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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #10121
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    If there are like me.. already sold a third with another third will trigger under certain SP movement. I think a lot will have already altered what was an oversized parcel on the recovery.

    I think the reporting result will be ok and will not be our concern however our mate Trump may make it a traders paradise shortly, may be worth the title, the year of the trader in time :-)
    Still holding same oversized parcel, recent high of $2.27 was still under my average buy in price by a few cents. I reckon it will hit $2.35 before going Ex divvy though.

  2. #10122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    If there are like me.. already sold a third with another third will trigger under certain SP movement. I think a lot will have already altered what was an oversized parcel on the recovery.

    I think the reporting result will be ok and will not be our concern however our mate Trump may make it a traders paradise shortly, may be worth the title, the year of the trader in time :-)
    I thought about it but I don't hold as much as I used to when it was performing well or when catching the knife on the down fall. I think with tourism the way it is competition may not have the substantial impact, still there as per operating stats but I think the interim results will be reasonable and suggest a good divvy although after the last generous special maybe the purse strings will be a bit tighter looking ahead at potentially more challenging times.

    Yep, Trump is a loose canon, a tweet here and there can bring many to their knees in an instant.

  3. #10123
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    Bought back in today at $2.17. Only a modest holding. Hopefully an as expected div. I look forward to hearing everyones thoughts over the coming days. Just a quick one, when are results expected?

  4. #10124
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    Quote Originally Posted by simjp81 View Post
    Bought back in today at $2.17. Only a modest holding. Hopefully an as expected div. I look forward to hearing everyones thoughts over the coming days. Just a quick one, when are results expected?
    23/02/17
    Interim 2017 Earnings Release

  5. #10125
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    Just noticed that consensus and recommendations on 4traders slipped during last week. New 12 month consensus is $2.10 (down from $2.16) and new recommendation is a straight "hold" (5 down from 5.4); Analyst revenue assumptions dropped by roughly $30m for each of the next 3 years and EPS assumptions (minus 1 cent) as well as dividend assumptions for this year (slightly) reduced;

    SP pattern could develop into a new "mini" H&S - but what do I know?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 23-01-2017 at 09:01 AM. Reason: added revenue changes
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #10126
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Just noticed that consensus and recommendations on 4traders slipped during last week. New 12 month consensus is $2.10 (down from $2.16) and new recommendation is a straight "hold" (5 down from 5.4); Analyst revenue assumptions dropped by roughly $30m for each of the next 3 years and EPS assumptions (minus 1 cent) as well as dividend assumptions for this year (slightly) reduced;

    SP pattern could develop into a new "mini" H&S - but what do I know?
    As I've said before, these guys are just flipping coins and wouldn't really have a clue, so BP you can't possibly know less than them. PS-Looking forward to upcoming results, might even top up.
    Last edited by couta1; 23-01-2017 at 09:15 AM.

  7. #10127
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    As I've said before, these guys are just flipping coins and wouldn't really have a clue, so BP you can't possibly know less than them. PS-Looking forward to upcoming results, might even top up.
    Those op stats for Dec should be out anytime and might give an indication of how things are trucking along...

  8. #10128
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    As I've said before, these guys are just flipping coins and wouldn't really have a clue, so BP you can't possibly know less than them. PS-Looking forward to upcoming results, might even top up.
    couta, with all due respect ... while it is easy and fashionable to beat up analysts, for the bunch of stocks I follow they hit the target price to roughly 60% over the last handful of years (meaning that the SP reaches or exceeds the consensus value at least once in the 12 month forecast window, excluding any shares where they predict a fall). This means, they are not perfect, but their predictions do add value.

    Looking at AIR: consensus forecast for December 2016 (i.e made in December 2015) was $3.03. While AIR's highest SP in this month was $2.20, the share reached a high in January 2016 of $3.23 ... i.e. selling at that time you would have made money trusting the analysts

    As well - as far back as I can see picked the analysts for AIR in the past always target prices too high (if we look not a the 12 month period, but only at the target month). Over the 12 month window, they have been surprisingly accurate for AIR (in most 12 month periods in the last year less than 10% deviation from the target). Why do you think this suddenly changed?
    ----
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  9. #10129
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Just noticed that consensus and recommendations on 4traders slipped during last week. New 12 month consensus is $2.10 (down from $2.16) and new recommendation is a straight "hold" (5 down from 5.4); Analyst revenue assumptions dropped by roughly $30m for each of the next 3 years and EPS assumptions (minus 1 cent) as well as dividend assumptions for this year (slightly) reduced;

    SP pattern could develop into a new "mini" H&S - but what do I know?
    Concentrating on the negative there BP. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/ Forecast net profit before tax for FY18 is now $501m the same as for FY17, so a significant upgrade from the expected profit decline that most analysts have previously been forecasting for FY18. Their FY19 guess, (yes it really is a guess that far out in this industry), has also gone up slightly to $422m. FY18 is consistent with my view that yields are stabilizing and that the initial period of intense competition from new entrants to the N.Z. market won't last forever. Forecasts are consistent with their ability to pay 20 cps fully imputed dividends for the next three years contemporaneously with completing their major fleet modernization program.
    Last edited by Beagle; 23-01-2017 at 11:31 AM.
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  10. #10130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Concentrating on the negative there BP. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/ Forecast net profit before tax for FY18 is now $501m the same as for FY17, so a significant upgrade from the expected profit decline that most analysts have previously been forecasting for FY18. Their FY19 guess, (yes it really is a guess that far out in this industry), has also gone up slightly to $422m. FY18 is consistent with my view that yields are stabilizing and that the initial period of intense competition from new entrants to the N.Z. market won't last forever. Forecasts are consistent with their ability to pay 20 cps fully imputed dividends for the next three years contemporaneously with completing their major fleet modernization program.
    Did you notice that on the relevant table the FY18 EBT is higher than the FY18 EBIT (negative interest?) and that EBIT & NPAT for FY18 is less than FY17 (*)? They might have mixed up some numbers, somewhat invalidating your positive assumptions for 2018.

    What I want to point out - you are very welcome to be optimistic and put your money where your mouth is ... but it might be a good idea to review whether this optimism is based on solid data or just finger trouble.

    (*) disclosure ... a friendly fellow poster who wants to be unnamed pointed me to this issue before I saw your post ;
    ----
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