correct and the CEO has flagged last week that the 30% will be well exceeded.

    Lease aircraft will go.

  4. #16184
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    Quote Originally Posted by steveb View Post
    I expect huge demand from corporate's as soon as they can get off the ground,but apart from that it's going to be pretty grim for AIR,the public have been fed a continuous barrage of news about how the virus was spread from people travelling by air.The general public are going to be very wary of air travel for a good time to come.
    I would think that corporates being very risk adverse whe it comes to air travel ...and it will take years to get back to the days when every man and his dog thought they were indispensable and had to jet everywhere
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse View Post
    It's embarrassing compared to some competitor offerings. Cant beat Qatar Qsuite if going to Europe.
    I think that's a very fair comment. Really the nightmare liner has these 3 classes of seats, (Marketing term then fair description)
    Business Premier = premium economy
    Premium economy = normal economy
    economy = we really mean it, this is as economical seating as we can possibly get away with.

    Also really embarrassing is the up to 9% interest rate AIR is being charged, (when the Govt can borrow as low as 0.5% with Kiwi Bonds) v Qantas at 2.75%.
    N.Z. Govt are effectively clipping their wings.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #16186
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    ... and you cant really blame Greg

    I'm hoping that Govt are trying to justify this to the public by being so business minded, but I fear it is a lifeline round the throat for govt control
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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    Loan terms were negotiated on an arms length basis with independent advisors ....whatever that means

    Shylock rates because they really stuffed ....go to lender of resort and hope he’s not to tough.

    What govt borrows at and what aussie banks lend to Qantas at irrelevant ..except a sign of the desperate situation AIR is in
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    ... and you cant really blame Greg

    I'm hoping that Govt are trying to justify this to the public by being so business minded, but I fear it is a lifeline round the throat for govt control
    I have a theory that at that moment in time Labour did not want to be seen as propping up big business unless it was on arms length commercial terms. Since then they seem to have had a rethink and propping up any business that keeps people employed is seen as being politically correct.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #16189
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Loan terms were negotiated on an arms length basis with independent advisors ....whatever that means

    Shylock rates because they really stuffed ....go to lender of resort and hope he’s not to tough.

    What govt borrows at and what aussie banks lend to Qantas at irrelevant ..except a sign of the desperate situation AIR is in
    I guess this buys them time. It gives them certainty for a few months, which should be enough time to either sort out a rights issue or alternative finance. I'm sure they are looking at both of those options right now for the near future.

  10. #16190
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    Singapore airlines one of the first cab's off the rank with a massive deeply discounted rights issue. https://www.theedgesingapore.com/new...vertible-bonds

    Check out how much of their fleet is currently grounded !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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