AIR - Air NZ.

[workingdad]

That ESTA was a good money spinner for them but cant imagine it being good for the US economy to shut down tourism like that which Trump as much as a loose cannon he is there does seem to be an impetus on anything good for the USA economy. I certainly wont go there once my current ESTA runs out or is cancelled if they implement anything like that..... So yep, AIR and other airlines on those routes will no doubt feel some effect.

Bit of an ugly day for AIR, plenty cashing in on the gains after riding the SP up and as we know, FA doesn't seem to account for much when it comes to AIR, what will tomorrow bring, bargain hunters or more jumping ship? I am not putting any money on it that's for sure.

[Arbroath]

From the table accompanying the Dec release - all figures for the group, i.e. total sales and are as follows where X - last years sales YTD.

RPK's are up 5.5% so X x 1.055 = 1.055. "Removing the impact of foreign exchange group wide yields YTD have decreased 7.9%"
Therefore 1.055 X at 7.9% lower average yield gives 1.055 x .921 = X = 0.971655.

Note you do not need to account for lower loads as this is already factored into RPK's, i.e. RPK's are not revenue per available seat kilometers (RASK's).

Therefore passenger sales have fallen 2.83% in currency adjusted dollar terms for the year to date, (a vastly different figure than what has been inaccurately reported today). That still leaves freight, engineering and other sales and the profit they made on the disposal of their stake in VAL this half as compared to the carrying value as at 30 June 2016.

Of course they flew further but were using more efficient planes and fuel was cheaper than last year.

Good points Roger. Only time will tell but my analysis points to Craig's being overly negative. There's still almost 5 months of the year to go but my guess based on RPKs, yields, fuel, more efficient planes etc is they they'll make $500-550m NPBT. I'd say I'm $100m more optimistic than Craig's but one of us will be wide of the mark.

[Xerof]

Well, I'm hearing that the Trumposity is about to sign a rescindment of the ESTA regulations, so henceforth anyone wanting to visit the USA will have to attend a mano a mano interview at an American embassy, I'm thinking that this isn't going to be great for AIR. Thoughts?

I'm hearing that report has since been rescinded - f'ing US media got it wrong. The Visa waiver programme remains for Kiwi's and other sensible people who are touring, but those wanting to work will need a more in-depth scan by border patrol. no drama's, as you were

[Poet]

I'm hearing that report has since been rescinded - f'ing US media got it wrong. The Visa waiver programme remains for Kiwi's and other sensible people who are touring, but those wanting to work will need a more in-depth scan by border patrol. no drama's, as you were

Well that's a relief, thanks for the clarification X.

[JeremyALD]

I wonder if travel to Wellington was impacted by the earthquakes since November.

I for one used to travel to work with AIR NZ every two weeks to NZ Post House. Since the earthquake I've been just twice as our building was impacted. I noted that prices to Wellington dropped over November and December to Wellington as not as many businesses were travelling there (where AIR NZ often charge as much as $350 one way) on peak flights.

That may have a small impact on total domestic revenue. I imagine things will be back to normal now as businesses get back to offices.

[Master98]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11789625
FYI.

[couta1]

Good points Roger. Only time will tell but my analysis points to Craig's being overly negative. There's still almost 5 months of the year to go but my guess based on RPKs, yields, fuel, more efficient planes etc is they they'll make $500-550m NPBT. I'd say I'm $100m more optimistic than Craig's but one of us will be wide of the mark.

Agree, great work Roger and i share your sentiments Arbroath, many have overlooked just how good Air are going to do on the domestic front this year. I'm amazed that people give an analyst so much kudos and sell down because of his opinion, I almost feel sorry for them.

[boysy]

Agree, great work Roger and i share your sentiments Arbroath, many have overlooked just how good Air are going to do on the domestic front this year. I'm amazed that people give an analyst so much kudos and sell down because of his opinion, I almost feel sorry for them.

Have to laugh at your post, you would rather buyers listen to anonymous posters (who are clearly long air) than professionals who put their name and reputation behind their analysis.

[couta1]

Have to laugh at your post, you would rather buyers listen to anonymous posters (who are clearly long air) than professionals who put their name and reputation behind their analysis.

Those professionals make money from Churn, they don't give a toss about people losing money unecessarily, unlike the genuine posters on here whose primary motivation is to help others and take the time to do so(This includes sharing mistakes not just successes)

[sb9]

Whichever way you slice and dice the numbers 10c divvy for this half is sure thing I reckon.....